BofA Flags Rising Oversupply Risk in Natural Gas, Trims View on National Fuel Gas (NFG)

National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE:NFG) is included among the 14 Best Mid-Cap Dividend Stocks to Buy Now.

On January 16, BofA trimmed its price target on National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE:NFG) to $99 from $102. It maintained an Underperform rating on the stock. The firm noted that optimism around natural gas has stayed strong for roughly the past 18 months, but it believes the market could start facing a higher risk of oversupply by 2027. That view, along with lower gas price forecasts, led BofA to cut its price targets across the gas-heavy E&P group by an average of about 12%.

On December 31, National Fuel Gas Distribution filed its annual Purchased Gas Cost update with the Pennsylvania PUC, projecting higher natural gas supply costs for Aug. 1, 2026, through July 31, 2027. If approved, overall gas supply charges would rise by about $71.49 per year, increasing a typical residential customer’s bill from $87.18 to $93.13 per month (a 6.83% increase) starting Aug. 1, 2026.

The company attributes the increase mainly to expected higher natural gas purchase and transmission costs, with NYMEX forecasting higher gas prices next winter compared with the prior 12-month average ending Nov. 30, 2025. National Fuel notes it is legally required to secure reasonably priced supply and pass market costs through to customers with no markup, subject to PUC review and approval. After approval, rates would be adjusted quarterly based on actual market conditions.

National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE:NFG) is a diversified, integrated energy business with a broad natural gas footprint. The company operates across the value chain, including production, gathering, transportation, storage, and distribution.

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