BMO Lowers Vistra (VST) Target to $230 but Keeps Outperform Rating

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) is one of the AI Stocks Analysts Are Watching Closely. On January 6, BMO Capital analyst James Thalacker lowered the price target on the stock to $230.00 (from $245.00) while maintaining its “Outperform” rating.

The lowered target follows Vistra’s Cogentrix deal, with the firm positive  on the stock as it sees Vistra’s long-term cash growth intact.

The firm discussed Vistra’s recent agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy, comprising 10 natural gas-fired power plants, from Quantum Capital Group for about $4.7 billion, to meet growing power demand.

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The deal, worth an estimated $4 billion, includes a $2.3bn cash consideration/~$0.9bn of Vistra stock (priced at $185/share), and the assumption of an estimated $1.5 billion of debt at Cogentrix, net of expected tax benefits with an estimated NPV of approximately $0.7 billion.

Vistra anticipates the deal to close mid-to-late 2026, according to the announcement.

“We raise our 2027-2030 adj. EBITDA estimates to/from $8,204/$7,652bn, $8,334/$7,725bn, $8,510/$7,869bn, and FCFbG to/from $4,814/$4,523bn, $5,027/$4,580bn, and $5,245/$4,694bn. Our target price moves to $230. Reiterate Outperform.”

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