We came across a bullish thesis on Bloom Energy Corporation on Arya’s Substack by Arya. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BE. Bloom Energy Corporation’s share was trading at $152.31 as of January 27th. BE’s trailing and forward P/E were 1.90k and 175.44 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A Bloom Energy power generation system. Photo from Bloom Energy website
Bloom Energy is solidifying its position as a leading provider of on-site power for critical loads, with a strong competitive advantage in reliability, efficiency, and deployability. Its focus on stationary fuel cell solutions has allowed it to deploy over 1.5 GW, far outpacing peers. While large incumbents like Cummins or generator OEMs could enter the market, they have moved cautiously, leaving Bloom in a leading position with blue-chip clients. As the market expands, multiple winners are possible, but Bloom’s early momentum and proven solutions give it a structural advantage.
Bloom’s financial performance has improved dramatically over the past 12–18 months, moving from heavy losses toward profitability. Revenue reached $519M in Q3 2025, up 57.1% YoY, with the company on track for $1.8–2.0B for the full year. Product sales dominate, with service revenue growing and showing positive gross margins (~14% non-GAAP in Q3). GAAP gross margin improved to 29.2%, non-GAAP 30.4%, with product margins around 36%. Operating leverage is evident: Q3 2025 GAAP operating income was $7.8M, adjusted operating income $46.2M, and net loss for 2024 was only $29M, down from ~$300M in 2023. Free cash flow is approaching breakeven, with positive operating cash flow for four consecutive quarters.
Debt stands at ~$300–400M, with gross cash around $300M. Debt-to-capital is ~65%, but coverage is improving (times interest earned ~1.3x). Improved EBITDA and positive cash flow allow the company to fund growth internally, with equity raises as an optional lever if needed.
Bloom’s stock has surged parabolically, reaching intraday peaks above $140 in late 2025 from $15 a year prior. Base-case valuation suggests normalized multiples could lead to modest gains, while upside scenarios tied to continued revenue growth could push valuations higher. Key risks include technology failures, competitive advances, customer concentration, regulatory changes, fuel price volatility, supply chain execution, and financial or macro shocks. Invalidation triggers include revenue declines, missed backlog targets, or major operational failures.
Bloom Energy is positioned at the intersection of structural demand for resilient, clean, on-site power and improving operational and financial strength. The company is transitioning from a niche clean-tech player to a core infrastructure provider for the digital economy. With superior technology, a large deployment lead, and supportive policy tailwinds, Bloom’s multi-year growth runway is clear. While risks remain, current indicators suggest the company is on a positive trajectory, making it an attractive play in the emerging on-site energy market.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) by Tiny Stock Ninja in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s hydrogen production expansion, European electrolyzer project pipeline, and improving gross margins despite ongoing unprofitability. PLUG’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 208.97% since our coverage. Arya shares a similar view emphasizing Bloom Energy’s accelerating path to profitability, strong on-site power deployments, and structural advantage in stationary fuel cells.
Bloom Energy Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 64 hedge fund portfolios held BE at the end of the third quarter which was 43 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of BE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than BE and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
