BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY): A Bull Case Theory

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We came across a bullish thesis on BlackSky Technology Inc. on Hidden Market Gems’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BKSY. BlackSky Technology Inc.’s share was trading at $25.97 as of July 16th.

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BlackSky Technology, a Herndon-based space intelligence firm, operates at the intersection of satellite imagery, real-time analytics, and national security. Unlike traditional satellite players, BlackSky sells not just images but tactical insight. Its Gen-3 satellite constellation captures 35cm resolution images up to 15 times daily, with AI-enhanced analytics delivered within 90 minutes.

In 2024, the company reached $102.1M in revenue, up 8% YoY—its fourth consecutive year of growth—driven largely by a +82% surge in U.S. government revenue, now comprising 60% of its mix. Anchored by a $1B+ NRO contract, BlackSky is expanding its footprint among U.S. defense agencies and allied governments.

Though still unprofitable, the company is progressing toward breakeven: adjusted EBITDA improved nearly 90% to -$1.26M, net loss narrowed, and operating costs rose modestly (+2.4%) despite satellite deployments. Liquidity stands at $77M, with manageable debt of $115M and a $366M backlog. BlackSky controls every aspect of its stack—from satellite to software—ensuring speed, security, and integration, key in high-stakes intelligence.

Its Spectra platform autonomously processes over a million daily observations, flagging anomalies without human prompt. Strategically, BlackSky is positioned for a GEOINT market expected to grow to $209B by 2030. It thrives in “gray zone” conflicts and benefits from rising geopolitical distrust of Chinese and Russian tech.

Civilian demand for Earth intelligence is also accelerating across ESG, climate, and logistics applications. With differentiated infrastructure, a sticky government client base, and growing automation, BlackSky offers an emerging defense-tech story with multiple structural tailwinds and the potential to evolve into a sovereign, AI-native geospatial leader.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) by KevinLMak in December 2024, which highlighted the company’s operational leverage, strong U.S. government ties, and Gen3 satellite potential. The stock has appreciated ~119% since. This is because Gen3 execution and government contracts played out. Hidden Market Gems shares a similar view but emphasizes real-time intelligence and EBITDA stabilization.

BlackSky Technology Inc.  is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 9 hedge fund portfolios held BKSY at the end of the first quarter which was 10 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of BKSY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than BKSY and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.