David Harding is a British hedge fund manager and physicist by training, studied natural sciences at St. Catharine’s College, University of Cambridge, with a focus on theoretical physics. His education in empirical science would go on to inform his pioneering approach to financial markets. Harding began his career in finance in the mid-1980s, working at Sabre Fund Management. At Sabre, he was instrumental in developing early systematic trading models that used statistical analysis to identify patterns in market behavior. This experience laid the foundation for his future endeavors in quantitative finance.
In 1997, he established Winton Capital Management (now Winton Group), with the goal of applying scientific research and data-driven techniques to financial markets. Under Harding’s leadership, Winton grew rapidly, at one point managing over $28 billion in assets. The firm became one of the most prominent names in the quantitative hedge fund space, known for its commitment to rigorous data analysis and skepticism toward discretionary trading. Winton’s strategies typically involve global futures and equities, relying on vast historical datasets and algorithmic models rather than human intuition.
In recent years, Harding’s firm has experienced a resurgence. After a significant downturn, Winton rebounded with a 47% return in 2022, marking its best performance since the financial crisis. As of the end of last year, the firm’s assets under management had risen to $12.3 billion, reflecting a strong recovery. Winton remains committed to its systematic, research-driven approach. The firm’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and its focus on long-term trends suggest potential for sustained performance in the future.
At the LSEG Lipper Fund Awards 2024, Winton Capital Management was honored with the “Best Fund over 3 Years” award in the Managed Futures category. This accolade recognizes the firm’s outstanding risk-adjusted performance over a three-year period. The Awards are based on the Lipper Leader rating for Consistent Return, which evaluates funds using a risk-adjusted performance measure over multiple non-overlapping periods. This methodology ensures that the winners have provided superior consistency and risk-adjusted returns compared to similar funds. This recognition underscores Winton’s commitment to delivering high-quality, systematic investment strategies that prioritize consistent performance for investors.
David Harding of Winton Capital Management
Our Methodology
For this list, we picked stocks from Winston Group’s 13F portfolio as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. We listed them in the ascending order of analysts’ average upside potential. These equities are also popular among other hedge funds.
Note: All data was recorded on April 29, 2025.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Billionaire David Harding’s 10 Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential
10. Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:LSCC)
Winton Group’s stake: $17,680,805
Upside Potential: 33.12%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 41
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:LSCC) develops low-power programmable logic devices and system solutions for global markets including Communications, Computing, Industrial, Automotive, and Consumer sectors. Their FPGAs support key functions such as control, connectivity, compute, and hardware security. With strengths in small form factor, energy efficiency, and I/O expansion, Lattice is positioned to benefit from trends like 5G, AI, smart devices, and increased hardware security needs. Its solutions are especially suited for edge-to-cloud applications, offering flexibility, performance, and integration in compact, cost-efficient packages.
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:LSCC) continues to strengthen its position in the fast-growing small- and mid-range FPGA market, driven by demand across AI, industrial automation, data centers, automotive, and IoT. Despite a revenue decline in 2024 due to inventory normalization, Lattice maintained strong margins, achieved record design wins, launched new products like Nexus 2 and Avant devices, and improved customer demand trends. With increased backlog and a book-to-bill ratio over 1, Lattice is optimistic about a U-shaped recovery and future growth. The company’s strategic workforce realignment expanded product offerings, and solid financial discipline. As a result, Lattice is positioned for a recovery in 2025 and targets 15–20% long-term revenue growth beginning in 2026.
9. Victoria’s Secret & Co. (NYSE:VSCO)
Winton Group’s stake: $7,992,030
Upside Potential: 33.36%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 46
Victoria’s Secret & Co. (NYSE:VSCO) is a global specialty retailer of women’s intimate apparel and beauty products through its Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Adore Me brands. The company operates over 880 stores in the U.S., Canada, and China, alongside 500+ international franchise and licensed locations. It also sells through major digital platforms. In 2022, the company acquired Adore Me, a digital-first, size-inclusive lingerie brand. Victoria’s Secret also holds a majority stake in a joint venture with Regina Miracle to run its China business.
Victoria’s Secret & Co. (NYSE:VSCO) is driving growth by modernizing its core brands—Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Beauty—focusing on inclusive design, customer engagement, and strategic collaborations. The refreshed Very Sexy collection and strong swimwear and sport lines showcase its expertise in fit and innovation. PINK is evolving to recapture Gen Z with lifestyle offerings and trend-driven products. Beauty, led by Bombshell, remains a standout. The company is strengthening its market positioning through digital strategy, distinct brand identities, and leadership realignment. Despite economic challenges, Victoria’s Secret & Co.(NYSE:VSCO) is committed to long-term growth with a customer-centric, agile, and performance-focused operating model.
8. Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE:ANET)
Winton Group’s stake: $18,011,085
Upside Potential: 35.85%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 78
Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE:ANET) leads in client-to-cloud networking, serving data center, campus, and AI environments with high-performance, scalable, and secure solutions. Its core platform, EOS®, enables automation, programmability, and efficiency. Arista serves major customers like Meta and Microsoft and holds leadership in high-speed Ethernet switching. Its product portfolio spans core networking, cognitive adjacencies, and cognitive software. Amid digital transformation and AI growth, Arista addresses demand with cloud-optimized architectures and AI-specific solutions, including AVA, a natural language AI tool for network operations and observability.
Rosenblatt Securities upgraded its rating on Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE:ANET) from Sell to Neutral on April 29, highlighting two main factors behind the change. Firstly, the firm noted Arista’s potential to endure a broader economic downturn, with its outlook for late 2025 and into 2026 remaining strong. Rosenblatt analyst Mike Genovese said in a note:
Following our recent field work, we now think ANET could be another such company given bigger wins at Microsoft, Oracle and Google than we previously expected. It appears that increased tariffs have actually made White Box switching options from China and rest of Asia less attractive, benefiting Arista.
The second reason is that Rosenblatt’s earlier Sell thesis has now run its course. That view was driven by worries that Arista’s Extensible Operating System (EOS) software would lose relevance within AI factory data centers.
7. United Airline Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ:UAL)
Winton Group’s stake: $11,987,092
Upside Potential: 36.01%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 86
United Airline Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) is a holding company, with its subsidiary United Airlines, Inc. United operates the most extensive route network among North American carriers, with major U.S. hubs in cities like Chicago, Denver, and Los Angeles. United’s domestic hubs are in major business and population centers, driving significant “origin and destination” traffic. The hub-and-spoke system enables frequent service across many destinations and allows efficient expansion to new locations. United is a member of Star Alliance, the world’s largest airline network.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) saw solid Q1 2025 performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment. Q1 revenue increased 5.4% year-over-year to a record $13.2 billion, though demand weakened towards the end of January, particularly during off-peak hours. CEO Scott Kirby attributed the company’s resilience to its success in winning brand-loyal customers, noting that United is now a leader in brand loyalty in six of its seven hubs. Despite economic softness, United expects to earn $7-$9 per share in 2025.
The company is enhancing its customer experience by expanding airport clubs and installing Starlink Wi-Fi across its fleet. Kirby emphasized that even in a recessionary environment, United’s loyal customer base positions it well. The company’s ongoing investments in technology and operational excellence, including the rollout of Starlink, reflect its commitment to improving service and maintaining competitive advantage.
6. Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH)
Winton Group’s stake: $13,014,710
Upside Potential: 38.89%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) is a prominent U.S. homebuilder focused on single-family attached and detached homes, primarily in high-growth markets across 12 states. Operating through three regional segments—West, Central, and East—and a financial services segment, the company offers title, mortgage, and insurance services via subsidiaries like Carefree Title and Meritage Insurance. As of December 31, 2024, it was actively selling homes in 292 communities, with an average sales price of approximately $406,000.
In Q1 2025, Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) reported strong results despite ongoing economic uncertainty. The company sold nearly 3,900 homes and closed 3,416, generating $1.3 billion in home revenues. Over 60% of closings came from homes sold within the same quarter, aided by their strategy of releasing homes within 60 days of completion. This approach helped offset high mortgage rates and cautious buyer sentiment. Despite affordability challenges, buyer demand remains solid, especially in the entry-level market. Meritage continues to focus on maintaining steady sales pace, optimizing margins, and managing land positions carefully in a volatile housing market.
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) ‘s strategy focuses on affordability, certainty, and move-in-ready homes with a 60-day closing, creating a competitive edge amid resale inventory. At the end of the quarter, spec and backlog units totaled ~8,800, with spec homes up 13% year-over-year. Completed specs held steady at 39%. Strong backlog conversion lowered ending backlog to ~2,000 homes. Home closing revenue reached $1.3B, with ASP down due to incentives. Despite market softness, gross margin remained resilient at 22%, supported by cost savings and strategic inventory management.
5. Everus Construction Group, Inc. (NYSE:ECG)
Winton Group’s stake: $9,398,305
Upside Potential: 41.9%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39
Everus Construction Group, Inc. (NYSE:ECG) is a leading provider of specialized infrastructure services across the US. With expertise in electrical, mechanical, transmission, and distribution systems, the company supports a broad range of sectors including utilities, transportation, industrial, commercial, and renewable energy. Everus became a standalone public company in November 2024 following its separation from MDU Resources Group. Headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota, Everus Construction Group, Inc. (NYSE:ECG) employs more than 9,000 skilled professionals committed to delivering safe, reliable, and high-quality construction and engineering solutions nationwide.
Last year, Everus Construction Group, Inc. (NYSE:ECG) focused on geographic expansion through satellite projects, strengthening key customer relationships and expanding its reach. Strong project execution contributed to excellent margins, despite lower revenue. For 2025, the company’s key focus is strategic M&A, with the company prioritizing disciplined investments.
The company expects continued demand in commercial markets like data centers and hospitality, alongside growth in industrial and institutional sectors, particularly in water projects and battery plant manufacturing. Strong demand in transmission, distribution, and substation work aligns with their capabilities. Despite some slowdown in backlog, the company remains confident in their diversified business and ongoing relationships, particularly in utility projects.
4. Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK)
Winton Group’s stake: $8,348,800
Upside Potential: 44.66%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 45
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK), founded in 1985, operates Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air. Alaska Airlines, established in 1932, serves North America and international destinations. Hawaiian Airlines, founded in 1929, operates between Hawaii and various global locations. Horizon Air, acquired in 1986, provides regional flights for Alaska. In 2016, Air Group acquired Virgin America, merging it with Alaska in 2018. In 2024, Alaska acquired Hawaiian Holdings, integrating operations, loyalty programs, and pursuing joint collective bargaining for employees. The company prioritizes safety and sustainable growth.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) reported a Q1 2025 net loss of $166 million, with an adjusted loss of $95 million. Despite this, the company remains confident in its long-term strategy, Alaska Accelerate. Key successes include strong loyalty growth, particularly through its Hawaiian Airlines integration, and a robust performance in premium revenues. The company’s diversified revenue streams, including cargo, are contributing to its resilience. Alaska’s market position is strengthened by a low-cost structure and high loyalty. Despite challenges like macroeconomic factors and fluctuating demand, Alaska maintains its commitment to its $1 billion share buyback program. The company is optimistic about future performance, aiming for $10 earnings per share by 2027. The second quarter outlook reflects slight growth but cautious expectations due to ongoing uncertainty in the demand environment.
3. Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (NYSE:ASO)
Winton Group’s stake: $9,042,450
Upside Potential: 44.65%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 30
Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (NYSE:ASO) is a leading U.S. retailer offering a broad, value-based assortment of sporting goods, apparel, footwear, and outdoor recreation products. Founded in 1938, it operates 298 stores across 19 states, focusing on active families and casual participants. With strong national and private label brand offerings, Academy delivers affordable, localized products tailored to community needs. Its growing omnichannel strategy, including BOPIS and e-commerce, supports expansion in fast-growing markets and enhances customer convenience and loyalty, driving long-term growth opportunities.
Last year, Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (NYSE:ASO) is focused on revitalizing e-commerce through improved site functionality, broader SKU offerings, and faster fulfillment, including same-day delivery. It’s further enhancing its existing stores by introducing new brands like Jordan and expanding partnerships with Nike, Converse, and others. Academy aims to maintain its value leadership, targeting budget-conscious consumers by offering quality products at competitive prices. These strategies are intended to drive long-term growth and strengthen its market position across channels.
Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (NYSE:ASO) plans to hold prices on key traffic-driving items despite tariff pressures by using pricing tools and expanding private labels like Brazos. New brand launches, including a Jacob Wheeler line, which will enhance value. Growth will also come from loyalty efforts—11 million enrolled customers—and improved marketing via a new agency. Tech rollouts, including RFID and handheld POS, aim to boost inventory accuracy and omnichannel conversion.
2. Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK)
Winton Group’s stake: $19,583,156
Upside Potential: 62.6%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 66
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) is a global leader in designing, marketing, and distributing innovative footwear, apparel, and accessories under six proprietary brands: UGG, HOKA, Teva, Sanuk, Koolaburra, and AHNU. Its products serve both casual lifestyle and high-performance markets and are sold through domestic and international retailers, distributors, and direct-to-consumer channels. Each brand emphasizes a unique blend of fashion, functionality, comfort, and quality. UGG and HOKA are standout global performers, while Teva and Sanuk cater to outdoor and lifestyle audiences.
Raymond James upgraded Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) to Strong Buy from Outperform on April 10, citing an attractive entry point after a 48% stock decline since January. The firm expects a Q4 earnings beat and steady FY26 guidance, setting a $150 price target—over 40% upside. While acknowledging slower growth in HOKA and UGG, the firm sees both brands with long-term potential. The firm envisions HOKA growing into a brand generating several billion dollars in revenue, while UGG is expected to expand its global presence and attract consumers throughout all seasons.
The firm highlighted tariff risks, predicting a 28% cost increase for Deckers, but believes its premium positioning will help it manage macro challenges. It expects Q4 EPS of $0.59, 2 cents above estimates, and views recent margin pressure as temporary. According to Raymond James, Deckers’ valuation of 13x its FY27 EPS estimate remains below historical averages, supporting the target price.
1. QuidelOrtho Corporation (NASDAQ:QDEL)
Winton Group’s stake: $7,571,763
Upside Potential: 74.07%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39
QuidelOrtho Corporation (NASDAQ:QDEL) is a leader in diagnostic solutions, specializes in immunoassay, molecular testing, clinical chemistry, and transfusion medicine. The company operates in over 130 countries, with manufacturing facilities in the US and UK, offering a wide range of diagnostic products across various markets. The company generates revenue through core business units like Labs, Transfusion Medicine, Point of Care, and Molecular Diagnostics, as well as non-core revenue from contract manufacturing.
QuidelOrtho Corporation (NASDAQ:QDEL) is investing heavily in new product development, including next-gen diagnostic solutions and rapid testing platforms. The company is advancing product development with new offerings like the Savanna® molecular platform, and VITROS® syphilis assay. Additionally, they’ve launched the Results Manager™ system to enhance lab efficiency, highlighting their commitment to expanding diagnostic capabilities across multiple therapeutic areas.
The company has made significant strides in operational efficiency, including staff reductions and procurement cost savings. These actions could lead to sustained margin expansion, improving profitability in the coming years. The company announced a 9% workforce reduction, resulting in 12-13% cost savings, and increased traction in procurement efforts, which are expected to deliver an additional $30-50 million in savings. The company maintains a target of achieving a 25-30% EBITDA range in the next two to three years. The current ratio stands at 21%.
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