In this article, we discuss Billionaire Chris Rokos’ 10 Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential.
One of the traits that define investors who become billionaires is the ability to make money regardless of market conditions. Chris Rokos is one example. For instance, in March 2025, the hedge fund gained 3.4% amid heightened volatility. At the same time, fellow big-name asset managers like Point72, Citadel, and Millennium struggled to handle the volatility.
Christopher Charles Rokos is a British hedge fund manager. He co-founded Brevan Howard in 2002 after nearly 10 years with Goldman Sachs, where he traded interest rate products. In 2015, he established Rokos Capital Management. The asset manager has approximately $20 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) as of 2025. Rokos is the fund’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO).
The billionaire hedge fund manager made the most of Trump’s election in November last year. According to a Bloomberg report, Rokos netted nearly $1 billion in profits in a single day following Trump’s victory. This, according to the report, is a “standout trading performance” since Rokos Capital started operating in 2015.
READ ALSO: Billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater’s 10 Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential and Billionaire Mario Gabelli’s 10 Large-Cap Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential.
And the winning didn’t stop there. Since that election victory, Trump has fueled rallies and routs in almost equal measure. But, interestingly, Rokos keeps turning up profits regardless of market conditions. Thanks to the Trump-fueled rally in November 2024, Rokos Capital Management ended the year with 31% in returns.
In early April 2025, Trump’s tariffs triggered a large sell-off, and many hedge funds lost money. But not Rokos. The asset manager advanced 4.5% in the first two weeks of the month. This gain helped the hedge fund’s returns for the year to reach 8% as of mid-April 2025.
But whether Rokos Capital Management will keep winning this year is something that remains to be seen, especially in light of the conditions in the market. On Monday, May 5, 2025, the S&P 500 snapped out of a nine-day rally—the longest winning streak in 20 years. The broader market index fell 0.64%, while the Nasdaq shed 0.74% and the Dow lost 0.24%.
Market observers quoted by CNN put the decline on tariffs. For instance, Argent Capital Management’s Jed Ellerbroek said that the “market is intensely focused on where the tariff rates end up, and it’s bouncing around day to day as those assessments change.”
Veteran technical strategist Tom DeMark told Bloomberg that a bear market is a likely scenario shortly. “A top is imminent. Too much technical damage has been done. Stocks are vulnerable right now and can easily get hit pretty badly if anything quickly changes on the global trade outlook.”
However, it won’t come as a surprise that Rokos Capital manages gains out of the bleak market (if the current predictions hold). They have done it before. As such, it appears wise to get an idea of the hedge fund’s stock picks, especially those with a huge upside potential.
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Our Methodology
We combed through Rokos Capital Management’s SEC Q4 2024 13F filings. We focused on the fund’s most valuable equities holdings (excluding ETFs and options) and then ranked the stocks based on analyst price targets as of May 7, 2025. We picked stocks with an upside potential of at least 30% and then picked the top 10. We have also mentioned the broader hedge fund sentiment for these stocks, as of Q4 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Billionaire Chris Rokos’ 10 Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential
10. Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $10,292,677
Upside Potential as of May 7: 31.72%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 50
Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO) is a technology company focusing on semiconductor manufacturing solutions. It provides tools and software to help chipmakers improve production efficiency and quality.
In Q4 2024, Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO) reported record quarterly revenue of $264 million and full-year revenue of $987 million. The company’s AI packaging revenue surged an impressive 180% compared to the previous year, while advanced nodes revenue improved for the fourth consecutive quarter. CEO Michael Plisinski highlighted that the company’s growth was “carried forward by investments in AI, power semiconductors, and new gate all around transistor technology.”
The future looks great for the company. According to a report, the global semiconductor metrology equipment market is projected to reach $13.3 billion by 2031. Similarly, the wafer inspection system market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% from 2025 to 2034. It will expand from $3.5 billion to $6.4 billion.
Despite these positive fundamentals, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts downgraded Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO) from Overweight to Neutral on May 5, 2025. The analysts cut their price target to $135 from $250. Analyst Matthew Prisco cited concerns about increasing competition and potential risks to the company’s second-half financial projections.
9. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $291,360,000
Upside Potential as of May 7: 44.65%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 223
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a technology company that designs graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI) software. Its products power immersive gaming experiences with GeForce GPUs and the company provides advanced computing solutions for AI applications through its data center business.
NVIDIA Corporation’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in the AI chip market continues despite recent market volatility. For instance, Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) main AI chip manufacturing partner, reported a 43% jump in February sales. This indicates strong demand for NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) products. The company is expanding its ecosystem through additional partnerships. Foxconn recently rolled out its FoxBrain AI platform with assistance from NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) local supercomputing team.
On May 2, 2025, the company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, expressed concerns to US lawmakers about China’s progress in AI development. He urged the Trump administration to reconsider regulations for exporting AI technology. Huang told reporters, “We need to accelerate the diffusion of American AI technology around the world,” highlighting the intensifying competition with companies like Huawei, which is developing its own AI chips. Simultaneously, the US government is considering easing restrictions on NVIDIA chip sales to the United Arab Emirates, which could open new markets for the company.
On May 5, 2025, Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock. However, he recently trimmed his price target to $170 from $195, citing short-term regulatory uncertainty and export restrictions.
8. TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $17,514,000
Upside Potential as of May 7: 44.77%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 32
TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC) is a clean energy company based in Canada. It generates and sells electricity from renewable and conventional sources. The company owns and operates energy generation assets across Canada, the United States, and Western Australia.
TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC) reported mixed Q1 2025 results on May 7, 2025.The company achieved a 94.9% operational availability in the quarter, compared to 92.3% in the same period last year. However, adjusted EBITDA fell to 270 million CAD ($196 million) from 342 million CAD ($248 million) in Q1 2024. The same is true for free cash flow, which fell to 139 million CAD ($101 million) from 221 million CAD ($160 million). Despite the underwhelming figures, CEO John Kousinioris expressed confidence in the company’s 2025 outlook. He noted that their “hedging strategy and active asset optimization continued to generate realized prices well above spot prices.”
During the quarter, TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC) made a strategic investment in Nova Clean Energy, LLC, which includes a $75 million term loan and a $100 million revolving facility. The transaction gave the company exclusive rights to purchase Nova’s late-stage development projects in the western US. The partnership grants access to a development portfolio of over 4 GW of renewable energy projects. TransAlta (NYSE:TAC) also moved into the commercialization phase of its Alberta data center project.
On April 10, 2025, Raymond James initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating and a 12.00 CAD ($8.70) price target. The research firm explained that TransAlta (NYSE:TAC) is “redirecting its focus from renewable energy projects to thermal opportunities” and it’s skeptical about the “likelihood of large technology companies moving into the area given the current macroeconomic climate.”
7. Banco Macro S.A. (NYSE:BMA)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $10,890,793
Upside Potential as of May 7: 45.93%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18
Banco Macro S.A. (NYSE:BMA) is one of Argentina’s largest private banks. Through its extensive network of 515 branches and 9,004 employees, the bank serves 6.12 million retail customers and over 201,233 corporate clients across 23 of Argentina’s 24 provinces.
Banco Macro S.A.’s (NYSE:BMA) Q4 2024 earnings report was impressive. Net income totaled 102.2 billion pesos ($85.44 million) in the quarter, a 4% increase from the previous quarter. For the full year, the bank achieved a remarkable 327% year-over-year profit increase, with an efficiency ratio of 27.6%. The bank’s total financing increased 18% quarter-over-quarter to 5.8 trillion pesos ($6.5 billion) and grew 45% year-over-year. Both peso and USD financing increased by 14% and 29%, respectively, throughout the fiscal year 2024.
Banco Macro S.A. (NYSE:BMA) has a healthy balance sheet and capital position. The bank reported an excess capital of 2.8 trillion pesos ($3.1 billion), a 32.4% Capital Adequacy Ratio under Basel III standards, and a 31.6% Tier 1 Ratio. Its liquid assets remained at a healthy level, reaching 79% of total deposits in Q4 2024. Additionally, the bank’s non-performing to total financing ratio was just 1.28%, with a coverage ratio of 158.8%. This is evidence of excellent asset quality and risk management practices. Analysts hold a Moderate Buy opinion on the stock, and their 1-year median price target points to a 45.93% upside from current levels, as of May 7.
6. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $1,434,201
Upside Potential as of May 7: 54.74%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 65
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) is the largest publicly traded solar modules manufacturer in the US. The company designs and manufactures photovoltaic (PV) solar panels and develops utility-scale solar power projects. Some of its products include thin-film solar modules, battery systems, and large solar farms.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) reported Q1 2025 earnings in late April 2025; the results are solid. Gross margin was 41% (up from 37% in the prior quarter), and energy production reached 4.0 gigawatts. But despite these highlights, the company cut its full-year guidance. Earnings forecast was reduced to between $12.50 and $17.50 per share (down from $17 to $20), and revenue expectations were cut to $4.5-$5.5 billion (from $5.3-$5.8 billion).
CEO Mark Widmar indicated that while the company had anticipated some trade policy changes, the scale and depth of Trump’s tariffs were more disruptive than expected. This situation created a “significant economic headwind” for First Solar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:FSLR) manufacturing facilities in India, Malaysia, and Vietnam. The company faces uncertainty regarding whether the tariffs will remain at 10% or increase after the president’s 90-day pause. This complicates the company’s ability to quantify precise tariff rates for module shipments.
On April 30, 2025, Jefferies downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Hold” and reduced its price target to $127 from $202. The research firm cited concerns over the challenging near-term environment and margin compression.
5. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $43,538,807
Upside Potential as of May 7: 55.02%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 94
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is a semiconductor company that provides memory and storage solutions. The company designs and manufactures DRAM, NAND, and NOR flash memory for computing and networking sectors. It operates through Micron and Crucial brands.
Micron Technology, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MU) Q2 2025 earnings exceeded guidance, with revenue hitting $8.05 billion compared to $5.82 billion in the same period last year. The company’s data center revenue tripled from a year ago, with HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) revenue crossing the $1 billion milestone in the quarter. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra provided an optimistic outlook for Q3 2025, projecting record quarterly revenue of $8.8 billion (±$200 million). He also expects strong DRAM and NAND demand growth in both data center and consumer markets.
This positive outlook aligns with broader industry trends. According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) estimates, global semiconductor sales reached $167.7 billion for Q1 2025. The sales figure is 18.8% higher than Q1 2024. SIA further stated that the industry is experiencing particularly strong growth in the Americas region. The report concludes that there is a sustained high demand for semiconductor products. In other words, the business environment is favorable for companies like Micron (NASDAQ:MU) to continue growing.
Unsurprisingly, Citi reiterated a Buy rating and a $110 price target on Micron (NASDAQ:MU). The investment bank cited an analysis by TrendForce, which reported that PC DRAM prices are expected to rise 3%-8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2. These projections exceed prior forecasts of flat growth due to higher demand and low inventory.
4. MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $6,011,724
Upside Potential as of May 7: 57.81%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 70
MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) is a database technology company. It offers products and services like MongoDB Atlas (cloud-based database service), MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (self-managed database solution for businesses), Atlas Search & Vector Search (tools for advanced search and AI-powered applications), and Data Processing & Analytics (solutions for real-time data streaming and analysis).
In Q4 2025, MongoDB’s (NASDAQ:MDB) total revenue reached $2.01 billion, 19% higher than the previous fiscal year. MongoDB Atlas grew 24% year-over-year, accounting for 71% of total Q4 revenue. The company’s net income in the quarter reached $15.8 million, or $0.20 per share. This is a massive improvement from a net loss of $55.5 million in the year-ago period. Non-GAAP income from operations was $299.3 million for the full fiscal year.
Be that as it may, MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) faces growing competitive pressures and challenges in maintaining its historically high growth rates. For fiscal year 2026, the company issued guidance for revenue between $2.24 billion and $2.28 billion. This is a deceleration to 11-13% growth compared to the 19% growth achieved in fiscal 2025. CEO Dev Ittycheria acknowledged this slowdown, stating, “In fiscal year 2026 we expect to see stable consumption growth in Atlas, our main growth driver.”
On April 25, 2025, Scotiabank analyst Patrick Colville reduced his price target from $240 to $160 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. He cited conversations with executive IT decision-makers that suggest a decline in MongoDB, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MDB) share of new database workloads.
3. Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $4,953,000
Upside Potential as of May 7: 58.72%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 64
Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) is a search and data analytics company that markets itself as “The Search AI Company.” The company offers a suite of solutions, including Elasticsearch (a search engine for applications), Kibana (a visualization tool), and Elastic Security, among others.
The past month has been busy for Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC). On April 29, the company announced Automatic Migration. This is a new feature that simplifies the transition from incumbent SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) solutions to Elastic Security. It automatically maps existing detection rules to equivalent Elastic-built rules without requiring manual rebuilding. This innovation reduces the cost, complexity, and risk associated with migrating from legacy security systems.
Just days earlier, Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) had unveiled the general availability of Elastic Cloud Serverless on Google Cloud Marketplace. This allows developers to quickly scale the company’s solutions without managing infrastructure. This builds on their industry-first Search AI Lake architecture.
These product innovations position Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced security and search capabilities. The company’s focus on performance optimization is evident in its announcement that Elasticsearch runs up to 40% faster on Google Axion processors. This performance gain enables users to index data more efficiently and improve search performance.
On April 16, 2025, Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh lowered the firm’s price target on Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) to $120 from $140 while maintaining an Overweight rating. The analyst said in a note that the adjustment is part of a broader risk/reward reassessment across software companies in light of tariff risk uncertainty.
2. Astera Labs, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALAB)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $33,887,115
Upside Potential as of May 7: 66.24%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 51
Astera Labs, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALAB) is another technology company in Chris Rokos’ portfolio. The company designs and manufactures various semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for AI and cloud infrastructure. Key products include PCIe chips, fabric switches, smart retimers, and cable modules.
On May 6, 2025, Astera Labs, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALAB) reported record quarterly earnings for Q1 2025. Revenue was $159.4 million, up 13% sequentially and 144% year-over-year. The GAAP gross margin reached 74.9%, and the non-GAAP operating margin hit 33.7%. According to CEO Jitendra Mohan, the strong performance from the quarter came from “strong demand for PCIe scale-up and Ethernet scale-out connectivity solutions in custom ASIC platforms.” Based on this momentum, the management has provided optimistic guidance for Q2 2025, projecting revenue between $170 million and $175 million. Astera Labs, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALAB) is ramping up production of its PCIe 6 connectivity portfolio to fast-track deployments of modern AI platforms at scale.
Thad Omura, Chief Business Officer, emphasized that their “PCIe 6 solutions have successfully completed qualification with leading AI and cloud server customers.” As such, they are “ramping up to volume production in parallel with their next generation AI platform rollouts.”
Despite the solid financial performance and growth prospects, Barrington analyst Tom O’Malley revised his price target for Astera Labs, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALAB) downward from $135 to $70. However, he maintained an Outperform rating. The analyst cited concerns over China-related risks and consumer uncertainties impacting the company’s outlook and the implications of tariffs and potential trade tensions.
1. Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL)
Rokos Capital Management Stake Value: $50,436,698
Upside Potential as of May 7: 89.66%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 105
Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) is a data infrastructure semiconductor company. It designs, develops, and markets integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networking, 5G carrier infrastructure, automotive, etc. The target customers include cloud providers, telecommunications and networking companies, and manufacturers integrating smart technology into vehicles.
Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) shares fell more than 6% in extended trading on May 6, 2025, after the chipmaker cut the high end of its revenue forecast and postponed its investor day event. The company said the decision was made due to an “uncertain” economic environment. Revenue in the first quarter didn’t reach the high end of its previous forecast range, with net revenue coming in at about $1.88 billion, plus or minus 2%. This falls short of the company’s March guidance, which suggested sales might be 5% above that mark.
On the operational front, Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) agreed to sell its Automotive Ethernet business to Infineon Technologies AG for $2.5 billion in cash. The business, which is expected to generate revenue of $225-250 million in fiscal 2026, includes Marvell’s Brightlane Automotive Ethernet portfolio and related assets. This strategic divestiture allows Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) to focus on its core competencies while delivering a robust return to shareholders.
On April 17, 2025, Stifel analysts revised their price target for Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) to $80 from $115, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. Stifel believes that Marvell’s (NASDAQ:MRVL) AI-related revenues will soon reach saturation, even though demand from cloud service providers is growing.
While we acknowledge the potential of Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MRVL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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