BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Down More Than 23% Since Q4 2025 Earnings, Here’s What You Need to Know

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) is one of the Best Stocks Under $10 to Buy and Hold Forever. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) has declined more than 23% since its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings were released on March 2. During the quarter, the company reported 37.71% year-over-year decline in revenue to $27.3 million and missed estimates by $6.01 million. The EPS of negative $0.01 topped the consensus by $0.05.

​Management noted that the revenue decline was mainly due to a lower Army program volume. In addition, gross margins for the year came in at 20.4%, down from 37.4% in 2024, mainly due to nonrecurring high-margin license deliveries and an overhead true-up that only benefited 2024. The company expects 2026 revenue in the range of $135 million to $165 million.

​Following the release, H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target on the stock from $8 to $6, while maintaining a Buy rating. The firm noted that the fiscal 2026 guidance range fell short of the firm’s anticipation of $200 million. Wainwright highlighted that the year-over-year revenue decline was impacted by the government shutdown during the quarter and noted that contributions from Ask Sage can lift gross margins for the company. Moreover, the firm also finds BigBear to benefit from the current administration’s policies related to national security.

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) provides AI-powered decision intelligence solutions. It offers national security, supply chain management, and digital identity and biometrics solutions.

While we acknowledge the risk and potential of BBAI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than BBAI and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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