Banco de Chile (BCH): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Banco de Chile on Ian’s Insider Corner’s Substack by Ian Bezek. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BCH. Banco de Chile’s share was trading at $31.11 as of October 14th. BCH’s trailing and forward P/E were 11.48 and 11.64 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Chilean equities are primed for a major rally ahead of the November 16th presidential election, as conservative candidate José Antonio Kast is overwhelmingly favored to win. Despite polls showing a close race, they reflect only first-round intentions, masking the conservatives’ collective strength. Once votes consolidate after the first round, Kast is expected to emerge as the dominant candidate, with right-wing contenders commanding close to 50% of voter support compared to the left’s 27%.

Foreign investors have misread this structure, leading to undervaluation in Chilean assets. A Kast presidency, with its pro-business and tough-on-crime agenda, would mark a decisive shift from Gabriel Boric’s unpopular socialist government and could restore investor confidence. Kast’s image has also moderated, helped by the rise of far-right rival Johannes Kaiser, positioning him as the pragmatic, electable conservative choice. Meanwhile, compulsory voting, newly implemented this year, should bolster conservative turnout further.

The anticipated victory sets the stage for a Chilean economic resurgence supported by high commodity prices, especially copper, gold, and silver and favorable geopolitical positioning. With global trade tensions escalating, Chile’s neutrality allows it to maintain strong ties with both Western and Asian partners, enhancing its export competitiveness.

A pro-market administration combined with elevated resource prices could drive GDP growth above 5% annually, catalyzing a rerating of Chilean equities and currency. Banco de Chile is highlighted as the most efficient vehicle to express this trade, benefiting from improving macro conditions and rising investor sentiment. Once markets internalize Kast’s likely win, Chilean financial assets could see outsized returns.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Bancolombia S.A. (CIB) by Unemployed Value Degen in January 2025, which highlighted the bank’s market leadership in Colombia, international diversification, and growth potential through its digital neobank, Nequi. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 15.64% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as CIB’s strategic positioning remains strong. Ian Bezek shares a similar thesis but emphasizes Chilean political catalysts affecting Banco de Chile.

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Disclosure: None.