Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Francisco. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Francisco Riquel: Yes. Thank you for taking my questions and congratulations for the results. First I want to ask first about the deposit beta. In Mexico, 25% in the fourth quarters local peers are closer to 35%, 40%. I wonder if you think that you will be able to maintain the gap and what beta do you expect in ’23. In Spain, you can comment on what terminal deposit beta you pay for ’23, ’24, if you will believe that BBVA will be above or below the sector average. Any color you can give on the deposit mix would be great. And second on capital, if you can update on the regulatory headwinds left for ’23 please. Thank you.

Onur Genc: Very good. On the Mexican situation, you already mentioned that Francisco, but as you can see on the page, the policy rate at the moment, as you know, is 10.5%. Our blended cost of deposits is 2%, 2.07%, as you see on the page for the country for the fourth quarter average. And how is that possible? That’s possible because again, a big part of the deposits that you can see is demand deposits, and these are all transactional deposits. I did mention to you in the previous calls that we do have a really wonderful franchise in Mexico. 40% of the salaries in the country go through BBVA in terms of amount 40%. That helps us in transactionality. We have a wonderful acquiring franchise for the SMEs and so on. We are a cash flow oriented business.

We are a technology digital oriented business, and we are really in the transactional business of our clients. In that sense, the demand deposits for us is the key number here. And as a result of that, we have 100 basis points difference, positive difference in cost of funding versus our competitors already. So given the transaction nature of those deposits, the deposit details that you see here, obviously there will be some further maybe increases and so on, but the deposit betas would not change much. Regarding Spain, the assumption that we have at the moment is obviously there are three, three parameters here. What percent of demand deposits, again, a big part of our deposit base will move to time. So the percentage of, or the amount that would be subject to interest rates, number one amount, number two, what would you pay to those — to that piece?

And number three, the timing. When are you going to start doing that? Given the really high liquidity in the system and you might have seen it, but even if you take into account the full payment of TLTRO, there will still be a lot of liquidity in the system. In that context, our estimated beta is a combined beta of what percent will go to time deposits and how much you will pay to it is around 20% to 25%, the combined beta. And we are expecting that the pressure is not there at the moment and it’ll be later in the year if there is any. And we are going to be, as we are going to be watching competition very closely, but we don’t see that competitive pressure yet. To cut the long story short, the dynamics are quite positive because of the very high liquidity in the system, even after you take out the full TLTRO from the balance sheets of the banks and the combined beta estimate that you see in our guidance is 20% to 25%.

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