Ball Corporation (NYSE:BALL) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Bryan Burgmeier: Understood. Thank you. One quick follow-up here is, Dan, during the quarter, I think you talked about kind of retail points and the supply chain being displaced by the customer mix developments in U.S. beer. Do you have a sense of where we are kind of in that process and maybe when Ball start to see the benefits of being exposed to some of the other brewers that are doing very well right now?

Dan Fisher: There’s been very minimal movements in terms of retail displacement. I know those questions are being posed. There’s a significant reset that happens kind of tail in the Q3 heading in the Q4 across most of the major retailers. So you will see this net impact fully manifest. Probably not until the first half of 2024 will all of the shakeout happen. So I’m not looking at anything appreciably changing in Q3. But the customers that have the opportunity to take a broader position in the retail, they will be gearing up their supply chains. They will be entering into these new retail positions over the course of the third quarter. And then you will start to see Q4, first half of 2024, where things start to settle out.

Bryan Burgmeier: Understood. Thanks a lot. I’ll turn it over.

Dan Fisher: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Adam Samuelson: Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Dan Fisher: Morning Adam.

Adam Samuelson: Good morning. Maybe just a starting point on, as we think about the guidance and think there was a new kind of qualifier this quarter around kind of the potential to be at the low end of the 10% to 15% long-term kind of range. And I guess help me. Is it just a volume question more in the back half of the uncertainty with some easier comps and the magnitude of bounce that drives kind of the introduction of that qualifier? Or is it further disruption in the U.S. beer? Or just help me think about range of outcomes that drive potential versus actually achieving?

Dan Fisher: I wouldn’t characterize it as further deterioration of mass beer. It’s going to be persistent through the third quarter. And so, yes, but from a volume standpoint, the third quarter from a mass beer standpoint, what we anticipated at the beginning year versus what we’re experiencing, it’s softer. And nothing’s going to change here probably in the next 90 days, meaningfully, to inflect. The good news is everything that we set out to accomplish in terms of our operational performance, the PPI pass-through, the tailwinds of some inflationary benefits, the SG&A actions, the fixed cost savings, all of that is allowing us to have a line of sites at that low end. We wouldn’t be there without the — we wouldn’t be able to characterize our belief in that low end without the performance of the operations right now.

So, it is mass beer, and in every one of the regions, we believe there’s an inflection in the fourth quarter in volume. We’ve talked about the CSD market. We’ve talked about, I think, what’s going to happen in mass beer, and then also a peak season in South America with an improved economic environment in Brazil. All of those things have to come through, but they were already baked in. What wasn’t baked in is mass beer in North America.

Adam Samuelson: Got it. Now, that’s very helpful. And as you look at — start to think about 2024 in that context, and start working with customers, obviously, some of the market share shifts could present incremental opportunities. And I guess as you think about the mass beer channel in 2024 volumetrically, if that rebounds, do you think you gain disproportionately from that? Or is it some of that potentially grew back to the one of the captive can makers that are known by one of your big customers?