Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

When we look at the business, we look at the indicators that we have, bid board activity was at record highs again. So we saw a good strong bid activity there. While construction backlog may have declined a bit, it’s still high, all right? And the number one thing that I heard from general contractors at Autodesk University was still can’t hire enough. So they’re still going to be working through that backlog at a relatively slow pace. Also, what’s really interesting is we’re seeing ourselves in more deals down market now more competitive deals, and frankly, we’re winning some of them. And I think that’s interesting. I think that probably results in slowing down deals for some of our competitors in various markets. But we’re actually seeing a lot more interesting deal activity.

Tyler Radke: That’s helpful. And a follow-up for Debbie. I appreciate you getting a lot of questions on FY 2025. And I’m not going to ask you to dissect it further. But if I think about just trying to bridge the 9%, which seems like it does have some tailwinds from the transactional changes relative to that 10% to 15% framework that you gave, it doesn’t seem like macro has worsened relative to a few quarters ago or a year ago when you gave that out based on your commentary. Just help us understand that bridge. Is it mostly conservatism or maybe currency or some of the other headwinds are larger than we’re thinking about? Thank you.

Debbie Clifford: Yes. Sure. So remember, you got to be thinking about the non-recurrence of the EBA upfront and true-up revenue that we’ve been talking about all year. FX, as I just mentioned, could be a factor right now, we’re assuming that it is a headwind to revenue growth. And then finally, we have been talking about the macro drag on new subscriber growth all year. And remember, given the ratable revenue recognition model that we have, what we’re seeing with new subscriber growth this year has more of an implication for revenue growth next year than for revenue today. So those three factors are the biggest factors driving our estimate of 9% or more as we head into next year.

Tyler Radke: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jason Celino: Great. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe one on the EBAs. So in Q3, did you see any of these renewals maybe happen earlier than expected? Overall, it sounds like you’re still seeing some timing true-ups, but also some pretty big expansions. Is the overarching takeaway that the cohort is expanding maybe better than what you had anticipated?

Debbie Clifford: Thanks, Jason. So the EBA cohort has been performing really well all year, which has been great. Remember, this is a cohort that last renewed in late 2020. That was at the height of the pandemic. And back then, they made more conservative assumptions about usage because of the uncertain environment at that time. Fast forward to today, these customers are continuing to manage through a high demand for projects. That’s led to higher overall usage on their contracts. And as we’ve mentioned before, we do monitor the usage. So we’ve had insight into the potential EBA upside as the year has progressed. We’ve continued to update our outlook, which is each quarter of the renewals and the true-ups. And as we look at Q4. We’ve got our eye on the remainder of this large EBA cohort and the signs continue to be strong. We factored all of this into our latest estimates, and that’s what drove the top line upgrade that we communicated today.

Jason Celino: Okay. Great. And then I asked this question last quarter, but it sounds like a few of your competitors might be starting to see some of the water infrastructure funding start to flow plan intended this time. Are you seeing this, too? And then is this the strength that you’re already seeing? Or could this be an additional opportunity for maybe next year?

Andrew Anagnost: Yes. Jason, one of the things that you may have heard is that some of that money from the infrastructure bill that was targeting modernization of departments of transportation was really, it’s about $34 million that’s significant in that not only it starts these DOTs on their process of modernization and evaluating the modernization, but it also was directed at several DOTs that we have relationships with and where we’ve actually displaced competitors and engaged with the infrastructure. So that’s pretty exciting stuff. That shows money starting to flow to the projects. As I’ve always said, it takes time to release this money from the flood gates of Washington into the places floodgate of Washington, that’s kind of an oxymoronic comment.

But it takes time to get there. And that — these — this money is going to kind of again, build up momentum for the rest of the projects and help us move forward. So I would say it continues to be an emerging opportunity. Projects are getting started, but there’s more hope in the future for even more projects.

Jason Celino: Okay, Great. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Funk of Bank of America.

Michael Funk: Yes. Thanks for the questions. Two, if I could. So first for you, Andrew. A number of changes with partner relationships from last year, you mentioned the new transaction model I think earlier you also changed the commission structure to more back end versus front-end loaded. So curious what kind of reaction you’re hearing from your partners and how you expect these changes to impact that relationship?