Atlassian Corporation (TEAM): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Atlassian Corporation on Darius Dark Investing’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TEAM. Atlassian Corporation’s share was trading at $168.71 as of October 21st. TEAM’s forward P/E was 34.01 according to Yahoo Finance.

Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is a foundational player in enterprise collaboration software, with its products Jira and Confluence embedded in the workflows of over 300,000 companies, including high-profile clients like NASA, Netflix, and Spotify. Its tools are integral to project tracking, knowledge management, and cross-team collaboration, creating a deeply entrenched ecosystem. Despite this centrality, the stock has declined over 30% year-to-date, driven by margin pressures, cautious forward guidance, and investor concerns over intensifying competition from Microsoft, GitLab, and newer work management platforms like Monday.com and Asana.

Founded in 2002 in Sydney with just a $10,000 credit card debt, Atlassian pioneered a product-led growth strategy, bypassing traditional sales-heavy models. This approach, combined with transparent pricing and self-service adoption, allowed rapid traction among developers and created a high-switching-cost ecosystem through cross-selling products and fostering third-party integrations via the Atlassian Marketplace. However, this moat is now being tested as competitors leverage distribution, integration, and user experience advantages to challenge Atlassian across multiple fronts.

In response, Atlassian is executing a bold strategic pivot centered on artificial intelligence, video collaboration, and enterprise expansion. Its proprietary Teamwork Graph powers Rovo, an AI agent capable of contextual task automation and knowledge synthesis, while the $975 million Loom acquisition integrates asynchronous video into its suite. Enterprise-focused bundles further increase adoption, creating a richer data pool for AI and reinforcing stickiness. Financially, Atlassian reported $1.36 billion in quarterly revenue, with cloud revenue up 25% year-over-year and $638 million in free cash flow, despite GAAP losses due to strategic investments.

The investment thesis rests on the AI-driven transformation unlocking a new moat and accelerating growth. While competition and execution risk are real, TEAM’s cash generation, entrenched ecosystem, and ambitious strategic pivot present a compelling long-term opportunity, making the current share price an attractive entry point for patient investors.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) by Deep Value Returns in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong free cash flow, disciplined expense management, and long-term growth ambitions. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 19% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as TEAM’s scalable business model provides resilience. Darius Dark Investing shares a similar view but emphasizes the AI and enterprise expansion strategy.

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Disclosure: None.