AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS): A Bull Case Theory

Published on August 7, 2025 at 2:47 pm by Ricardo Pillai in News, Stock Analysis

We came across a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. on Victorious Investing’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASTS. AST SpaceMobile, Inc.’s share was trading at $52.57 as of August 5^th.

A satellite array in Earth’s orbit, showing the vast scope of the company’s space-based solutions.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is pioneering space-based cellular broadband by deploying large low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites designed to connect directly with standard, unmodified mobile phones, eliminating the need for terrestrial towers and filling coverage gaps globally. Its BlueWalker prototype, launched in 2022, successfully demonstrated direct-to-device connectivity, achieving 4G download speeds and later enabling 5G voice calls. The company has since launched five Block-1 satellites and plans to deploy 60 larger Block-2 satellites by 2026, each capable of servicing 1 million users, supported by a $300M manufacturing expansion to scale production to six satellites per month.

AST is currently pre-revenue but well-capitalized, with $873.8M in cash following a $458M raise, minimal debt, and $0.5B in government funding. It maintains partnerships with over 50 carriers, including Vodafone, Verizon, and Google, which collectively serve 3 billion subscribers, positioning AST to tap into the $1.1T global mobile broadband market where 42% of the population lacks coverage. The company also holds U.S. defense contracts worth over $60M, expanding its commercial and government footprint.

Competition from SpaceX’s Starlink, Apple’s Globalstar partnership, and Amazon’s Project Kuiper remains a key risk, alongside technical scalability, regulatory hurdles, and ongoing cash burn. However, AST’s technology advantage in supporting low-band frequencies gives it an edge in carrier integration. While valuation remains speculative, forecasts suggest billions in potential revenue by 2030 if adoption scales as planned. For risk-tolerant investors, AST offers significant upside as it transitions from testing to commercialization, with 2025-2026 deployment as a pivotal catalyst.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, highlighting its progress toward commercialization and strong funding runway despite losses. The stock has appreciated about 100% since then as deployment momentum built. The thesis still stands given upcoming launches. Victorious Investing shares an identical view but emphasizes long-term upside and technology scalability.