ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

And if the utilization comes to a certain point, then they will start this. They will order and they will require shipments. And that’s exactly why we’ve also said on the call that we believe that we’re going to see momentum building up in the course of this year with a much stronger second-half, as Peter also just had a much stronger second-half than the first-half. So in terms of trends in China, strong first quarter for sure, but not a record quarter, but a strong quarter. We expect China to continue to be strong this year. And obviously also to the — also you have to see that in relation to the rest of the world that we believe is going to recover. We’ve also said on previous calls and I just want to reiterate that if you look at the demand for China, the demand in China continues to be strong.

And that is related, as we said before, to the fact that the demand for mature technology continues to be strong. And I just point that what we said at the Capital Markets Day in 2022. Capital Markets Day in 2022, we said we believe every single year between ‘22 and 2030, we believe 380k wafer starts and capacity needs to be added to mature. And if we look at what has happened last year, what has been added in terms of that both in China and in the rest of the world, it’s actually below that number. So yes, China is strong. And, of course, it’s not just mature, but mature is a very significant part of what China is added — is adding. Yes, China is strong, but China is strong, because they’re adding capacity that we believe the world needs.

And yes, as a result of this, China’s share and global market share will over the years become larger than it is today. Their self-sufficiency will increase in comparison to today. But we believe that what China is adding today in terms of mature capacity is rational and is in line with the — with our expectation of what capacity and mature needs to be added in order to get to what the world needs in the second-half of the decade.

Tammy Qiu: Okay, thank you, Roger. And I have a follow-up on the EUV and 2 nanometer, 3 nanometer area, please. So you are expecting some massive order from foundry and logic customers. Can you share is that for 3 nanometer or 2 nanometer? And what is the level of EUV, kind of, layer count between those two? Because I do understand that potentially you have some usage, so that may impair some 2 nanometer incremental demand because some 3 nanometer can be migrated or reused for 2.

Christophe Fouquet: Yeah, so this is Christophe here. So maybe on your first question, so I think we mentioned a few times now that customer were still logic customer. Foundry customers were still digesting, so some of the capacity they had put in place. We were then referring to 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer. When we look for the 2 nanometer capacity still have to come and I think, as you most probably are aware of, we expect the ramp for that technology to start sometime next year. So I think this will be the next most probably wave of EUV order and this is also back to the comment Roger made in answer to the first question. So we are going to now focus when it comes to EUV and logic foundry, mostly to 2 nanometer of order intake, which, as Roger said, should come in the next few months.

And on the number of layers, so no change there. I think we mentioned in the past that the layer — the EUV layer for 2 nanometer is very similar to what we had on 3 nanometer. 2 nanometer is mostly a device transition. As you know, most customers, logic — foundry customers will transition to get all around, which is — I would say, quite a complex move. And as a result, the focus of the change is on that. So all the expectations we have in terms of EUV layer on 2 nanometers are not different from the one we have shared with you for quite a few months already now.

Tammy Qiu: Okay. Thank you, Christophe. Peter, happy retirement, and thanks for being with us over the past 10-years.

Peter Wennink: You’re welcome. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We will now take the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Joe Quatrochi: Yes, thanks for taking the questions. I was curious, as we think about the order book and we think about filling out 2025, the company has been very specific about pre-building low NA tools over the course of this year and into next year. Has that changed the way that your customers are thinking about their order cadence?

Peter Wennink: Well, I mean, that would be a bit opportunistic on their side. And I like to think of the relationship that we have with our customers as a — as much more one-off partnership than one-off transactional behavior. So, I don’t think that necessarily has an impact. Of course, we said in previous calls, in order to get as many — create as many degrees of flexibility that we have for next year that we will do some pre-building. But, of course, we do that in very close interaction with customers, understanding what they need. And I think that’s a big distinction that I think you need to draw. I mean, on the one hand, we’re having very intense interactions with customers to understand what they need. And then you have PO.

And actually the PO process, as you probably will appreciate given the amounts that we’re talking about these days, are pretty bureaucratic and formal processes where there is a lot of governance necessary in order to get there. That gets you to the lumpiness. But in the meantime, we have a pretty good understanding based on our interactions with customers, what they really need. So that’s I think — it’s the interaction with the customers, it’s the comfort that we get based on those conversations that ultimately drives our plans for the year, that ultimately drives our plans for pre-building much more so than whether or not an order is going to be received or not.