ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on ASML Holding N.V. on Arya’s Substack by  Arya. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASML. ASML Holding N.V.’s share was trading at $1,454.59  as of January 27th. ASML’s trailing and forward P/E were 50.55 and 45.66  respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) remains the centerpiece of advanced semiconductor manufacturing, commanding a near-monopoly in EUV lithography and benefiting from structural tailwinds driven by AI, logic/foundry demand, and emerging High-NA adoption. The company trades at ~$1,265/share as of Jan 14, 2026, with a forward P/E of ~40×, reflecting market expectations of sustained multi-year growth and pricing power.

ASML’s backlog and service revenue (~25% of sales) provide stability through semiconductor cycles, insulating it relative to peers like Applied Materials (AMAT, 26× forward P/E) and Lam Research (LRCX, 36×), which face greater cyclical exposure and competitive pressures. KLA (KLAC) offers a comparable structural growth story in process control but with slightly lower EPS growth expectations (~11% 5-year CAGR vs. ~25% for ASML).

Key drivers over the next 6–12 months include Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings, which will clarify the trajectory of 2026 sales and margins; major customer capex updates from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel; potential buyback announcements and investor updates; High-NA EUV milestones; and broader semiconductor cycle indicators like fab utilization and memory pricing.

Upside catalysts involve faster-than-expected adoption of High-NA, secular AI-driven wafer fab expansions, and margin expansion beyond current forecasts. Downside risks include China export restrictions, execution delays in High-NA or customer node ramps, supply chain constraints, and a cyclical downturn in wafer fab equipment budgets.

Technically, ASML is in a strong uptrend above key moving averages, though near-term overbought signals (14-day RSI ~69) suggest a modest pullback could be healthy. With its structural moat, diversified customer base, and strategic importance in every AI-era chip, ASML’s premium valuation is justified, making it a standout holding in semiconductor equipment.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) by Monopolistic Investor in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s near-monopoly in EUV lithography, strong margins, and strategic importance in semiconductor manufacturing. ASML’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 94.85% since our coverage. Arya shares a similar perspective but emphasizes High-NA adoption, service revenue stability, and upcoming catalysts like customer capex and margin expansion.

ASML Holding N.V. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 82 hedge fund portfolios held ASML at the end of the third quarter which was 78 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ASML as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ASML and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.