LONDON — I have recently been evaluating the investment cases for a multitude of FTSE 100 companies.
Although Britain’s foremost share index has risen 7.2% so far in 2013, I believe many London-listed stocks still have much further to run, while conversely others look overdue for a correction. So how do the following five stocks weigh up?
A confluence of lower mining grades, higher refining charges, rising power costs, plus rising general inflation all look set to hurt earnings over the long term.
Meanwhile, the Chilean miner expects total copper production, as well as gold and molybdenum ‘by-product’ output, to all head lower during 2013, further pressuring the bottom line.
City analysts expect an 8% drop in earnings per share in 2012 — results for which are due on Tuesday, 12 March — with meagre growth of 2% in 2013 set to be followed by a 4% decline for 2014. The possibility of fresh macroeconomic jitters and the subsequent effect on commodity prices could put even these modest numbers to the sword.
Despite this poor earnings outlook, Antofagasta still trades on a relatively lofty earnings P/E ratio. A reading of 13.5 for last year is forecast to fall to 13.1 in 2013 before rising to 13.6 next year, further undermining the investment case in my opinion.
BG Group plc (LON:BG)
Despite recent share-price pressure, I believe BG Group looks a decent bet to rise again as its excellent portfolio of assets step up production in the near term.
Project delays in Brazil and the U.K., fears surrounding the company’s gas reserves in Egypt, as well as a scaling back of shale gas operations in the U.S., have caused BG Group to cut production expectations until 2015 in recent months.
Still, under the guidance of industry expert Chris Finlayson, the firm is well placed to reap the potential of its world-class assets.
Earnings per share are expected to leap 23% higher during 2014 and a further 20% in 2015, according to broker Canaccord Genuity, as output at Brazil’s Sapinhoá field and the Queensland Curtis LNG project in Australia contribute materially this year and next.
Allied with a consequent P/E ratio drop — to an expected 14.2 for 2013, and 11.5 and 9.6 for 2014 and 2015 respectively — I think BG Group offers potentially explosive returns in coming years.
Croda International Plc (LON:CRDA)
I believe chemicals giant Croda International‘s stellar pricing power and formidable barriers to entry will keep it on an upward keel regardless of fresh weakness in the global financial environment.
The company is a top-level producer of high-value chemical additives to the personal care market, particularly in the manufacturing of green and niche products. Croda is also increasing its presence across the globe to mitigate weakness in the traditional stronghold of Europe.
As well, a particularly healthy balance sheet — helped in no small part by an aggressive commitment to margin improvement — should help to fund ongoing geographical expansion and provide fresh capital for R&D to help the firm stay ahead of the pack.
City brokers estimate earnings per share to trickle 3% higher in 2012, before gathering pace thereafter when growth of 9% and 10% is projected in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Last year’s results are due on Tuesday, 26 February.
Croda does not come cheap, with a P/E ratio of 18.4 and 16.7 forecast for this year and next. But I think this premium is justified given its steady growth record and quality of its businesses.
GKN plc (LON:GKN)
I expect the shares of vehicle component builder GKN to tread higher in coming years as total global car demand, coupled with rising civil aeroplane orders, keeps the firm’s share price on a steady upward trend.
Total worldwide vehicle demand is set to continue climbing in the near term, according to industry experts, particularly in the premium car sector in which GKN is a market leader.
Furthermore, the firm is already a major supplier to aeroplane manufacturers The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) and Airbus, and whose purchase of Volvo Aero Engines late last year should bolster its position as a top-tier parts partner.
City estimates suggest a 9% earnings per share increase for 2012 — results for which are scheduled for Tuesday, 26 February — to be followed by a 10% and 11% jump in 2013 and 2014 respectively.
I believe these steady earnings growth projections leave GKN in bargain-basement territory. A figure of 10.4 for last year is set to fall to 9.5 and 8.5 for 2013 and 2014, according to City brokers.
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation (LON:ENRC)
I reckon that rocketing production from Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation should drive its shares higher in the near future.
ENRC announced earlier this month that its total annual production of saleable ferroalloys, electricity and coal had hit their highest levels since the group’s 2007 flotation. And this is widely expected to continue — indeed, Credit Suisse expects copper output alone to rise 57% to 55,000 tonnes in 2013 and advance an additional 127% next year to 125,000 tonnes.
Earnings per share are forecast to have taken a pasting during 2012. Results released on Wednesday, 20 March are projected to show a 68% fall, according to City analysts. But this is expected to snap back this year and next, up 10% and 43% respectively, as output levels ramp up.
Meanwhile, ENRC’s anticipated P/E ratio of 12.8 for 2012 is forecast to fall to an inexpensive 11.7 and 8.2 in 2013 and 2014, which I view as attractive given the firm’s promising production upside.
The company is tipped to embark on a small equity raising to solve the long-standing problems with its balance sheet, while I feel further M&A speculation could provide the share price with additional lift.
Zone in on other sterling stocks
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The article Are Any of These 5 FTSE 100 Shares a Buy? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Royston Wild.
Fool contributor Royston Wild has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Antofagasta and Croda International.
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