Arcosa, Inc. (NYSE:ACA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Antonio Carrillo: We haven’t heard anything, so we are – we don’t – we haven’t heard any feedback from the customer or from anything else. So, we keep going.

Jean Ramirez: Okay. thank you. And just piggybacking off the previous question so any – the additional inputs from treasury that changing the expectations around the credits for the towers? So, there’s – looking at your guidance for 2024, so there’s no – you’re not expecting any changes into your guidance for how you’re utilizing your tax credits then?

Gail Peck: So, I’ll take that, Alex. So, how we recognize and account for our tax credits, very similar to 2023, we are rolling those in as a reduction of cost of sales. So, no change in regard to that. And generally, as you think about the tax credit, we really manage the business holistically for total EBITDA and total profitability. But as we ramp in wind tower and we expect revenues to grow in wind tower, we would expect the tax credit to grow along with that. Probably – there are things, as I’ve talked about before, that impact the size of the credit. Certainly, the wattage of the turbine. Is it a three-section or four-section tower? But those things aside, I think generally we can expect to see the tax credit grow in line with revenue growth, all else being equal. So, not that impactful to overall margin because it’s going to grow in line with revenue, but certainly it’s going to add to our EBITDA growth in 2024.

Jean Ramirez: Perfect. Thank you. And just one more from me. You talked about price momentum going into 2024 for aggregates. Are you guys considering any midyear price increases?

Antonio Carrillo: Normally we do a price increase in the middle of the year. So, yes, we expect to continue to raise prices wherever we can.

Gail Peck: And I would just say, Alex, at this juncture, given it’s so early in the year, we don’t roll those into our guidance, but certainly taking a very price-disciplined approach.

Jean Ramirez: Perfect. Thank you. I’ll jump back in.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Garik Shmois: Oh, hi. Thanks. Congrats on the quarter. I was hoping first if you could go over the variance within your revenue guidance. What would have to happen to reach the low end and the high end of the 6% to 18% range that you’ve offered?

Gail Peck: I’ll take that, Garik. Let’s see if I can pull some of it apart for you. There’s a lot of moving parts as you know. I think as we think about our cyclical businesses, and maybe I’ll start there, we’ve got good backlog visibility. So, when you think about our barge business, we have $255 million of backlog at the end of 2023. We said that is all for 2024 delivery. We’ve substantially filled our production plans and we’re taking order inquiries for 2025. So, you look at the ramp, you look at where we finished 2023, we have our marine components revenue in addition to our backlog. So, you could be approaching close to 20% revenue growth in the barge business. With a backlog that is solidified, we feel pretty comfortable about that.

Likewise in wind, we have good visibility for 2024. So, I don’t see any risk to the wind backlog. There’s potentially upside if we take additional orders. I think the focus for us really is on orders for 2025 and beyond. I’ll let Antonio comment there when I wrap up, but not a lot of risk associated with the downside on barge or wind, and potentially some upside, but I’d say somewhat limited on 2024, with more growth in 2025 for those businesses. Utility, same thing. We have a good backlog. We have a shadow backlog that we don’t include in reportable backlog. High single-digit revenue growth in utility structures feels comfortable. And then on construction, we feel very confident in the outlook, the demand outlook, as Antonio said. A rough start with weather.

We’re used to that. We’ve got some inorganic contributions that we will see in 2024. I think the way maybe to think about top line in construction is we had close to 7% top line revenue growth last year. Maybe 100 basis points or so of that was inorganic, and we could expect maybe a slightly larger inorganic piece in 2024 to get you in that high single-digit area of revenue growth for construction next year. That is the one business where we don’t have a backlog, but we feel pretty confident in the demand drivers that we see in the tailwinds from the infrastructure rolling in more strongly in 2024.

Antonio Carrillo: The only thing I would add to Gail’s comment is, the other thing that, we know how to do it. We do it constantly, but ramping up facilities, it’s always a risk. There’s always things that can happen and we need to hire a lot of people and we need to train people and we need to produce products and it’s always a risk. It’s going to be a heavy lift for the year, but the good news, I think is the demand side. I mean, the demand side is there and it’s all up to us to perform well for the year because we have everything to be successful though.