Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Stefan Murry: Michael, I just want to touch on your last question there. I’ll try to answer it directly. Are we seeing a trend of more orders kind of month by month? And the answer is, yes. As I mentioned earlier, that one program, for example, for Microsoft, is somewhat delayed, we do expect it to pick up towards the end of this quarter, so that in June month would be busier than May and that would certainly begin in April. So we are seeing that trend with that product but overall, we expect to see that trend somewhat throughout the quarter. Although, again, I would say for the most part of the data center business, outside some of these new programs, and especially the 800 gig products later in the year, it’s — you know, it’s relatively consistent business at this point.

Michael Genovese: Okay, great. I may come back later or take my questions for offline. Thank you.

Operator: The next question will come from Tim Savageaux with Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Tim, your line maybe muted.

Timothy Savageaux: Yes, sorry about that. I’m here. Can you hear me?

Stefan Murry: Yes, we can hear you.

Timothy Savageaux: All right. Great. I’d say with the new OpEx forecast, it seems like maybe something reasonably over $300 million, that’s what you would need to get you there and so that’s a pretty significant ramp in the second half, almost 3X over the first, although we’ve seen that recently, at couple of different places; most recently at coherent [ph]. So, I guess as you look at that ramp — and the 800 gig opportunities in particular, I am hoping you might be able to size those for us in a fashion maybe similar or analogous to how you’ve been talking about the Microsoft 400 gig opportunity? That’s one question. And you’ve talked about new data center customers or some old data center customers coming back. Should we assume this discussion around 800 gig, 1.60 [ph] also applies to Microsoft or is it more focused on the new players?

Stefan Murry: No. I mean, we specifically — maybe I wasn’t totally clear from the prepared remarks but it’s — you know, our existing customers that we have now plus the new customers for those 800 gig and 1.6 terabit products; so Microsoft clearly would be included in the category of existing customers. And as far as the size of the market, what we’re seeing right now is that 800 gig is several times as large as the 400 gig opportunity. So it represents a dramatic expansion and that’s within the same customer. If you add on the new customers that we’re referring to, the market size there gets commensurately larger.

Timothy Savageaux: Great. So as you look at that data center ramp into the second half, I mean, would you imagine between your current 400 gig — would you imagine that to be — I don’t know, half 800 gig or how are you looking at it now? And to what extent are you looking at a material Cable TV networking contribution in the second half as part of that ramp?

Stefan Murry: Yes. I think that’s the key point. Really, is the Cable TV has been — you know, kind of — to the extent that there has been a disappointment in Q2 is mainly that Cable TV is ramping slower than we expected, and that’s just — at times we mentioned, some of that’s part for the course. I mean, we are optimistic that the MSOs would move a little faster in the 1.8 [ph] but it’s taken a little longer to get through the qualification, the necessary training and what hadn’t done. But we do expect them to ramp in the second half of the year, and that’ll contribute meaningfully towards the revenue ramp, but it would also help us improve the gross margin which is significantly higher in the Cable TV segment than it was in data center.

Thompson Lin: And I can add. For the 800 gig business, we can see what we are discussing with — at least current 3 to 4 customers, which are including Microsoft and others [ph] — who are worth more than $500 million, $600 million next year for AOI for 800 gig.

Timothy Savageaux: All right. Is that in the aggregate or what kind of time period or maybe we can — Stef, can we put some more brackets around that $500 million, $600 million [ph] or I think I’ve heard you said?

Thompson Lin: I think we are doing quite okay. I think — I can you wish [ph] you get the body in order of by Q3. So, if not, the next year; Q1 to Q4 next year I would say [indiscernible] more than $500 million or even $600 million for AOI based on this time [ph].

Timothy Savageaux: That was going to be my last question actually. In terms of your — the nature of these detailed discussions and — kind of, is that around qualification? Or where do we stand on that front? Or are we talking about putting — guiding me as in crossing the TSM contracts? A little more color there.

Stefan Murry: Well, I am not sure to what extent the contracts really come into play there. What we’re talking about now is planning around deployment scenarios, when they’re going to be products, how much product we are going to need, pricing; that sort of thing. [Indiscernible] from the customers is, how fast can you deliver this amount of products for us, right. It’s about how fast can we be ready to deploy or to manufacture the products that they need to deploy.

Thompson Lin: And they very important key as I say is, AOI has been in best $200 million in the cash for more than 10 year for automation, including a lot of our own equipment for automations. So, I’ve been going to — we are doing a Phase 2 [ph], maybe I will say we would do Phase 2 live — Phase 3 live by end of this year and we will do a Phase 3 we are measuring in Q1, Q2 next year. So we can do manufacturing in Houston with our [indiscernible] or with higher cost than in Taiwan and China. I think [indiscernible] to the customer including the customer we used to bet. Some of they had gone, and then they are coming back. Number two; the key — so you know, the rate is the key component — key terminology [ph]. The 100G, 200G, the Vexcel [ph], the EML; and I think they are to make all in Houston. This also is very — I think a key factor for the customer. I think for sure it is — now, even called the key [indiscernible].

Timothy Savageaux: Great. Thanks very much.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from Dave Kang with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Dave Kang: Thank you. Good afternoon. So regarding that 800 gig, first question is, do you have 200 gig per lane Vexcels [ph] and EML? So what’s the status of that?