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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s iPhone Upgrade Cycle: Will AI Boost Sales?

We recently published a list of 10 AI News and Analyst Ratings You Should Not MissSince Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 2nd on the list, it deserves a deeper look.

While everyone is talking about rate cuts, some analysts are questioning whether it was necessary even to start cutting rates at this time. Latest data released on Tuesday showed retail sales in the US rose while Wall Street analysts were expecting to see a decline. Oksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, said while talking to CNBC that rate cuts are not even warranted as she thinks there are no signs of broader weakening except for the labor market.

Aronov said cutting rates would “loosen” the financial conditions further. The analyst said that about 14 months ago, everyone was looking at the CPI that was clocking in at 3% and expected the metric to fall to 2%. But even after all these months, CPI year over year is at 2.9%. She said that the Fed should move carefully and the 2% inflation target would be “elusive” because fiscal spending will continue to rise.

AI investors are however looking beyond this debate and already positioning to pile into more growth stocks amid the beginning of the rate-cut cycle.

For this article, we picked 10 buzzing AI stocks and discussed the latest news around them.

With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

A wide view of an Apple store, showing the range of products the company offers.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 184

Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley equity research executive director, said while talking to CNBC that he believes we are entering a “seasonal period” of relative underperformance for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Woodring said that the stock underperformance of Apple after the latest iPhone event was a result of a “relatively measured, slow and staggered rollout” of the key feature, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Intelligence.

The analyst said in the first few days of the event, data regarding pre-orders is very “noisy” and lead times data points come in from the supply and demand side.

The analyst said that lead times are important on a per-model basis. He said day-one lead times are a bit lower than past cycles.

Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone event went more or less as expected and all eyes are now on pre-order data and actual numbers on the new iPhone. A survey by US AlphaWise showed about 60% of customers planning to upgrade their iPhone said Apple Intelligence is a key part of the rationale behind the upgrade.

Almost all bull cases around Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) are based on the assumption that millions of people would upgrade their iPhones mainly due to AI. However, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been seeing a long-term decline in mobile carrier upgrade rates, especially postpaid, for several years. This suggests that people are holding onto their devices longer, likely due to economic factors, satisfaction with current technology, or a lack of exciting new features in recent models. This trend isn’t great for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). Can Apple Intelligence break this trend? We’ll find out soon.

However, the assumption that we will see a huge upgrade cycle of iPhone just because of AI is big and comes with a lot of risks. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) trades at a forward PE multiple of around 35x, well above its 5-year average of nearly 27x. Its expected EPS forward long-term growth rate of 10.39% does not justify its valuation, especially with the iPhone upgrade cycle assumption. Adjusting for this growth results in a forward PEG ratio of 3.33, significantly higher than its 5-year average of 2.38.

Baron Technology Fund stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:

“The Fund’s chief relative detractor was Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), even though it was a meaningful contributor to absolute performance, as we added to our Apple position significantly during the period. We bought Apple well, but in 20/20 hindsight we didn’t buy enough. Because Apple has an oversized weight in the Benchmark (its average weight was 15.7% for the period), when Apple’s stock outperforms (it appreciated 23.0%), it has generally been a headwind to relative performance. Our Apple underweight accounted for 33% of our relative underperformance for the period.

This quarter we increased the size of our position in Apple Inc., a leading technology company known for its innovative consumer electronics products like the iPhone, MacBook, iPad, and Apple Watch. Apple is a leader across its categories and geographies, with a growing installed base that now exceeds 2 billion devices globally. The company’s attached services – including the App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+, Apple Music, and Apple Pay – provide a higher margin, recurring revenue stream that both enhances the value proposition for its hardware products and improves the financial profile. Apple now has well over 1 billion subscribers paying for these services, more than double the number it had just 4 years ago. The increasing services mix has led to healthy operating margin improvement, providing more free cash flow for Apple to reinvest in the business and to distribute to shareholders. Throughout its 48-year history, Apple has successfully navigated and capitalized on major technological shifts, from PCs to mobile to cloud computing. We believe the company’s leading brand and device ecosystem position it to do equally well in the AI age, and this was the driver of our decision to re-invest. “Apple Intelligence” – the AI strategy unveiled at Apple’s recent Worldwide Developer Conference – leverages on-device AI and integrations with tools like ChatGPT to enhance user experiences across its ecosystem. The AI suite enables users to create new images, summarize and generate text, and use Siri to perform actions across their mobile applications, all while maintaining user privacy and security. We think Apple Intelligence can drive accelerated product upgrade cycles and higher demand for Apple services. The combination of growth re-acceleration, increasing services contribution, and thoughtful capital allocation should continue driving long-term shareholder value.”

Overall, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 2nd on Insider Monkey’s list titled 10 AI News and Analyst Ratings You Should Not Miss. While we acknowledge the potential of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AAPL stock that is more promising than AI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: Analyst Sees a New $25 Billion “Opportunity” for NVIDIA and Jim Cramer is Recommending These Stocks.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

The $250 Trillion AI Hype is Real. A few years from now, you’ll probably wish you’d bought this stock.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard.

Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences.

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000.

Do the math. According to Musk, this technology could be worth $250 trillion by 2040.

Put another way, that’s roughly equal to:

  • 175 Teslas
  • 107 Amazons
  • 140 Metas
  • 84 Googles
  • 65 Microsofts
  • And 55 Nvidias

And here’s the wild part — this $250 trillion wave isn’t tied to one company, but to an entire ecosystem of AI innovators set to reshape the global economy.

It’s a leap so massive, it could reshape how businesses, governments, and consumers operate worldwide.

Even if that $250 trillion figure sounds ambitious, major firms like PwC and McKinsey still see AI unlocking multi-trillion-dollar potential.

How could anything be worth that much?

The answer lies in a breakthrough so powerful it’s redefining how humanity works, learns, and creates.

And this breakthrough has already set off a frenzy among hedge funds and Wall Street’s top investors.

What most investors don’t realize is that one under-owned company holds the key to this $250 trillion revolution.

In fact, Verge argues this company’s supercheap AI technology should concern rivals.

Before I reveal the details, let’s talk about how some of the richest people on the planet are positioning themselves.

  • Bill Gates sees artificial intelligence as the “biggest technological advance in my lifetime,” more transformative than the internet or personal computer, capable of improving healthcare, education, and addressing climate change.
  • Larry Ellison — through Oracle, is spending billions on Nvidia chips and partnering with Cohere to embed generative AI across Oracle’s cloud and apps.
  • Warren Buffett — not known for tech hype — says this breakthrough could have a ‘hugely beneficial social impact.

When billionaires from Silicon Valley to Wall Street line up behind the same idea — you know it’s worth paying attention to.

Even as we admire what Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft have built, we believe an even greater opportunity lies elsewhere…

But the real story isn’t Nvidia — it’s a much smaller company quietly improving the critical technology that makes this entire revolution possible.

And judging by what I’m hearing from both Silicon Valley insiders and Wall Street veterans…

This prediction might not be bold at all:

A few years from now, you’ll wish you’d owned this stock.

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Wall Street calls this $3 stock a “Melting Ice Cube.” They said the same thing about BTI before it returned 90%.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

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We alerted our subscribers, and BTI returned 90% in just 16 months.

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