APi Group Corporation (APG): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on APi Group Corporation on Speedwell Memos’s Substack by Speedwell Research. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on APG. APi Group Corporation’s share was trading at $39.56 as of November 28th. APG’s trailing and forward P/E were 109.89 and 24.27 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

APi Group’s evolution from a small 1926 plumbing shop into a global safety and specialty services platform reflects nearly a century of expansion, leadership continuity, and strategic reinvention. After decades of diversification into construction-related services and a global footprint, the company entered a new phase when longtime operator Russell Becker became CEO in 2002 and later partnered with Martin Franklin’s SPAC, J2, which acquired APi for $2.9 billion in 2019.

Franklin’s track record of acquiring and operationally improving businesses—from Jarden to Restaurant Brands International and Nomad Foods—set investor expectations that APi could similarly unlock substantial value through disciplined M&A and margin expansion.

At acquisition, APi operated 40+ businesses across essential services including fire protection, HVAC, utilities, and security systems. Although COVID initially pressured revenues, Becker accelerated a strategic shift toward recurring, higher-margin service work, particularly inspections that generate predictable follow-on maintenance revenue. This transition improved customer stickiness, reduced reliance on low-margin contract bidding, and positioned APi to consolidate a fragmented market where smaller operators chase large contracts while APi efficiently captures smaller, recurring jobs.

The company complemented this organic strategy with disciplined acquisitions, typically at mid-single-digit EBITDA multiples, culminating in the transformative 2021 purchase of Chubb for $3.1 billion. Chubb doubled APi’s scale, expanded its international reach, and pushed service revenue above 50%, supporting APi’s long-term 13% EBITDA margin, 60% services mix, and 80% cash conversion targets. With over $7 billion in 2024 revenue, more than 100 acquisitions completed under Becker, and a model built on recurring compliance-driven services, APi appears early in its runway to further margin expansion, consolidation, and long-term value creation.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on APi Group Corporation (APG) by Kairos Research in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s inspection-led recurring model and disciplined safety-focused acquisitions. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 7.03% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out through steady margin expansion. The thesis still stands as APG’s service mix remains resilient. Speedwell Research shares a similar view but emphasizes APG’s long-term evolution.

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Disclosure: None.