Apartment Income REIT Corp. (NYSE:AIRC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Haendel St. Juste: Hey, there. Sorry, I was on mute. Terry, I think you mentioned earlier that you don’t have plans at the current moment to transact, but that you’re certainly in a position to be able to. So I’m curious what you’re seeing out there today in terms of CapEx IRR and maybe where they need to be for you to get more active. And where, potentially could we see you get more active; Coastal, Sunbelt, any particular markets you’d like to highlight? Thanks.

Terry Considine: Hi, Haendel. Thank you very much. I think that — I like very much talking about the opportunities we see today, and you’re pointing to something that is very real, that an opportunity — the benefit to people who have access to capital and can make it worth more is what we have at a time when sellers have few alternatives. For specific details, I’d like to turn it over to Josh because he’s nodding his head and eager to go and tell you what he’s seeing out there. Josh?

Josh Minix: Yes. Thank you, Terry, and thank you. Haendel. We’re very active in the market in terms of talking with potential sellers and evaluating opportunities in our markets. We are seeing a pick-up in likely transaction activity as measured by chatter among sellers and broker listings as a proxy for what we might see in our typical market approaches to transactions. In terms of returns, I think we’re still seeing something of a bit of spread. Most sellers are shooting for a low 5% cap rate and most buyers are shooting for a high 5% to 6%. We certainly would want to be at the very top end of the returns, and we’ll be focused on establishing our cost of capital and then executing transactions where we have the opportunity to both improve our portfolio quality by buying assets with the opportunity to apply to AIR Edge and generate that outsized growth rate and ultimately generate a spread of 200 basis points or more to our cost of capital.

Haendel St. Juste: Got it. Thanks. Keith, I guess maybe one for you. I think you outlined, I think, in the guide, market rate growth for this year effectively flat I think with renewals kind of in that plus 5%. I’m curious if you’re concerned at all about kind of creating a gain-to-lease situation for the portfolio next year and how that might impact your ability to push renewals next year.

Keith Kimmel: So Haendel, just for clarification, we have a 1% market growth between now and peak season that’s implied in the guidance. So juts we do see — we have some optimism that we will start seeing that and it could be better or worse than that. But at the end of the day, we’re seeing it already in our January numbers. I don’t have a particular concern about a gain-to-lease condition. I know that — to be clear about that, I always get a little bit off but around those terminologies, because there are points in time, and so if we rent ten apartments today, that’ll change up and down loss-to-lease or gain-to-lease, and really the — where I’d point your attention to is the 2.4% earn in, and more importantly, the 3.5% blend that we have in our plan that would put us through 2024. If all those things become realities which we anticipate, that will then have earned — those will have earned into ’25 and beyond.

Haendel St. Juste: Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. And then lastly, I’m not sure if you outlined it, expectations for turnover this year, how that’s reflected in the guide, and I think you mentioned the bad debt improvement. I forget what the number is, but maybe talk about how that plays into your outlook for the expenses as well. Thanks.

Paul Beldin: Haendel. This is Paul. I’ll start with bad debt. In bad debt, we’ve actually had a very good track record coming out of the pandemic. If I go back to 2021, I think our bad debt as a percent of revenues was 1.6%. In 2022 it improved to 1%, and then in 2023, it improved to 60 basis points. So we do expect continued improvement in 2024, I don’t think we can bank on another 40 bps improvement, but as Keith mentioned in his remarks, we expect about a 10 basis point improvement.

Keith Kimmel: Haendel, I’ll just add a couple of pieces. First, I’ll add a couple of things of insight on the bad debt. And then the second piece, I’ll circle back to your question about retention. I think one of the things that is being a unique characteristic in our bad debt is just sort of our process in some of the emphasis we put around our resident selection process and those folks that we rent to that are not short-term renters, but more importantly, people that stay with us over long periods of time. This is going to dovetail right into your question about retention. But through that process of the resident selection and then secondarily is that we collect our rent centrally. And so I don’t know if that’s something we’ve talked about before, but here in Denver we have a centralized rent collection team, and for a person that over multiple decades has done this work, typically you had – if you had 100 buildings, you might have 100 community managers collecting rent, and you’re trying to manage all of them and coach them up and figure out who’s doing what, and what we have here is about 10 individuals that they’re just experts, professionals at doing this.