Aon plc (NYSE:AON) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jack Matten: Hi, good morning. This is Jack on for Mike. A question on organic growth. In your footnotes, it says that organic growth benefited by 1% from a held-for-sale business and, which segment did that impact and will that have a similar impact until the business is sold?

Christa Davies: So, thanks so much for the question, Jack. We do continue to manage the portfolio actively. These are businesses that we are divesting. And so, we think about this is just a better representation of our revenue, and business going forward. It is in commercial risk and we communicated the 1% impact in Q4, and for the full-year.

Jack Matten: Got it. Thank you. And then second question, you call-out again this quarter decline in global M&A activity, as being a source of organic growth deceleration from prior periods. Would you be able to offer any color on what percentage of Aon revenues touched M&A spend, is it a big enough driver, it impacts continue negatively impacting growth given that M&A volumes are still falling by double-digit levels?

Greg Case: So Michael, let me step back, it’s been a continuation of what we’ve talked about throughout the overall year. In terms of sort of where we are. And we would observe by the way, we help serve, we think about Q4, 2023 versus Q4, 2022 state on four and four. So it’s sort of same year-over-year, even against this headwind. And we haven’t disclosed sort of the detail on sort of the impact, but it’s substantial. We’ve got an amazing group of colleagues, who serve this marketplace and as Eric had mentioned before on prior calls. We have doubled down and this capability. We fully anticipate this is going to come back in absolute full force. The amount of dry powder out there as you know well is extensive. We remind you it shows up in our organic, when the deal is complete.

And we see lots of – we see lots of things in the pipeline as it sort of things are coming to pass. And we fully expect over the course of 2024 to see a return. But this is meaningful for us and we’ve been able to work at very, very strongly and maintain growth across-the-board even at the face of the segment. But Eric, what else would you add to that.

Eric Andersen: Greg, I think you described it perfectly, just maybe one little bit of color. This week, for example, we held a conference where we had 400 members of the private-equity community, the corporate M&A, Corp Dev teams, the insurance markets, the reps and warranties, tax indemnity, and we essentially were going through the marketplace. Just from a growth standpoint, but also from a product innovation standpoint, recognizing that as the deals return and they will. We want to make sure we’re well situated with the clients with the markets, making sure the products are fit-for-purpose, and are evolving to meet the needs, not just here in the US, but in Europe and other places. Where, when it returns we have made that commitment, we want to hold the team so that, we’re ready and front and center when the deals start to happen.

Jack Matten: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Jimmy Bhullar: Hi, good morning. So first, just following-up on the whole M&A discussion. It seems like capital markets activity, is beginning to pick-up and the investment banks are seeing that across-the-board. So, wondering if you’re seeing any signs of that in your business as well, or is it more your hope that things will pick-up in 2024, but you haven’t seen any of it?

Greg Case: Jimmy, we’re seeing exactly the same thing you’re seeing and you’re hearing about. You can imagine, this is a market where highly connected to, with clients and with all the banks, and everyone else involved in the process. And I would say there’s high expectations everywhere, you’d only listened to the Investment Bank our quarterly calls, to sort of understand that. And so, we certainly see lots of potential. And as Eric described, the amount of capital on the sidelines ready to return is high and we’re incredibly well-positioned to do that. But I would say, as I mentioned before, it shows up in organic for us as the deals were completed. And so, as you see that move, you can expect it’s going to be fully reflected in our performance.

Jimmy Bhullar: Okay. And then on commercial brokerage, the organic growth of 4%, I think you mentioned double-digit growth in Asia-Pacific, which is obviously good, but it also suggests that the U.S. is very weak and maybe close to flat. Which seems a little odd given GDP growth, pricing and also just strength that, other brokers have reported. So what’s really going on in the U.S. that’s, pressuring the growth to being flat, despite some of the tailwinds in the economy overall?

Greg Case: Yes. I would start overall, your overall assertion continue where you’re getting to, but really doesn’t reflect what’s going on in reality. Obviously the business is a very, very different sizes. So, one doesn’t really offset the other in any way, shape or form. We would come back to the overall commercial risk story, is exactly what we described before, which is, listen, we are exactly where we were in Q4 of last year with an emerging headwind and became a substantial headwind. We overcame that and a lot of this is not just commercial risk, but the connection of commercial risk reinsurance, and risk capital. And we closed the year, we’d observed some others in the market seem to be retreating. We’re not retreating at all, 12% versus 12% of last year and we’re going into ’24, with a lot of momentum.