Aon plc (AON): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Aon plc on Valueinvestorsclub.com by timecapsule. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AON. Aon plc’s share was trading at $351.17 as of December 1st. AON’s trailing and forward P/E were 28.09 and 18.48 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

AON plc (NYSE: AON) represents a compelling long-term investment due to its defensive, high-quality business model and underappreciated AI-driven margin opportunities. As a leading global insurance broker with an $81B market cap, AON operates in a rational oligopoly across commercial risk, reinsurance, health benefits, and wealth/retirement consulting, generating ~80% recurring revenue with ~95% gross retention.

The business is capital-light, highly sticky, and benefits from strong client relationships, scale advantages, and a complex, mission-critical service offering. Management alignment is notable, with CEO Greg Case holding ~$560M in stock and CFO Edmund Reese focused on disciplined capital allocation, reducing fundamental downside risk.

AON’s margin expansion potential is substantial. Through AON Business Services and AI adoption, the company is shifting ~25% of its workforce to lower-cost regions and leveraging technology to improve efficiency. These initiatives could drive $500M–$1.4B in cost savings, representing 300–800 bps of margin upside and up to 30% incremental EBIT, while also enhancing revenue and customer retention.

Coupled with steady topline growth linked to GDP, share gains from smaller brokers, and low churn, AON can deliver mid-single-digit organic growth through cycles. Fee-based revenue also insulates the company in a softening insurance market, and near-term concerns, such as Q2 performance and prior underinvestment, have been addressed.

With potential EPS of $22–24 by 2027, the stock offers 30–50% upside at 22–23x multiple, alongside limited downside of ~10–15% even under conservative assumptions. Key catalysts include earnings revisions, AI-driven margin expansion, resilience in a soft insurance market, and disciplined capital allocation. Risks—such as dilutive M&A, key-man dependency, or protracted soft insurance pricing—are monitorable and bounded, making AON a durable, high-quality compounder with attractive risk/reward.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) by Bulls On Parade in April 2025, which highlighted its consistent compounding, disciplined acquisitions, and resilient insurance brokerage model. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 31.70% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as BRO remains highly profitable with strong client relationships. timecapsule shares a similar perspective but emphasizes AON’s AI-driven margin expansion and global scale.

Aon plc is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 63 hedge fund portfolios held AON at the end of the second quarter which was 68 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of AON as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AON and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.