Antero Midstream Corporation (NYSE:AM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Brendan Krueger: Yes. I think the guidance is really around — I mean, we’re in certainly a volatile gas price environment and ARs got strong with prices as we’ve talked about. But I think the low end is just to provide for to the extent you had any further reduction because commodity prices have come off even further, and AR pulled back completion. That would likely be the low end of the guide. But I think your point is fair. We feel pretty good about the activity given AR strong balance sheet, liquids focus and the capital efficiency gain that ARs had, they pulled back capital over 25% and generating free cash flow despite gas prices being at kind of a 25-year low outside of COVID. So feel pretty good about the outlook today, but the low end reflects potential slightly lower activity.

Brian Reynolds: Fair enough. I’ll leave it there. Enjoy the rest of your morning.

Brendan Krueger: Hey Brian, thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

John Mackay: Hey good morning. Thanks for the time. Maybe just to pick up one on the gas macro there. I’m pretty sure I know what the answer is going to be, but just so we can kind of talk through it. We do need to see production kind of roll over somewhere in the U.S. on the gas side given where we sit right now. Just curious to hear your high-level thoughts on kind of where you think that would hit? What any impact at all you could see on AM? And I know it was kind of answered on the AR call a little bit, but maybe just go through that again for us. Thank you.

Brendan Krueger: Yes. No, good question. I mean, I think, again, if you think about where it should come from on the AR front, given the liquids focus, liquids is driving the economics as we see other basins out there — so let me step back. Liquids is driving the economics and even at AR gas volumes declining 3%. And so to the extent you have similar producers take an approach, I think that AR is you have a significant decline in production on the gas side. And so I think we view producers that have dry gas focused basis challenges, high declines, high capital intensity areas. Those should all come down, which essentially is all the other gas basins, if you don’t have a liquids focus, I think, today. So we’d expect kind of an allocation across gas basins to see activity. You’ve seen some of that come out already with some producers, and we’d expect more of that as we move forward through the earnings season here.

Q – John Mackay: I appreciate that. And like, you guys — I guess, second question, you guys gave a lot of guidance on the forward look. So I’m not trying to pick apart too much, but I guess last year, you guys kind of gave the forward look to 2027. This year, your kind of forward look didn’t roll over a year. Is there anything special about 2027 or 2028? Or is this kind of — you’ve gotten into a pretty steady EBITDA outlook, pretty steady CapEx outlook, you’d generally expect that to hold through past 2027, I guess, is the crux answer. Is that fair?

Brendan Krueger: Yes. That’s well said. I mean there’s no material change to our outlook. And I think you can look at the remaining years and come to an average in terms of free cash flow after dividends, and there’s nothing in particular that would change that as you move into 2028 and beyond. So we’re executing on the plan we put out there. And to the extent something changed over time, we’d certainly update, but I think we’d continue to expect those expectations. And ARs got plenty of inventory. There’s over 20 years of inventory. I think 22 years was the number that they talked about on their call. And so plenty of inventory, like I said, multi-decade inventory at AR. So no impact on inventory. It’s just a matter of there’s no real material change beyond 2027 and so did not really feel the need to go out another year just to extend the years that we’ve already put out there.

John Mackay: Makes sense. 2027 is far enough – already. I appreciate the time. Thank you.

Brendan Krueger: Thanks, John.

Operator: Thank you.[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Zack Van Everen with TPH. Please proceed with your question.

Zack Van Everen: Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Just want to circle back on the production side to help me think through that. I believe AR mentioned 1% declines on total volumes, 3% like you guys had mentioned on gas. So maybe just a refresher on that drilling partnership. Are they just more incentivized to keep volumes flat around your system based on contracts? Or just any kind of clarity there would be helpful.

Brendan Krueger: Yes. So just a reminder, the drilling partnership is in all of the wells that AR drilled during the year. And so with AR declining, AM gathers gross gas, of course, gross well and gas. So AR’s net gas volumes are not really reflective of the gross operated wellhead volumes. So with the gross operated wellhead volumes, which include QL and other non-op interest owners, which is a small component that’s where you get to flat gross wellhead volumes year-over-year, which is what we talked about.

Zack Van Everen: Okay. That makes sense. And then just one on the — I’ll probably mispronounce this, but [indiscernible] lawsuit. I know in 2023, it was kind of going back and forth. Any update there on when that might come through and what you might do with that cash if it does?