Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Lucarelli: Yes. And it’s very confusing with a 13 to 14-week card, you’re right, Vivek. I’ll kind of add some commentary around that, how to think about that. Normally, 2Q from 1Q and a 13-week to 13-week basis up about 5%. And given what have been said, inventory overhang and bookings getting better. It still feels like we should probably grow some, but I don’t think 5% is likely. Why? There’s still an inventory overhang going on. So if you think 13-week to 13-week were about flattish, plus or minus, in 1Q to 2Q, that’s probably the way to think about it. That means if you include the extra week, it’s probably down about 5% plus or minus sequentially. So I hope that helps back a little bit because it is confusing. And with that we go to our next question, please.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Joseph Moore: Great. Thank you. I wonder, I mean now that you’re in a revenue downturn that looks more severe than we saw the last cycle, what are you seeing in terms of pricing? And are people – you obviously raised prices during the upturn. Are people asking you to give that back? And is that a different conversation on kind of a like-for-like basis versus approaching kind of new design win activity?

Vincent Roche: Yes. Thanks, Joe. So look, I think overall, the pricing of our existing portfolio is very, very resilient, very stable. And I think something to note as well is that every new generation of product that we build is capturing more value. And – so if you look at the legacy, it’s very stable. You look at the legacy franchise. We’ve got tremendous stability. We’re capturing more new value per new socket. And I don’t see any particular change. And we, as a company, play at the high end of the performance curve, which enables us to get this innovation premium that is a very, very critical part of our gross margin structure and our revenue growth. And our job is to continue to invest to make sure that we stay on the cutting edge and get well rewarded for that.

We fight very, very intensely at the inception of new designs. But as I said in the prepared remarks, Joe, we’re seeing generally speaking, our pipeline of new product design wins as well as the more established products continue to grow quarter-by-quarter, year-over-year. So I feel confident that the pricing that we have managed to increase over the last couple of years, 2.5 years that they’re about to reflect the increased cost of goods. We’ll hold those prices. So overall, we’re bullish about where we are and what the pricing environment holds in the future.

Joseph Moore: Thank you.

Michael Lucarelli: Thanks, Joe.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Your line is open.

Stacy Rasgon: Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a question on OpEx and gross margins into Q1. So you said OpEx was down slightly even with the extra week. So, if I sort of understand a little bit, it would imply the normalized like 13-week OpEx would be running around, I don’t know, 640 maybe, maybe a little lower. Once we get through into Q2 when the ex-week rolls off, is that the right sort of like steady-state OpEx run rate to think about as we go through the year and some – are there some other drivers? And I guess if those numbers are right, it sort of implies gross margins implied in Q1 maybe a little below 70, maybe 69, is that the right kind of level that you are thinking about as the revenue is going to drop here?

Jim Mollica: Yes, Stacy, it’s Jim. Let me take that. Let me the margin one first, and then I will talk about the OpEx for the quarter. There is many inputs. There is many levers to the gross margin. There is revenue that’s priced, there is mix as factory loading utilization levels. And let me just try to unpack that a bit. Vince mentioned on the pricing side, basically, that’s stable. So, that’s not a drag to gross margins as we move forward. On the revenue side, basically, we are down – the midpoint of our first quarter guide on a 13-week basis is down, approaching 30% from our previous peak. So, basically revenue is a headwind for us there. Mix basically is unfavorable as well. As you heard in my prepared remarks, industrial was down 19% and 20% last quarter on a year-over-year and sequential basis, and that will be down again in first quarter.

So, mix is a headwind for us. When you put all those puts and takes together, we would expect basically gross margin will fall below 70% in the first half of the year at these trough levels. I think if you think about something in the 68% to 69% range, is probably a good range for this trough revenue range. So, that’s kind of the gross margin. On the OpEx side, as I mentioned, our 4Q OpEx basically was down about $60 million on a sequential basis. This was the combination of reducing discretionary spend and of course, a much lower variable comp. Looking into 1Q, we expect that to be down again even with the extra week. And it’s fair to say that probably you can think about 1% to 2% there. This reduction relates to the actions that we structurally took to reduce OpEx as well as a lower typical seasonal spend in 1Q as well.