Americold Realty Trust (COLD): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Americold Realty Trust on Nugget Capital Partner’s Substack’s Substack by Nugget Capital Partners. As of 20ᵗʰ September, Americold Realty Trust’s share was trading at $12.83. COLD’s forward P/E was 27.89 according to Yahoo Finance.

Americold Realty Trust (COLD) is presenting a compelling investment opportunity due to its current historic discount. The company is trading at around 5.8x net debt to EBITDA and at over a 50% discount to analyst consensus NAV of around $28. This significant discount has resulted in an implied cap rate of double digits, which is well above historical private market sales trends in the cold storage space. Despite challenges such as Donald Trump’s tariffs impacting the cold storage industry, Americold’s management team believes the current challenges are transitory.

The cold storage market is growing, driven by increasing demand for frozen food, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce. However, new supply is expected to fall after a wave of incremental pallet additions, while demand saw historic spikes during the Covid era. With Lineage and Americold controlling around 54% of North American market share, it seems unlikely that there will be a surge of new supply without accommodating demand in this high-MOAT industry. Americold has been able to grow FFO, and analyst projections for next year are for 7-10% NOI growth.

The risk-reward seems quite good to take a position in Americold today, given its complete loss in a normalized multiple, historically low share price, still adequate dividend coverage, and a massive NAV gap with a valuation well below private market trends. NCP has made Americold a top position in his portfolio, while adding a smaller position in peer Lineage. With the cold storage market being imperative to everyone’s daily lives, it seems hard to see how it can fade away much further, making Americold a compelling opportunity.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Prologis, Inc. (PLD) by Business Model Mastery in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s scale in global logistics real estate, strategic focus on Last Touch® facilities, high occupancy rates, and a vast land pipeline supporting long-term growth. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by % since our coverage. This is because Prologis’s capital-efficient model and tenant retention strategy continue to reinforce its moat. Americold Realty Trust (COLD) shares a similar investment appeal in real estate but emphasizes a contrarian opportunity based on its significant discount to NAV, strong market share in cold storage, and favorable risk-reward dynamics amid current market challenges.

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Disclosure: None.