American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

And then Aerie, look, it’s a little early to read swim, but we’ve seen some nice momentum starting in February, but coming out of the end of February, some really nice results there. I can’t even talk enough about the apparel side. And what we’re up to is really going after intimates for the future.

Matthew Boss: Great. And then maybe, Mike, as we break down your full year operating margin guidance, could you just help bucket the embedded assumptions if we’re thinking markdown rate versus IMU recapture maybe relative to just potential offsets to consider on the expense front?

Mike Mathias: Sure, Matt. I think we’re definitely assuming freight cost recapture. So we saw it in Q4. We’ll start to see here in Q1. So our — our guide for the year includes the assumption that we know that product costs are improving. Speed and agility in the supply chain is here now. We’re back to chase mode. We’re leaving significant open to buy, so that should allow us to — will allow us to ensure inventory levels are appropriate for the full year. So both freight cost recapture and then not repeating that charge we took in Q2 associated with cleaning up the first half inventory. The offset then would be some expense growth, some level of incentive assumption that we did not incur out in 2022 and then just some typical annual wage costs that we’re looking to offset, some other just annual expense growth categories. That’s what’s embedded in our assumptions.

Matthew Boss: Great. Best of luck.

Mike Mathias: Thanks, Matt.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question is from Paul Lejuez with Citibank. Please proceed with your question.

Paul Lejuez : Hey, thanks guys. I’m curious if you could talk about the performance of Aerie new stores from this most recent year, and compare that to previous years is what you’re seeing in terms of the new store ramp? And then also curious if you could size for us the size of the OFFLINE business within Aerie? And just what are you counting on that business to do in terms of growth for 2023 versus the rest of that Aerie business? Thanks.

Mike Mathias: Yes, Paul, I can start with the Aerie new store productivity. I think we’re actually really pleased with the new stores out of the gate. I think, we described it as they’re achieving pro forma expectations, which ties to our typical guidance or communication around two to three year payback on those investments. And that’s — what we’ve seen out of the gate, I think, really this last the back half of the year, recent quarter. And what we’re continuing to see here in the spring, as we’ve described, and others are to return to stores. So I think that’s actually having a positive impact on the performance of these new stores. Store traffic is healthy in general. As we know, business coming through stores a little more right now than digital. So the digital traffic is under pressure, but stores are really healthy. So it’s contributing to that area performance. And OFFLINE side of the business, Jen, I don’t know if you want to take that piece of the question?

Jen Foyle: Just about — sorry, I might have missed that. I fell off the line for a minute. So OFFLINE, meaning are we encouraged by the early results? Absolutely.

Mike Mathias: No. Just the size — contribution Jen. The size of the business, Jen.

Jen Foyle: Let me just say it feels like Aerie in early days, we’re growing at a very rapid rate. We are learning about the business. We have some different store formats so that we can really learn to leverage. It’s interesting, our new stores, we’re feeling very encouraged by but we still have a portion of the business inside of the Aerie — inside of select Aerie stores, whether there’s an OFFLINE store in the mall or not, we still are learning in the Aerie stores. What that tells me is that as we build out OFFLINE, we’re looking and testing new businesses inside of the Aerie store because the only thing I can say is that every day, I get a letter from a customer asking why can’t Aerie do this category, or why don’t we have more in this intimates business, or why, or why?