Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) Likely to Avoid Breakup, But Antitrust Remedies Could Hit Core Revenue

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is one of the Trending AI Stocks in Focus This Week. According to BMO Capital, the U.S. District Court has already found Google guilty of “illegally maintaining its search monopoly in general search and search text advertising via exclusionary default agreements.”

In lights of this, analysts at the firm have highlighted that Google’s stock may fluctuate as much as 10% in either direction based on the Department of Justice’s upcoming decision.

Judge Amit Mehta’s decision on the appropriate remedies is anticipated very soon “to clear the deck ahead of the new Ad-Tech trial starting shortly.”

BMO Capital believes that the upcoming remedies for the search monopoly case are going to be significant but not “Draconian.”

Google

It also believes that the most probable outcome would be “a comprehensive behavioral consent decree—not a structural breakup—imposing lasting constraints on Google’s distribution practices, data sharing, and competitive behavior, potentially including AI.”’

While Google is likely to avoid being forced to divest Chrome or Android, though any remedies “could directly impact core revenue streams and operating flexibility.”

The larger risk, however, is in the upcoming Ad-Tech antitrust case. This is because it “presents a higher probability of a structural breakup, with a ruling on remedies expected after September 2025.”

The two cases can together push Google toward “a decade of heightened regulatory oversight and fundamentally alter the competitive landscape for search and digital advertising.”

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