Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Lucas Pipes: That is very helpful. I guess with the increased investor interest, maybe you should offer internships for finance professionals or something like that. But I’ll look aside that. Keep up the great work, really, really great job.

Andy Eidson: Thank you, Lucas. Appreciate you.

Operator: Our next question is from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question.

Nathan Martin: I’m going to start on the marketing side as well, keep Dan busy here. We’ve kind of touched on also price moving up here a little bit to start the third quarter CFR China price is up about $30 or so as well, likely driven by increased domestic price there in China. But we have seen, again, the U.S. East Coast net price indices creeping lower. So Dan, it would be great to get your thoughts on maybe the dynamics at play there, especially that widening spread of Aussie versus U.S. indices?

Dan Horn: And I guess I’ll attribute some of that to supply and demand. I think there’s — the demand in Asia is stronger than it is in the Atlantic at the moment. So you’re seeing some of the benefits of that demand on the Aussie pricing. And as you know, we saw quite a bit of coal in Asia using that index. So that’s — we’re pleased to see that. On the U.S. East Coast indices, probably some of that supply, there’s some increased high-vol supply coming into the market here in 2023 some new mines in Northern West Virginia. So there’s some additional supply out there that might be contributing to that spread a little bit. But that’s kind of how I view it.

Nathan Martin: Got it. That’s helpful, Dan. And then I would say related to that somewhat, you guys mentioned you’re now 100% committed for ’23 at the midpoint within the Met segment. So it’d be really helpful maybe to get some insight into how you’re thinking about Alpha’s export mix in between this Alpha index ton and maybe some of the other pricing mechanisms for the back half of the year?

Dan Horn: I think the breakdown that you see in our tables is probably similar to what we expect the rest of the year, Nate. I mean, shipments will come and go. There will be some vessels, some changes. But broadly speaking, the breakdown that we gave you this quarter is probably a good barometer for that going forward.

Nathan Martin: The breakdown between the exports on…

Dan Horn: Yes, we have a pretty detailed table there that breaks out on.

Nathan Martin: Got it. Yes. It’s roughly 30 — 30% or so there, 1/3 to about 40% or so, I think, to other mechanisms with the balance of domestic. Okay. Good. That’s helpful. I appreciate those thoughts. And then maybe shifting to the domestic market, you just mentioned some high-vol production likely coming online here towards the end of the year, but we’ve also had some supply kind of coming offline in the U.S. Some of it operational, I think there’s been some idling as well. So assuming tightness is helpful to you guys, but it would be great to get your thoughts specifically on supply demand here in the U.S.? And then do you think there needs to be any more idlings? Or would you expect any more? Just would be great to get some color.

Dan Horn: There’s a lot to unpack there. I guess what I’ll say is, the domestic market, I really don’t want to touch on that other than to say that the types of coals that the domestic market typically buys are on the higher quality end of the spectrum. And so, some of the supply/demand issues that might apply to the seaboard market don’t necessarily apply to the domestic market. But I think the demand — I think I would say that across the globe, supply/demand is still fairly tight, and it doesn’t take a lot of — it just takes one event to make it move up or down a little bit. And I think all the coals that are coming on to the market will find a home. If they don’t find a home in the domestic market, they’ll find a home in the seaborne market.

Nathan Martin: Got it. I appreciate that. I think that’s all I have left guys. So, I really appreciate the time and best of luck in the second half.

Andy Eidson: Thanks, Nate.

Operator: Our next question is from Jonnathan Navarre with Cowen & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Jonnathan Navarrete: I think markets have been pretty much well covered right now. So only one for me, and that is relating to the dividend. So what would need to occur for — to reinstate the dividend? And let’s say — let’s give you a scenario, let’s say, medical pricing skyrocket, would share repurchases remain the preferred method of capital return? Or would the dividend be considered again in the future?