Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:ARLP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Brian Cantrell : Yes. And Nate, as Joe mentioned during his opening comments, we’re anticipating pricing to firm up in the back half of the year. And as you look at our commitments for 2023, most of our open times are in the back half of this year. So as Joe has just articulated, we feel pretty confident about the price levels that we’re projecting for this year.

Nathan Martin : So Brian, by firm up in the back half of the year? Are you thinking pricing increases kind of as we move throughout the year from the first half and the second half, what you’re saying or am I misunderstanding that.

Brian Cantrell : Yes. Yes.

Nathan Martin : Okay. Perfect. And then, I mean, also just kind of thinking about the cadence throughout the year, any way to think about it from a shipment standpoint, any longwall moves to keep in mind? And I think, Brian, you also said just to confirm that first half expenses likely higher than second half expenses.

Brian Cantrell : On shipping, we obviously have the normal seasonal impacts of miners’ vacation, holidays, et cetera. We do have more longwall moves scheduled for 2023. Last year, we had a total of six. This year, we have a total of eight. I believe we have a longwall move scheduled in the first quarter at both Hamilton and Tunnel Ridge — I’m sorry, two at Tunnel Ridge in the first half of the — in the first quarter of this year. So after that, it will be spread out over the balance of the year. I would believe that our deliveries are going to be fairly consistent in the first and second quarters. And then as we look up the rest of our open position, the back half of the year should remain strong as well.

Joe Craft : Yes. So as Gibson — as the second unit comes on in the second quarter, you’ll see that bump up for the third and fourth quarters. And you see that when you look at the sequential quarter fourth quarter, you can — you know we had the impact at Hamilton of about 0.5 million tons. So as you think about the first couple of quarters, it should be similar to the sequential quarter in the first half — the first half of the year and then the second half slightly higher for that second unit at Gibson.

Nathan Martin : Okay, Joe. So basically, you get that 0.5 million tons back, it sounds like in 1Q versus 4Q with Hamilton seemingly behind the event that occurred. And then first quarter, second quarter flattish and then Gibson second shift comes on, we should see a bump up?

Joe Craft : Yes. There may — you may not get the full amount back into the second quarter due to the number of longwall moves we got in the first quarter, but it’s pretty close.

Nathan Martin : Got it. Really appreciate that color. And then just finally on CapEx guide, and I’ll get back in the queue. A little bit higher than expected, it looks like ’22 CapEx came in a little lower than your updated guidance. Many items that kind of carry forward, incorporated within ’23 full year guidance? And then it looks like growth in maintenance grew about $100 million — excuse me, maintenance grew roughly $100 million year-over-year. Assuming again, that’s the main driver of the year-over-year guidance increase. But could you give a little bit more color maybe what’s included in the growth piece as well.

Brian Cantrell : On the growth piece, as we mentioned last quarter and in our opening remarks, we are moving into new reserve areas at River View and the main portion of the capital expenditures related to that will be incurred in this year and next. Other factors impacting maintenance capital, we’re obviously projecting increased volumes, which by definition, you’ll have higher maintenance capital costs associated with that, the inflationary impacts on our supplies, maintenance, equipment, et cetera, is also reflective. And then Nate as you know, maintenance capital year-over-year can be pretty heavily influenced by just the timing of rebuild schedules, et cetera. And 2023, we have an occurrence of more rebuilds during this particular point in time than we’ve seen recently.

Operator: The next question is coming from David Storms of Stonegate.

Dave Storms: Just wondering if you could give a little more color as to what you’re seeing on transportation expenses as inflation starts to turn a corner and specifically just outside of any seasonal moves?

Joe Craft : On the transportation expenses, we are seeing better performance. Expenses are still elevated as we run into — going into the year. Some of that does tie to pricing in the export market. So there could be some softening of that. Again, there’s not been much activity because of our sold-out position. So we’ll have to wait and see how that goes for the back half of the year. So I’m not sure I understood your second part of your question.

Brian Cantrell : Maybe just reminder as well that for us, transportation expenses are pass-through.

Joe Craft: Except for export.

Brian Cantrell : Except for export, that’s correct. So it really has an influence on decisions we make around where can we achieve the highest netback at our operations? Is that in the domestic market or the export market?