Air Lease Corporation (NYSE:AL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Moshe Orenbuch: Great, thanks. Is there a way to kind of size the benefit that you get from the stronger lease rates as the airlines are renewing or extending leases? Is that — because I think that’s an important part. We’ve always known that your new leases will have escalators to take care of interest rates, but is there a way to size that?

John Plueger: Greg, do you want to talk about that?

Greg Willis: Sure. I mean, we’ve been experiencing a lot of demand on the new aircraft in our portfolio, as well as the extension that we’ve been entering into. And again, as we mentioned before in the past, over 90% of our leases currently are being extended at rates that we’re very comfortable with. In terms of overall metrics, we have a hard time giving you ranges as to where we think lease rates are going, but they definitely have been catching — I mean catching up to what we’ve seen happen in interest rates. I don’t know, John or Steve, do you want to add further color?

John Plueger: Well, we don’t have a formulaic metric, Moshe, as Greg indicates. And I think one of the compounding effects there is that we, for example, assume that we’re going to place aircraft as they come across lease to a variety of different carriers. And much to our pleasure, the current lessees are stepping up to increase those lease rates to extend those leases. Now in some cases, there’s an increase. But in some cases, leases struck in prior periods or prior years have a fixed lease rate for the extension. And so that dynamic is changing. So it’s really hard for us to give sort of a quantitative outlook, because the bottom line is everyone wants these airplanes now, and that’s good. And just know that where we can increase those rates, we are, but some of the extensions are already at fixed rates. So that’s why I say it’s just going to take time. It makes it very hard for us to give you a quantitative handle on that.

Moshe Orenbuch: Got it, okay. Maybe as a follow-up, the comment that you had made about $1 billion to $2 billion of aircraft sales based upon deliveries, I mean, is it just as simple as if you get — if you’re only at the $4 billion, you’ll do the $2 billion? Or I mean, it seems like there could be some prefunding to the extent of your capital base, particularly given the fact that aircraft prices are so strong. So how do you think about those two?

John Plueger: Yes, we have a pretty good pipeline already of aircraft sales going into this year. They take time to close. So to some extent, what you say is true. It will depend on our assessment of how deliveries are looking for the remainder of the year. And given the fact that particularly on aircraft sold that are on lease to Chinese airplanes, those take — aircraft take a long time to transfer. So we will be making more decisions as we get into sort of the middle of the second quarter as to the timing expectations, how much more we want to keep going versus what Airbus and Boeing — with what degree of confidence we have Airbus and Boeing delivering for the rest of the year. So that’s why we’re saying it’s on an ongoing basis, and it’s on a valuation basis.

And there’s just a lot of different factors, including, again, how long does it take to close these sales, and do we really think we’re going to get these airplanes. We just need a little more seasoning to be able to give a little tighter range.