We came across a bullish thesis on Air Lease Corporation on Value Don’t Lie’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bull’s thesis on AL. Air Lease Corporation’s share was trading at $56.40 as of 19th June. AL’s trailing P/E was 9.86 according to Yahoo Finance.
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Air Lease Corporation (AL) offers a compelling investment story grounded in a simple yet scalable business model—buying aircraft from Airbus and Boeing using mostly investment-grade debt and leasing them to airlines globally on long-term contracts. Founded by industry veteran Steven Udvar-Házy, AL has rapidly grown to own 487 aircraft valued at $28.6 billion, with an average fleet age of 4.7 years and 7.2-year lease terms.
Backed by a strong customer base across 70 countries, AL generates 78% of lease revenue from Asia and Europe and has a sizable $17.1 billion aircraft orderbook through 2029, 100% placed through 2026 and 62% placed overall. Industry trends further bolster AL’s prospects: global air travel is steadily rising, and airlines are increasingly adopting “capital-light” models by leasing rather than owning aircraft.
Meanwhile, supply constraints from Airbus and Boeing, combined with the roll-off of low-yield COVID-era leases, set the stage for 150–200 bps of yield improvement. Despite these strengths, AL trades at a steep discount to peer AerCap, with a 0.77x tangible book multiple versus AerCap’s 1.3x, largely due to AerCap’s faster book value growth, better capital returns, and clearer investor communications.
If AL deploys its full orderbook by 2029, total assets could grow to $50 billion, generating $2.7 billion in operating cash flow or $24/share, implying a stock price of $89 at its historical 3.7x P/OCF multiple, offering a 13% IRR without factoring in buybacks or re-rating. Though risks remain, AL’s younger fleet, solid tailwinds, and deep discount to intrinsic value make it a high-potential opportunity.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Air Lease Corporation (AL) by Value Don’t Lie in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s resilient leasing model, large forward orderbook, and attractive valuation gap versus AerCap. The company’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 1.5% since our coverage. This is because the thesis has not yet played out in the market. The thesis still stands as long-term fundamentals remain strong. Value Don’t Lie shares an identical view but emphasizes a sharper narrative focus on industry tailwinds and valuation math.
Air Lease Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 37 hedge fund portfolios held AL at the end of the first quarter, which was 30 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of AL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
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