Agree Realty Corporation (NYSE:ADC) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Joey Agree: I love when I hear the opportunity is going to be back half of the year weighted. I don’t know if — what’s going to happen in the back half of the year, let alone tomorrow. I’ll tell you our current pipeline for Q1, as I mentioned, has larger scale sale leaseback with industry leaders, has one-off transactions. We’re just starting just to build our Q2 pipeline. We’re about a fifth of the way through that. We have nothing for Q3 and Q4, I’ll be honest, not one deal today for Q3 and Q4. I don’t know that this is going to be a soft landing or we’re going to — it’s going to be a meteor hitting earth here in terms of this economy. So again, I think it’s most appropriate for us to be flexible, which we are with our balance sheet. We don’t need $1 of equity, and then be disciplined as we deploy that capital as this year materializes. And I think everyone has different perspective there.

Operator: Our next question comes from Rob Stevenson from Janney.

Rob Stevenson: Joey, can you talk about your future pipeline of development and partner capital projects? How aggressive are you being with new projects today, and you see the current dollar volume of that pipeline growing, stable, shrinking over the course of ’23 as projects go in and come out?

Joey Agree: Yes. Rob, it’s very similar to my last answer in terms of acquisitions. We’re not going to chase yields down, given a potential, I’ll call it, rise in cap rates throughout the course of this year. Obviously, when you enter into any development transaction, or PCS transaction, there’s duration to it. So, some of those transactions take 6 months, some of them take 12, 18 months. And so, you have to be appropriately compensated in terms of the return on costs. Now, we announced a number of projects in the fourth quarter, we have some in our pipeline, obviously, today that are unannounced still. But the most important thing is we’re getting that appropriate premium for that duration of risk. It’s not going to be credit risk, it’s not going to be the residual risk, but it will be the duration risk.

And so, if we’re going to — if we have the ability to buy something with a similar credit profile or from a third-party from our retail partners, and it’s well inside or close to, I should say, where we could develop or enter into a PCS transaction, we’d much prefer to have visibility into that 70-day closing period, or as much visibility as possible.

Rob Stevenson: And then, talking to your core tenants, where’s retailer expansion demand today versus where it’s been over the last few years? And how does that sort of match up with your understanding of merchant developers ability to get capital to start new projects to fund that sort of development?

Joey Agree: It is a great question. It is extremely topical. We are having literally weekly conversations with our retail partners, the biggest retailers in the world. The vast majority of them aren’t afraid of the overall macro environment because they know they would benefit from the trade down effect. Large format C stores, we have two entering Metro Detroit, both Sheetz and Kum & Go we’ve had the rare various levels of discussion with, the dollar stores, obviously, trade down effect, deep discount grocery or discount groceries, all the ones that continue to grow throughout this country, Dollar General, the Dollar General Market format, Dollar General with popshelf, Five Below and now Five Beyond, the auto parts operators.