Agree Realty Corporation (ADC): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Agree Realty Corporation on Compounding Dividends’s Substack by TJ Terwilliger. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ADC. Agree Realty Corporation’s share was trading at $70.58 as of September 25th. ADC’s trailing and forward P/E were 42.01 and 34.97 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in retail properties leased to essential, e-commerce–resistant tenants such as Walmart, Dollar General, CVS, Walgreens, and quick-service restaurants. The company owns over 2,000 free-standing properties across all 48 mainland U.S. states, with long-term net leases that shift maintenance, taxes, and insurance obligations to tenants, providing Agree with a low-risk, stable cash flow model.

Over the past three years, Agree has grown revenue by 20% annually and FFO per share by 7.7%, yet the stock trades slightly below prior highs, creating a potential entry point for investors seeking income and growth. Agree drives expansion through three key platforms: development of new stores for creditworthy tenants, acquisitions of high-quality existing properties, and its Direct Funding Platform, which funds construction of retail projects while securing favorable lease agreements.

This diversified growth approach, combined with a disciplined, conservative management team led by CEO Joey Agree, has transformed the company from a $300 million microcap to a $7.9 billion market cap REIT, while maintaining low leverage and strong tenant relationships.

The company has a consistent dividend track record, paying monthly distributions with a five- and ten-year growth rate around 5.3–5.4%, offering a reliable income stream. Key competitive advantages include high-quality, recession-resistant tenants, geographically diversified property holdings, and net leases that minimize operational risk.

While risks exist—tenant defaults, interest rate fluctuations, retail industry changes, and construction delays—Agree’s conservative financial policies, tenant selection, and data-driven acquisition strategy mitigate these exposures. With steady growth, reliable cash flow, and a resilient portfolio, Agree Realty presents a compelling investment opportunity in retail-focused, necessity-based real estate.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) by David in April 2025, which highlighted its disciplined capital structure, shareholder-friendly dividend policy, robust cash flow, and luxury tenant portfolio. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 23.34% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as SPG maintains strong lease agreements. TJ Terwilliger shares a similar approach but emphasizes Agree Realty’s focus on essential, e-commerce–resistant tenants and stable, low-risk growth.

Agree Realty Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 34 hedge fund portfolios held ADC at the end of the second quarter which was 33 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ADC as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ADC and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.