After Ford Motor Company (F)’s Big Dividend Increase, Is the Stock a Buy?

In late January, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) announced it had doubled its shareholder payout, from a previous nickel per share to its current level of 10 cents a share paid quarterly.  The announcement meant that Ford’s dividend was now at its highest level since before the financial crisis.  Usually, dividend increases are a great way for a company to demonstrate the health of its business.  On the contrary, however, the company’s most recent quarterly results spooked the market, sending its stock down 5%.  Therefore, which signal regarding Ford is the correct one?

The Automotive Rebound

Ford is the largest publicly traded auto maker in the United States, with a $50 billion market capitalization that is slightly higher than its closest competitor General Motors Company (NYSE:GM).  Investors interested in the automotive industry may prefer GM to Ford on the basis of a few valuation metrics.  GM appears to be slightly cheaper, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7 compared with Ford’s forward P/E of 9.  Furthermore, GM and Ford are trading at price-to-book ratios of 1.5 and 2.8, respectively.  Unfortunately for GM investors, the company suspended its dividend upon its reorganization, and has not resumed dividend payments since its return to trading publicly in 2010.

Japanese auto manufacturer Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) has a market value bigger than Ford and GM combined, at roughly $150 billion.  Toyota’s shares navigated the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery better than Ford and GM.  The stock is nearing the levels it was trading at in 2007 and 2008.  In addition, Toyota performed very well over the first six months of 2012.  Net revenues during the period increased 36% versus the prior year.

Ford’s European Problem

There’s no doubt that Ford doubling its dividend payments is a good sign.  At current prices, the stock yields 3%.  However, the market was far less pleased when the company announced its European losses would widen this year.  Previous expectations were for a loss slightly exceeding $1.5 billion, and the company announced those losses would be closer to $2 billion.  Last year’s losses in Ford’s European segment totaled $1.75 billion, so clearly the market was expecting progress, not regress.  As a result, the company’s shares had its worst day in seven months.