AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Peter Juhas: This will generate operating cash flow of $5 billion as we said, we expect in the coming year, and then in addition, there’ll be $2.5 billion of sales. So relative to the size of the balance sheet, and the cash flow generating power of the business these are very manageable CapEx numbers, even if they were to all deliver which I did.

Helane Becker: Right, right. Got it. Okay. Thanks very much. Have a great day.

Peter Juhas: Thank you.

Operator: We will take our next question, from Moshe Orenbuch from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Moshe Orenbuch: Great. Pete or Gus actually, I’m hoping you could kind of talk a little bit about how, obviously, we’ll see the benefit of the strong value market in air, in aircraft in the sales numbers and sell them in the fourth quarter and likely see them in 2023. Can you talk about how that’s going to be manifested in lease rates? And whether you’ve assumed any of that in your 2023 guide?

Aengus Kelly: Sure, Moshe. So overall, we’re seeing lease rates going up. We’ve seen that for more than the past year. So that has that has been accelerating. And we’ve factored some of that in obviously, we’re leasing well in advance. So if we’re signing at least today, that’s likely to be for 12 months’ time from now. Right. So you don’t you don’t see there’s a lag in terms of that effect. But obviously, it does affect future years. So we’ve reflected that in. I mean, in terms of basic lease rents, I would I think the fourth quarter run rate is a pretty good starting point, if you’re thinking of it that way. And you should see those growing somewhat each quarter as the fleet grows somewhat throughout the year. That’s what I would expect.

Moshe Orenbuch: Great, thanks. And, I think we’ve had this discussion about your guidance in the past as being conservative as excluding some of the items that are in there. And in talking with investors this morning already, I think there’s been some confusion I guess — the fact that you kind of on the slide on page 13, kind of exclude the mark-to-market of interest rate caps and swaps, that doesn’t mean that you expect that to be necessarily zero in 2023. Is that, and some of those other items that are that are on there, some — they don’t, they won’t necessarily be zero in 2023, correct?

Aengus Kelly: Correct. And maybe I’ll take a moment Moshe just to talk about those. So the mark-to-market of interest rate caps and swaps. During 2022 we had a benefit from that, because interest rates rose, and the value of those derivatives of those caps and swaps rose, so we had to mark that to market. So we’re not projecting, we’re not making an assumption about that in in 2023, that that’s going to happen again, right, so. So that’s, that’s that item. Some of the other ones like the lower income as a result of the Ukraine conflict. So that reflects the rent that we got on our Russian aircraft during the first quarter less the depreciation on that, that’s obviously gone, right. So I would not include anything for that. And then we’ve reflected the cargo conversion program.