Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript March 12, 2026

Aemetis, Inc. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $-0.24, expectations were $-0.2424.

Operator: Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Aemetis, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Review Conference Call. Joining us today are Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Aemetis, Inc., and Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Waltz. Sir, the floor is yours.

Todd Waltz: Thank you, Ollie, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $53.7 million compared to $47 million in 2024. Quarterly gross profit improved to $7.7 million compared to a gross loss of $2 million in the prior year period. Operating loss improved to $2.5 million compared to $13.5 million in 2024.

The net loss improved to $5.3 million compared to $16.2 million last year. For the full year 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $208 million compared to $268 million in 2024. Operating loss improved to $37.2 million and net loss improved to $77 million compared to $87.5 million in the prior year. During the fourth quarter, ethanol and RNG operations generated $10.3 million of production tax credits, reflecting the growing contribution of federal clean fuel incentives to the company’s financial profile. With that overview, I would like to turn the call over to Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis, Inc.

Eric McAfee: Thank you, Todd. Before discussing the business segments, I want to highlight three key takeaways from the fourth quarter and last year. First, our dairy renewable natural gas platform reached an important during 2025, achieving positive segment net income and EBITDA while production increased 61% year over year in the fourth quarter. We generated net income of $12.2 million in our biogas segment in 2025. We expect strong annual growth in cash flow and profitability from the biogas segment for the next four years as 45Z is implemented and we continue to expand production. Second, during 2025, we continue to advance mechanical vapor upgrade at our Keyes ethanol plant, which is expected to increase plant cash flow by approximately $32 million per year when completed in 2026.

And third, revenue from dairy RNG and ethanol production is generated by renewable fuel sales as well as environmental credit monetization, including LCFS credits, federal D3 RINs, and 45Z production tax credits. The 60% increase in the price of Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits in the past nine months since the LCFS was extended by 20 years, and the recent Treasury guidance for the 45Z production tax credit are important contributors to our growth in revenue and cash flow. Our dairy RNG platform continues to grow production as becoming a significant driver of revenue and cash flow growth at Aemetis, Inc. During 2025, the dairy RNG business produced approximately 405,000 MMBtus of renewable natural gas and expanded to 12 operating digesters.

Looking ahead, we expect RNG production to grow during 2026 as additional dairy digesters come online, with equipment fabrication contracted for the H2S cleanup and biogas compression units for 15 digesters, which will double the number of operating dairies in our network. Turning to our California ethanol business, the Keyes ethanol plant generated $158 million of revenue during 2025 and has approximately 65 million gallons of annual production capacity. We began receiving equipment on-site for the installation of the mechanical vapor compression system at the ethanol plant for completion later this year. The MVR system is expected to reduce natural gas consumption by 80%, lower the carbon intensity of ethanol produced by the plant, and increase annual plant cash flow by approximately $32 million.

In India, our biodiesel facility generated $29.7 million of revenue during 2025, and has significant available capacity to supply expanding government goals for biodiesel blending. Our plant has approximately 80 million gallons of biodiesel production capacity along with about 8 million gallons of glycerin refining capacity. India continues to represent an attractive growth opportunity as a country focuses on the production of domestic renewable fuels to displace imported crude oil and to supply fuel to a fast-growing economy. We are expanding the India business into biogas production and sustainable aviation fuel as part of our work on an initial public offering of the India subsidiary this year. Looking ahead to 2026, our focus is on scaling production and monetizing the environmental credit values associated with our renewable fuels platform, as well as completing the India IPO and long-term refinancing of existing debt.

Key policy developments include the finalization of the 45Z emissions rate calculation by the Department of Energy, further strengthening of LCFS markets, expanded ethanol markets via E15 blending approval in California, and biodiesel blending mandates in India are expected to support long-term growth in low carbon fuels. Thanks to our shareholders, analysts, and partners for your continued support. Operator, why do we not take some questions now?

Q&A Session

Operator: Yes, indeed. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. It may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital. Your line is live.

Derrick Whitfield: Yes. Good morning, Aemetis, Inc. team. Great job with the year-end close. Wanted to start with your U.S. business. Maybe, Eric, just at a high level, could you give us your expectations for capital investment for 2026 between your RNG and your ethanol business?

Eric McAfee: We will be wrapping up our MVR system. Total investment there is going to be roughly in the $40 million range. We will also continue to expand. We have 15 contracted H2S units for the next 15 digesters we are building. That is about a $27 million contract that we have with NPL. And then, separately, the build-out of those 15, which will overlap into 2027, is roughly going to be another $70 million on top of that. So we continue to grow the assets, but our refinancing existing debt includes financing for the assets I just mentioned. And so we are fully financed for the completion of the MVR system. We are fully financed for the $27 million of H2S units. And as we roll out additional digesters, we expect to continue doing the type of 20-year financing which we have completed. As you know, we completed two financings at 20 years each for our first Aemetis Biogas 1 and Aemetis Biogas 2 entity. We are working on Aemetis 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 right now.

Derrick Whitfield: That is terrific, Eric. Then maybe shifting over to ethanol. Margins are quite positive, even before accounting for the MVR investment. How are you thinking about EBITDA generation for that asset in 2026?

Eric McAfee: Ethanol for us is a story of two worlds: pre-MVR and post-MVR. So this quarter, next quarter, we are going to be benefiting from removal of indirect land use change penalty for our corn on top of our existing carbon intensity. So we are currently at roughly $12 million a year, as you know, they are all granted to the nearest five. So we are currently roughly at that $12 million a year run-rate. That is not including any CO2 reuse. We are waiting for the GREET model and potentially a provisional emissions rate that could be used, the CO2 reuse, to lower our carbon intensity, but not including CO2 reuse, we are roughly $12 million a year. Post-MVR, we get rid of 80% of our natural gas cost, but also 80% of the penalty that we have for natural gas use.

So post-MVR, 45Z and LCFS values go up and generate roughly another almost $3 million a month of cash flow. So we should be running about $4 million a month on just the 45Z plus MVR starting in what we are currently targeting as the third quarter for the MVR, but certainly going into the fourth quarter, that is what we expect to be. And then, on top of that is the LCFS credit price increase. It has already gone from $40 to $70. We would not be surprised at all to see it hit $100 this year and $150 or more next year, as we continue to see quarterly deficits. We do not see any scenario in which you do not see quarterly deficits in the LCFS program. So that would be incremental to the numbers I just gave you.

Derrick Whitfield: Great. Over to you, Eric. I appreciate it.

Operator: Thanks, Eric. Our next question is coming from Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright. Your line is live.

Amit Dayal: Thank you. Hi, Eric. Congrats on the execution in 2025. Looks like you guys are set up very well for 2026 as well. This $40 million investment in the MVR, how much of it has already been made or is the $40 million going to take place in 2026, Eric?

Eric McAfee: Much of it is already made. We are well past half of that right now. And the remaining balance happens over the next four months or so. But it is fully financed and has no equity dilution through the completion of it. We do not have any funding through the ATM or otherwise for it at this time.

Amit Dayal: So conservatively, should we assume contribution post-MVR to only come through in 2027?

Eric McAfee: Contribution should hit us in third quarter, be in full place in the fourth quarter. So it will affect roughly half of this year. Roughly.

Amit Dayal: Okay. And does the product coming out of this post-MVR need to be qualified, etcetera? Like the RNG had to go through an auditing process. Or will you be able to monetize right away those benefits?

Eric McAfee: It is the MVR; we are monetizing it “right away.” There is not a long year or two-year delay. One of the points you are making is relevant, which is not including the opportunity to run renewable natural gas into our plant under the rules. The renewable natural gas has to be directly connected from the production source to the ethanol plant. There are only a few plants in the U.S. that are structured that way. We happen to be the owner of one of those plants. So we have 50 dairies signed that can supply our ethanol plant with the renewable natural gas. That would be additional monetization that, in our structure, we really accrue to our dairy biogas business, not to our ethanol business. But, yes, we are definitely uniquely situated to have incremental economics for 45Z as well as LCFS by running our dairy RNG into the ethanol plant.

We expect that that will be something we will very, very seriously be considering. We are not announcing we are doing that yet, because we are waiting for the GREET model from the Department of Energy so we can do our final calculations.

Amit Dayal: Understood. Maybe just last one for me. I know you have not provided any formal guidance for 2026, cash flow, EBITDA, etcetera. But at a minimum, can we expect you to perform in line with sort of the cash flows we saw materialize in 2025?

Eric McAfee: We should be significantly in excess of 2025, which represented virtually no 45Z for the ethanol plant from a cash flow perspective, and minimal from our RNG. Our business is highly leveraged towards performance of the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit, which credit prices were $40 eight months ago. They are $70 today and should continue to rise. The cap is $268. And the 45Z production tax credit, which we have only monetized $5 million of, we did that the last couple days of the fourth quarter of last year. And that should be a significant generator. When the updated GREET model is released by the Department of Energy, as we know, we have the February 4, 2026 U.S. Treasury guidance that was issued that was consistent with the One Big Beautiful Bill of July 2025.

But we are awaiting the spreadsheet to show up on the website of the Department of Energy. From that, we will then be able to calculate with great precision actually what our total revenues are, and I think there will be an education cycle, which we will do with investors, to let them know what the dairy RNG molecule can do. I would cite Bloomberg’s podcast. You do not have to be a Bloomberg subscriber in order to get this podcast, but they did a half-hour podcast just a few days ago and described that dairy RNG and swine RNG are the big winners under 45Z, and that there should be $7 per gallon of revenue for dairy RNG from the 45Z. There are 8.6 gallons under the 45Z regulation in every MMBtu. So a million British thermal units is 8.6 gallons under the rule, and each gallon should be $7.

And there is a Bloomberg podcast if you want to learn about the value chain and how the calculation works, etcetera. That is available for public consumption.

Amit Dayal: I will take a look at that, Eric. Thank you. With respect to the India operations, will investors just have to learn to live with this start-stop situation over there? I know it is more sort of policy than your production capabilities. But is something going to change on that front, or is this how that market continues to operate?

Eric McAfee: Well, historically, the ethanol market operated that way until the government committed themselves to growth and then they went from a 1% blend to 20% straight-line in about 48 months. The biodiesel market is in a similar spot. The Russians and the Iranians have been selling heavily discounted crude oil into India. And about a month ago, the end of the 50% tariff that Mr. Trump imposed was an agreement by India not to import Russian oil and essentially indirectly fund the Ukrainian war with Indian money. And then, of course, the breakout of the Iranian war two weeks ago shut off the other cheap funnel of crude oil, which was in violation of the U.S. sanctions, but Indians have been doing it very commonly. Well, that ended two weeks ago.

So India does not have any domestic petroleum, natural gas, or even coal of any meaningful amount. So they have just had their two great opportunities in the world, which is to buy cheap petroleum and remain dependent upon petroleum, disappear, and the biofuels is a domestically produced job-creating agricultural economy-based industry. And that is why ethanol has gone from 1% to 20%, and we believe that biodiesel will have the similar kind of rise. Half a percent to 5% is a 10x expansion in the biodiesel business. Our IPO is not based upon solely being a biodiesel producer. It is also about the future energy in India which includes compressed biogas, which we would call in the U.S. renewable natural gas. In India, it is known as CBG, as well as sustainable aviation fuel, which is a very popular item in India right now.

The global sustainable aviation fuel market spent about 90 billion gallons, and flying in and out of Asia includes fueling up to meet European and other requirements, including the Singapore airport. So the business we are taking public in India is a global diversified biofuels IPO. We believe it will be the first global diversified biofuels IPO in the history of the India stock market. It happens to have as a centerpiece an 80 million gallon biodiesel plant that is well positioned to become a sustainable aviation fuel plant. And those contracts would be with international airlines and, to a certain extent, circumvents this issue about the domestic demand for biodiesel in the country. Though we do have bullishness around that demand and do plan to have expansion in the biodiesel assets and production capacity we have in India.

Amit Dayal: Thank you, Eric. That is all I have. Appreciate it.

Eric McAfee: Thanks, Amit.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from David Joseph Storms with Stonegate. Your line is live.

David Joseph Storms: Morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Just wanted to start with the Keyes plant. It looks like it has been running at about 90% capacity for the last two years. How comfortable are you with the current run-rate? And is there any potential plans to expand it once you are through the MVR Project?

Eric McAfee: We have an industry that, with the adoption of E15 in California, already had about 600 million gallons of new market open up from an approval perspective. And nationally, I think there will be an E15 adoption, certainly with the Iranian war. That is a top-of-mind affordability move. So I do expect nationally that ethanol plants will be looking at expansion as a strategic goal as we go from roughly 14 billion gallons of actual consumption in the U.S. to over 20 billion gallons with the approval of E15. There is probably a billion to a billion and a half gallons of available capacity just by debottlenecking and the like. But that is far short of the 6 billion gallons needed. And we currently have record exports of over 2 billion gallons a year, and those record exports could actually rise with continued adoption of ethanol blending worldwide, which puts a further strangulation on the number of available gallons for domestic.

But we have not announced an expansion campaign yet. I would note that there is a plant that just announced today that they expanded from roughly 55 million gallons to 105 million gallons by using existing tankage and doing certain process improvements. So there is certainly technology available, and we do plan to expand our business. We are currently expanding it by reducing our carbon intensity, reducing our operating costs, and optimizing the carbon. And, frankly, mechanical vapor compression will allow us to be positioned for that kind of debottlenecking and expansion. So I would expect this is going to be more of a 2027 story. We might talk about it later on this year, but, frankly, the margin improvement and sustainable positive cash flow from our existing asset is what we are focusing on right now.

And I think we are going to be looking to have optimized that by the end of this year and then focus on expansion plans.

David Joseph Storms: That is great color. Thank you. And then just one more for me. You have got some tailwinds coming out of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and I think it was even mentioned in your release that those tailwinds are starting to be implemented. Just curious as to how you see the logistics in the near term for the continued implementation of those tailwinds and maybe any more color you could give us there?

Eric McAfee: The big lift was July 4, 2025. In the Senate, House, and the White House when they negotiated a doubling of the number of years and a significant expansion in the amount of 45Z production value that biofuels would obtain, specifically removing indirect land use change penalty, which had depressed the amount that had been available. That was completely removed. We are now in the implementation phase of that political decision by the President, frankly, and also both the House and the Senate. And the first step of that adoption is the Treasury’s announcement on February 4, 2026 of 176 pages of tax guidance. There were no surprises in there, and we are now just awaiting the spreadsheet known as the GREET model from the Department of Energy, which will allow us to calculate the amount of 45Z revenue that we generate from every MMBtu or every ethanol gallon.

And I should make note that there is a process that was set up January 2025 called the provisional emissions rate. That was further refined in the February 4 guidance with what is called a Calculated Emissions Value Letter. And so the process of getting our own distinct additional value because we have done energy conservation and other enhancements in our facilities, that process of getting a CEVL was set up last month. And so we are actively seeking CEVLs that would allow us to have accurate calculations of both our ethanol as well as our dairy RNG business carbon intensity, but it is they call emissions rate. And so the adoption should be that the GREET model gets published this month by the DOE, and that in a very short period of time thereafter, a matter of weeks, we should get a Calculated Emissions Value Letter because we just have a couple of little cells that need to be entered with our unique data, and the number that comes out gets put on a piece of paper and issued to us.

And then, with no real work at all, we file that with tax returns. So it is a very simple process. Should be a very quick process. But the word “should,” unfortunately, is where the uncertainty comes in. We are waiting for the DOE to issue the GREET model, and we are waiting for the DOE to open up the Calculated Emissions Value Letter process so that we can get very accurate calculations.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Edward Moon Woo of Ascendiant Capital. Your line is live.

Edward Moon Woo: Yeah. Thank you, and congratulations on all the progress. As you talk about being the first global bioenergy company in the India market, have you considered expanding to other markets? And also, what is your expansion opportunities in India? Would you consider possibly a second plant?

Eric McAfee: Let us take India first because that is where we are actually implementing right now. We are definitely planning to locate plants near feedstock sources. And we have a special relationship with the leading feedstock supplier in the tallow business, for example, and so we do expect to have multiple plants located near feedstock sources. That gives us the advantage both on cost inputs, but also, frankly, puts us closer to the blending facilities that are also regional. But our India business is diversifying into biogas and then into one of our facilities making into sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel plant. And so our IPO in India is driving the adoption of new markets. Quite frankly, the Indians are not currently involved with, including sustainable aviation fuel, and there is a lot of excitement about getting independence from imported crude oil in India.

So we are in the middle of that process. And then the reason why it is global is our India business, the subsidiary, 100% owned by our company, will be making investments outside of India as part of the IPO. So we are looking forward to more information being disseminated to the market. As we put out our, what is known as, Red Herring and other documents, you will be able to read more about that.

Edward Moon Woo: Great. That sounds exciting. Wish you guys good luck. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Thank you. As we have reached the end of our question and answer session, I will now turn the call to management for closing remarks.

Eric McAfee: Thank you to Aemetis, Inc. stockholders, stock analysts, and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis, Inc.

Operator: Thank you for attending today’s Aemetis, Inc. earnings conference call. Please visit the Investors section of the Aemetis, Inc. website where we will post a written version and an audio version of this Aemetis, Inc. earnings review and business update. Ollie? Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s call, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.