Aegon N.V. (NYSE:AEG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And again, this is running off. So what you’re going to see over time is the CSM release is going to get lower and lower as those Financial Assets roll off. But here’s the important thing, when you think about the way that we generate earnings, and we’ve talked about this quite a lot at the Capital Markets Day, is we would expect to see a pickup in the earnings that are generated from businesses that are not accounted for under IFRS 17. So here, we talk about the growth in WFG. We talk about the growth in, for example, the U.K. platform sales, which as of 2020 are really not accounted for under IFRS — or not accounted for as insurance contracts, asset management, retirement plans in the U.S., ex the Stable Value funds and that sort of thing.

So you’re going to see this little tipping point where you got a reduction in the insurance results, and you’re going to see increases in the results for noninsurance. And I think that reflects pretty well what we talked about at the Capital Markets Day with respect to the Earnings On In-force development over time.

Operator: We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Michael Huttner from Berenberg.

Michael Huttner : I wanted to ask on the U.S. claims experience. Both of you can maybe split the mortality in the Long-Term Care. And you just said you didn’t expect the mortality to remain this strong. So I just wondered if you can give some more granularity around that. So the numbers are — I was thinking the numbers are lovely, but you, obviously, saying a lot going to carry on. And then the other question is, you did that Universal Life buyout program. Can you talk a little bit more about that? I remember it was a topic a little bit because I think you started it on the day of the Capital Markets Day or about then. And I was getting quite excited because you did similar programs in the variable annuities business. But I just wondered if it’s done now and what more can be done — just to get a bit more granularity around this.

Lard Friese: Thank you very much, Michael. This is Lard. Just to clarify your second piece, is this also pertaining to what we disclosed today about the reinsurance transaction, the with secondary guarantees?

Michael Huttner : Yes, please.

Lard Friese: Okay. So thank you very much. So on both questions, Matt, can I hand over to you?

Matthew Rider : Thanks, Michael. Yes. So on the first one on mortality, we have to look at it slightly differently between the way that it’s reflected in operating capital generation and the way that it’s reflected in the results for IFRS. But I think it’s easiest to do it on the operating capital generation side. So we had a — relative to our long-term expectations, we had about €34 million in the better claims experience on the mortality side and €1 million, so as I said before — on the morbidity side. So as I said before, we had good claims experience, but the vast majority of it is sitting in the mortality result. One thing that you may want to think a little bit about when we report under IFRS 17, the way that we reflect mortality experience is somewhat different than the way that we had reflected it before.

And here, we look at straight up basically the cash difference between our actual and our expected mortality based on our long-term management best estimate. And what you see in the first half of 2023, that it was basically €30 million worse than our long-term management best estimate expectations, which is actually not a lot given the size of the — not a lot given the size of the book. One thing I would note — or I would mention is that we did quite some assumption updates in the — for the first half of the year. So what’s going to happen now is we do our assumption updates as the last step in the process. We actually did some things from mortality, which would make our expectation worse. So what you’re going to see in that experience variance number is that, that should be reduced now that we did our assumption update.