Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (NASDAQ:AEBI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (NASDAQ:AEBI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript March 25, 2026

Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Aebi Schmidt Group Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Simone Grancini, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

Simone Grancini: Thank you, Sharon. Good morning, and welcome to the Aebi Schmidt fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. I’m Simone Grancini, the company’s Investor Relations Director. Joining me on the call today are Barend Fruithof, Group CEO, who will provide the fourth quarter and full year highlights, outlook and concluding remarks. Steffen Schewerda, CEO, North America; and Henning Schroder, CEO, Europe and Rest of World, who will detail the performance in the respective segments; and Marco Portmann, Group CFO, who will provide a financial overview. Before I turn the call over to Barend, I remind you that today’s comments include forward-looking statements subject to the safe harbor language contained in this morning’s press release and in Aebi Schmidt’s filings with the SEC. And with that, I hand the call over to Barend.

Barend Fruithof: Good morning, everyone. 2025 was a historical year for Aebi Schmidt, marked by the acquisition of the former The Shyft Group and our listing on NASDAQ. I’m extremely proud of our fourth quarter performance. As we see on Page 5, our order intake increased 46% in the fourth quarter versus 2024, and we ended 2025 with a record high order backlog. Our adjusted EBITDA increased 31% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, delivering a significantly higher adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.1% versus 7.4% in the prior year. And our strong cash flow enabled us to reduce our leverage to 2.8x, strengthening our balance sheet heading into 2026. I thank our employees for their exceptional contribution and our customers for their continued trust.

On Page 6, I provide you with some more details on these outstanding achievements. Our exceptional order momentum was driven by strong orders in airport and municipal and especially by a recovery in the walk-in-van orders. We believe this reflects a structural recovery in demand. On the other hand, we expect a continued softness in truck body and commercial markets with only a slow recovery in 2026. In terms of net sales, our fourth quarter grew 6% versus prior year. A 5% decline in legacy shift was more than offset by the rest of the group. Europe and the Rest of the World was a strong contributor to this performance with substantial organic growth in almost flat market. We also accelerated and increased the cost synergies from the acquisition of Shyft with an additional procurement and revenue synergy expected to materialize in the second half of 2026.

Ultimately, our adjusted EBITDA improved by 31% in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Europe contributed to this with an outstanding 234% increase year-over-year. Continuing on Page 7, we look at the foundations we have built that will deliver our 2026 growth path. First, our M&A strategy continues to deliver, and this goes beyond The Shyft acquisition. Both our smaller acquisition, LWS in the U.S. and Ladog in Germany continue to provide outsized growth to the group, and we see further opportunities for small bolt-on acquisitions. Second, we have launched multiple new products. This includes the first service body jointly developed by Monroe and Royal presented last week at the NTA. The launch of new compact airport products to enlarge our addressable market, and we are exploring to design a more cost-competitive offering of our Blue Arc truck.

Finally, we opened new locations and secured major first-time customers, which will support revenue and profitability in the second half of 2026. Let’s also briefly look at our brands on Page 8. We’re simplifying our brand architecture, sharpening our market presence and sending a clear signal that we are one powerful group. This makes it easier for our customers to navigate the group’s broad range of solutions, simplifies customer engagement and allows us to communicate in a more meaningful and cost-effective way. And now I turn the call over to Steffen.

Steffen Schewerda: Thank you, Barend. And good morning, everybody. Thanks for having me. We’re on Page #10. So to put it in one sentence, 2025 was an outstanding year, especially in terms of order momentum. Our airport business is seeing very strong order entry, also supported by the launch of our new products. These products are gaining really nice traction and first deliveries have been made to customers already. On the walk-in-van side, we see a recovery of the market, combined with what we believe is market share growth. On the commercial side, we see some softness, which we are able to partially offset by stronger fleet demand. And our Municipal segment shows very strong quoting and order entry. That confirms our strategy to expand our geographical footprint.

Slide 11, please. As you can see, our backlog increased by 25% in the fourth quarter versus prior year. That was driven by a 63% increase year-over-year in order entry. Net sales and adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was slightly below the fourth quarter in 2024. This was mainly driven by the softness in walk-in-van and truck bodies and included ramp-up expenses for walk-in-van production and additional locations. And looking at these KPIs, it is clear what the focus points for 2026 are. It is order conversion and profitability, and I will explain this a little bit more in detail on the next Slide #12. So based on our strong backlog, we are positioned to deliver growth in 2026, which we expect to accelerate throughout the quarters. On the market side, we expect that we will continue to realize strong order entry.

This is driven by market recovery, market share expansion and also the introduction of new products. On the sales conversion side, our new location in Chicago is now fully operational. We are starting to deliver the first municipal snow and ice trucks to a major DOT starting in April. Two new upfit centers in Minneapolis and Toronto are also gaining traction. And on the walk-in-van side, we are already starting to increase output, which we expect to accelerate in the second quarter. And on the profitability side, we are executing on vertical integration in our Commercial segment. In addition, we expect to realize material cost savings in the second half of the year, and our cost structure is being aligned as we speak. Our increased output will also result in higher plant efficiencies, of course.

And on top of that, we are planning to consolidate some of our warehouses in the Midwest to gain efficiencies in logistics and net working capital. And with that being said, thank you, and I hand it over to Henning.

Henning Schroder: Good morning. I describe 2025 as a landmark year for Europe and the Rest of the World in terms of order intake growth and strong profitability development throughout 2025. As written on Page 14, our markets are gaining strong traction, particularly in airport, municipal complex sweepers and agriculture. The Airport segment is entering a pivotal year with multiple large tenders expected, fueled by rising defense budgets, driving military-related demand and increasing local content requirements. The municipal sector continues to be powered by complex sweepers, delivering double-digit growth for our core products in 2025. Ladog products have exceeded expectations. We are accelerating our capacity expansion plans, while winter products show a mixed performance due to limited snowfalls across many European countries.

Agricultural Products showed strong momentum in 2025, growing more than 30% versus 2024, supported by the rollout of the new generation of Aebi Combicut motor mowers. Slide 15, please. In Q4, we sustained growth in order intake and delivered a significant 25% year-over-year sales increase, driven by airport, municipal and spare parts. I’m especially proud of the team for delivering an exceptional 234% year-over-year increase in profitability, an outstanding achievement powered by strong volumes, solid gross margin performance and disciplined OpEx control. Proceeding to Page 16, our strong 2025 performance provides the foundation for positive year-over-year quarterly and sequential improvement throughout 2026. On orders, we expect to leverage our expanded dealer network to accelerate the Europe-wide Ladog rollout, build on strong Municipal and Agricultural momentum, following successful product launches and capitalize on our centralized airport tender team to secure large global deals and increase win rates.

On sales margin, we expect to implement factory efficiency programs and finalize production relocations to reduce material costs. We will utilize our EU pricing engine to optimize margins in spare parts and realize the benefit of implemented price increases across new business and aftermarket segments. On cost control, we expect to capture the benefits of regional back office consolidation, further leverage our Eastern Europe corporate center and convert disciplined OpEx management into tangible cost savings. That concludes my comments, and I turn it over to Marco.

Marco Portmann: Thanks very much, Henning, and good morning, everyone. As you have heard already, 2025 ended with significant order momentum as we captured many market opportunities following the acquisition of the former The Shyft Group. On Page 18, we see this exceptional order performance resulting in a very healthy order backlog of over $1.2 billion, up 21% year-over-year and providing good visibility into 2026. And we expect to see significant improvement in net sales materializing in the second quarter and especially the second half of 2026 out of that backlog. On the topic of seasonality, our demand cycles generally lead to a strong year-end with a comparatively slow start into a new year. For 2026, we expect this quarter-by-quarter seasonality throughout the year to be even more pronounced than in an average year, more on this later by Barend.

Moving on to Slide 19. Net sales in the fourth quarter reached $528 million, representing a 6% year-over-year increase and bringing full year sales to $1.9 billion, a 2% increase compared to 2024. Looking at our fourth quarter net sales in a bit more detail. Sales in North America decreased 2% versus the fourth quarter 2024 due to the pronounced weakness in the acquired Shyft businesses with a 5% decline, which could not be fully compensated by the 2% growth in the legacy Aebi North American businesses. Sales in Europe and the Rest of the World increased by a notable 25%, contributing to over 1/3 of total net sales in the fourth quarter. Looking at profitability on Slide 20. On a full year pro forma basis, we turned a 2% net sales increase into a strong 13% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, delivering $156 million in full year 2025 or an 8.2% adjusted EBITDA margin.

In our fourth quarter specifically, we converted a 6% net sales increase into an impressive 31% growth in EBITDA versus prior year fourth quarter, delivering $48.1 million of adjusted EBITDA in that fourth quarter 2025, equal to a 9.1% margin. North America’s EBITDA margin was flat on the back of that 2% net sales decrease, while Europe and Rest of the World delivered a significant EBITDA growth with over 600 basis points improvement. Finally, having a look at our balance sheet on Slide 21. Net working capital decreased by $29 million or 6% since September to $423 million as of December 2025. This decrease was driven by a $38 million lower inventory, reflecting both improved efficiency and the seasonal decrease at year-end. On the back of a strong cash flow in the fourth quarter, our net debt decreased to $437 million as of December 31, 2025, a decrease of $32 million compared to September.

With this, we have also delivered a first significant step to reduce our leverage, improving almost half a turn to 2.8x as of year-end 2025 with our communicated target to improve to below 2.0x by year-end 2026. That concludes my comments, and I hand it back to Barend for closing remarks.

Barend Fruithof: Thanks, Marco. Let me start my concluding remarks with a summary of the key achievements in 2025 shown on Page 23. We’re outperforming on synergies, expecting to deliver over $40 million versus our initial $25 million to $30 million target. Our intake increased by 22% versus 2024 and adjusted EBITDA improved by 13%, reflecting strong operational execution. At the same time, we launched new products and opened new locations, further strengthening our foundation and positioning the company for sustainable growth. Continuing on Page 24. Looking at 2026, we expect a pronounced quarterly seasonality, mainly driven by market conditions and geopolitical uncertainty. Q1 will start slow as our strong walk-in-van orders will convert into revenue beyond the quarter, while the commercial market remains very soft despite some signs of recovery.

In Q2, we expect order conversion to accelerate, supported by our ramp-up of production and upfitting capacity. By Q3, we expect improving market conditions in the commercial and fleet markets and the realization of procurement synergies. And finally, in Q4, we expect to benefit from the usual seasonal strength, especially in Europe and the rest of the world. Moving on to Page 24 for the outlook. Let me conclude with our 2026 guidance and priorities. We expect net sales between $1.95 billion and $2.15 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $175 million and $195 million, and the leverage at year-end 2026 at or below 2. To deliver this, we expect to maintain strong order momentum and accelerate backlog conversion into net sales through better production efficiency.

We expect to drive profitability through efficiency gains at legacy Shyft, optimized footprint utilization and delivering our synergies. And at the same time, we will maintain our strong focus on leverage and balance sheet. In short, our 2026 focus is on disciplined execution to sustain and build on the strong momentum achieved in 2025. That concludes our presentation. I now turn it over to our operator to open up the line for questions. Operator?

Q&A Session

Operator: [Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of Greg Lewis from BTIG.

Gregory Lewis: I was hoping you could talk a little bit more. I mean, clearly, it looks like we got finished and started with some order momentum in the walk-in-van market. Kind of as you see that playing out, like what’s kind of some of the things that customers are talking about and driving that? One of the things that we had heard last week was around just, hey, the fleet is just — it’s just time for some renewal. Any kind of sense for how much of this is renewal? How much of this is demand? How much — like how can you kind of frame that just given your confidence in the potential increases in walk-in?

Steffen Schewerda: Right. Greg, good morning. This is Steffen. I’ll take that question. So what we are seeing and believing is that it is both. We are entering a phase of renewal at this point in time and one market participant is buying more than the other one. I mean we know who the big — two big players are. But we believe it is a combination of renewal and additional demand. And we see this going forward, not just a blip here over 1 or 2 quarters. When we talk to the customers, that is structural and sustainable demand here.

Gregory Lewis: Okay. And then I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the backlog. You mentioned — you called out that the backlog points to about 15 — is spread out over 15 months. Is that something where the backlog is? Is the duration of the backlog increasing, decreasing versus maybe where it was a year ago, is part of that a mix of what is being ordered?

Barend Fruithof: Greg, thank you very much for this question. So I mean, we were able to increase our backlog on a pro forma basis if you compare it with 2024. And there is a bit of a mixed picture. So we have a very strong backlog in our municipal business as well as in our Airport business, for example. We were also able to increase our backlog in Europe versus previous year, which is a very good development given the market circumstances. And at the same time, we were also able to massively increase our backlog in the walk-in-van business. We’re having some challenges in the commercial market as well as in the truck body market. So there we need to do some more work. And we expect that the market will improve, and we see already first signs in that area.

Operator: We will take the next question, and the question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky from D.A. Davidson.

Michael Shlisky: Some of your truck body comments that you made, you mentioned that it’s been slow, but there was so much excitement about the new truck bodies that you’re introduced in — at the NTA show last week. Do you think that your truck body business will outperform the broader market in ’26 just on that new product? And just tell us about how it may have been received at the show. What are customers telling you about the new product there?

Steffen Schewerda: So Mike, this is Steffen. I’ll take that one. So what we introduced on the show was a new service body on the commercial side. Basically, that is part of our committed integration here, more vertical integration. We talked about this in numerous occasions here. So the service body on the commercial side has very, very good feedback. On the truck body side, the new product we showed was — you could see this on the Isuzu stand. This is a cooperation together with Isuzu. It’s called the Advantic. We are the exclusive partner for Isuzu getting this into the market. To answer your question, I do not really believe that we will outperform the market here in 2026, but I truly believe that we will put a strong foundation here into place over the next quarters then to accelerate in 2027.

Michael Shlisky: Great, great. Secondly, a large e-commerce company has announced in the last couple of days that they plan to scale back or stop using the USPS for a lot of their deliveries. They’re USPS’ biggest customers. I presume they’re going to have to take some of that delivery volume in-house as well as farming out to the other large delivery providers. If they’re using the other providers, if they’re using their own vehicles, and I know that they have some of their own kind of custom-made vehicles, but they are a mixed fleet. If that changes away from the USPS, is that a positive for Aebi Schmidt going forward as far as mix of how much business you can capture now? Or was USPS a pretty big customer, and there won’t be much of a change here?

Steffen Schewerda: Mike, I believe that this is an advantage for Aebi Schmidt. I mean, in this context, there was also the notion of, “Hey, we do it within 1-hour delivery or 3-hour deliveries,” where customers pay a little bit more. We’re talking about the same article here and the same announcement. So I believe it will drive additional demand. The question is what kind of vehicle, what kind of concept will this be? But I believe in our product portfolio, we have something to participate in that market, and we are in active discussions.

Operator: Your next question today comes from the line of Matt Koranda from ROTH Capital.

Matt Koranda: I guess I wanted to hear on the midpoint of the adjusted EBITDA guide for ’26, it looks like about nearly $30 million in improvement. But I guess you guys have said synergies in total are north of $40 million from the combination. Obviously, that gets realized over a couple of years. So I just wanted to hear a little bit about how much gets realized in ’26, and what’s built into the full year guidance?

Marco Portmann: Yes, thanks. Good morning, Matt. This is Marco speaking. So yes, midpoint, $185 million of our adjusted EBITDA guidance, and — I mean to reiterate in 2025, right? So we always said we’re going to deliver at least $40 million in total now. And out of that, we have realized in ’25 somewhere in the mid-teens. That’s predominantly cost synergies. And we expect the same amount to realize also in 2026 on top of that. Keeping in mind that specifically the procurement synergies, they will kick in, in the third quarter 2026. Again, that’s relating also to what we just talked about with the service body. And we have also revenue synergies, which are predominantly kicking in, in the second half of 2026 as well. Before we will then see the full realization by summer 2027 as we have initially announced pre-merger.

So we’re still fully on track to that. But also keep in mind, it’s not just the synergies. If you look at the different — the difference between 2025, ’26, there’s also one-off expenses that we have to account for 2025, we faced some additional stuff that isn’t part of the adjusted, some ramp-up expenses that are operational, some compliance topics, a couple of these things. And also in Q1 now ’26, we’ll still have some ramp-up expenses, specifically in the walk-in-van business.

Matt Koranda: Okay. Got it. And I wanted to hear a little bit more about the seasonality commentary that you gave in the prepared remarks. It sounds like you said first quarter, usually your lower quarter in terms of seasonality, but might be a little bit more pronounced this year. Could you unpack some of the factors that are causing the more pronounced seasonality? And is that more pronounced in one of the two segments in North America or Europe, or is it both? I just want to hear a little bit more about how to think about it.

Marco Portmann: Yes. I mean, I think commentary is right. Generally speaking, we do have quite a bit of seasonality, a bit more than maybe typically would be expected, coming especially a little bit from the ordering cycles we see in Europe, but also generally the snow business or snow-related business that we have. And as we said, in 2026, this is going to be quite a bit more pronounced. So we will see, of course, a slower start in Q1 because these walk-in-van orders, while we do have the backlog now, and we still see the good momentum, it will materialize only beginning in Q2 really. And we still have some one-off expenses associated with that ramp-up in the first quarter. So we don’t have the revenue yet, but also some costs already flowing in.

And that also from a segment view, will hit us, of course, in the U.S. So you will see that if you compare Q1 U.S. or North America as the segment officially is called versus last year. In Europe, you will see quite a good improvement Q1 over Q1. But of course, keeping in mind that Europe has had a slow start in 2025. So yes, you see that basically coming in out of the order backlog that wasn’t there in Q4 that now leads to that lack of revenue basically in Q1 walk-in-vans, and again, commercial truck body, we commented on that. It is a soft market. We still see that, and that will persist through Q1 or does persist through Q1. We can say that as of today. And of course, the geopolitical environment also didn’t really help in the last couple of weeks.

So you feel that as well. And then you have basically in Q2, Q3 of the ramp-up, as we explained, and the fourth quarter really will be, I would say, similar to what you have seen now in the dynamics in 2025, but again, more pronounced that this is really the strong quarter that will bring the year together. I just wanted to be precise on that to rightsize expectations on our quarterly momentum of 2026.

Barend Fruithof: And Matt, just to add one point. As you know, we have built a new upfit center in Chicago that will help to accelerate our backlog in the municipal area into more sales. And we will see already an improvement in March, and that will then go up already in the second quarter. And that’s also a good thing then to reduce our backlog and turn it into sales in the municipal area.

Operator: This concludes the Q&A for today, and I will now hand back to Simone Grancini for closing remarks.

Simone Grancini: Thank you, Sharon. I thank everyone for joining today’s call and your interest in the Aebi Schmidt Group. As always, please reach out to investor.relations@aebischmidt.com if you have any follow-up questions. And with that, Sharon, please disconnect the call.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.