AdaptHealth Corp. (NASDAQ:AHCO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Unidentified Analyst: This is Christian Schuman on behalf of Brian. So going into 2023, just kind of make sure on how we should be thinking about the Q1 seasonality, sequential EBITDA trends kind of like we had touched on with the weakness in Q4? And then also third quarter, the EBITDA cadence.

Jason Clemens: Sure. Good question. This is Jason again. I would say, firstly, that if we look at the full year revenue guide, we are projecting a 7.7% increase in non-acquired growth over 2022, that is down from what we predicted previously, namely due to the factors in our rental portfolio as well as diabetes that we discussed. . I would tell you that Q1 non-acquired growth, we believe, will be in the area of 6.5% to 7% nonacquired growth and will step up over the course of the year due to changes we are installing regarding sales focused commissions, incentives related to sparking growth within those rental product lines. That will take a little time to pull through, but we do expect that to pull through over the course of the year. In terms of margin profile we’re expecting 21.3% of full year adjusted EBITDA. I would tell you that the shape of EBITDA for Q1 should be similar to what we saw last year for bottom line.

Operator: And we’ll take our next question from Joanna Gajuk with Bank of America.

Joanna Gajuk: This is Joanna Gajuk here. So just a couple of questions here. When it comes to your diabetes, you said obviously things are slowing down. And I guess, in January, you talked about 11% to 13% growth for ’23. So where is it shaping out? What do you assume for the guidance? And I guess how does this impact, if at all, your long-term guidance for diabetes.

Jason Clemens: Joanna, sure. This is Jason. I would say, firstly, that regarding diabetes, I think you referenced the word slowdown. Again, I wouldn’t articulate it as a the material slowdown in new start activity and volumes, I mean, again, we are responding to changes in payer mix, so the kind of the profile of revenue that we are earning in this product category is changing. After all, we’ve expected it to change over time. And again, we — as we look towards 2025, we had expected diabetes product line growth to land in the mid- to higher single-digit area for non-acquired growth. So we are seeing that faster than anticipated. I would say for 2023 we believe that we will deliver high single digit up to 10% of nonacquired growth within the diabetes category.

Joanna Gajuk: Okay. And then same thing, I guess, on sleep. It sounds like things are going better. And I guess, does that change any — or anything you’re seeing there, your prior comments on long-term growth out of there of 7% to 10%.

Jason Clemens: Sure. So within sleep, no change. We’re very pleased with the demand that we have within the sleep business. We are very confident that we will deliver the previous expectation for sleep revenue within 2023. I would tell you in terms of meeting that demand, we are not going as fast as we’d like. We appreciate, I think, the hard work of everyone out in the field in terms of responding to unpredictable receipt of PAPs. I mean we’re getting what we need, the timing of when specifically it comes in and how we’re getting that out to locations and patients. That is — we are managing it, but it is still unpredictable. So it’s all systems go. We are burning the variable pay over time that you’d expect for us to meet each and every patient that needs a PAP.