5 Numbers Behind Panera Bread Co (PNRA)’s Rise

5). 120: Panera plans to cut the ribbon on between 115 and 125 new cafes in 2013. That’s about exactly the same as the 123 locations that the company opened last year. Of course, all those new locations won’t come cheap. It costs the company nearly $1 million in pre-opening expenses for each new location. Overall, though, Panera expects the new cafes to help power sales growth of between 4% and 5% this year. Operating margin is expected to stay roughly flat. And Panera’s outlook calls for between 17% and 19% earnings growth for 2013. But if it beats that outlook by just a percentage point, this year will mark Panera’s sixth consecutive year of 20% or better earnings growth.

Bottom line
The one number that has many investors nervous about Panera is 30. That’s the earnings multiple the company’s shares fetch right now. And it looks expensive when compared to other casual-dining businesses. McDonald’s has a P/E of 18, and Yum! Brands, with all its potential growth in China, is valued at about 19 times trailing earnings. Still, given the strengths of Panera’s business model — and the fact that it routinely books earnings growth over 20% — I think 30 times earnings isn’t too high a price to pay for this solid performer.

The article 5 Numbers Behind Panera’s Rise originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Demitrios Kalogeropoulos.

Fool contributor Demitrios Kalogeropoulos owns shares of McDonald’s. The Motley Fool recommends Chipotle Mexican (NYSE:CMG) Grill, McDonald’s, and Panera Bread. The Motley Fool owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, McDonald’s, and Panera Bread.

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