In this article, we will take a look at the 12 fastest declining cities in Florida. If you would like to skip our discussion on the state’s economy, you can go to the 5 Fastest Declining Cities in Florida.
Florida has the 4th largest economy in the US and ranks 14th globally, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of over $1.1 trillion in 2023. The state’s economy has shown a steady growth rate of 1.8% over the past 5 years. In the third quarter of 2023, the GDP rose by 6.1%, higher than the 2.3% growth in the second quarter. Looking at the growth forecast for 2024, Florida’s economy is predicted to expand by 3.0%, which is higher than the national economy’s expected growth of 1.4%. Additionally, the housing sector is expected to grow in 2024 after a drop in sales and construction in 2023. Single-family construction is expected to lead, adding about 150,000 units to Florida’s housing supply, while multifamily construction is projected to contribute about 55,000 units to the market.
Currently, Florida has a 3% unemployment rate, and projections for 2024 suggest the addition of 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs. The trend of slower job growth observed in the final months of 2023 is expected to continue in the coming year. Overall job growth for 2024 is estimated to fall within the range of 1.0% to 1.5%. Certain industries, such as Professional Business Services, Financial Activities, and Information, may encounter slowing growth or even declines, while the Education and Health Services sector is expected to experience an increase in employment opportunities. While Florida is experiencing a population decline in almost half of its cities, it still ranks as the 3rd most populous state in the US and stands as the 5th fastest-growing state in the country. Over the past decade, Florida’s population has grown by 18%, increasing from 18.8 million in 2010 to 22.2 million as of 2022. Among the fastest growing cities in Florida, West Lake City leads with a 306% growth rate, increasing from 1,048 residents in 2020 to 4,255 in 2022. Davenport city follows with a 39.5% growth rate, witnessing an increase in population from 9,665 in 2020 to 13,485 in 2022.
In terms of revenue, Florida’s top industries include professional employer organizations, wireless telecommunications carriers, and new car dealers, generating $129.8 billion, $89.6 billion, and $85.1 billion, respectively, in 2023. The professional, scientific, and technical services, real estate and rental and leasing, and healthcare and social assistance sectors collectively contributed 40.0% to Florida’s GDP in 2023. Some of the key industry leaders are contributing to employment opportunities in the state, positively impacting the employment rate. Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT), The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) are amongst the largest employers in Florida, with 115,866, 77,000, and 49,000 employees, respectively, in 2023.
Here’s what Baron Funds said about Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) in its Q4 2023 investor letter:
“Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the world’s largest retailer and cloud services provider. Shares of Amazon were up 19.5% in the quarter and finished the year up 80.9%. Reported quarterly results were better than consensus estimates with 11% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency, a significant beat in North American operating profit as operating margins reached 4.9% and a recovery in the cloud division, AWS, which grew 12% year-over-year and management reported that the impact of customer optimizations was attenuating. We believe that AWS has many years of growth ahead as IT budgets continue switching from on premise to the cloud and as Amazon remains the clear leader in the market, with large incremental opportunities in application software, including enabling GenAI workloads. We also believe Amazon is well positioned in the short-to-medium term to further improve core North American retail profitability to above pre-pandemic levels, benefiting from its new regionalized fulfillment network and its growing margin-accretive advertising business. Longer term, Amazon has substantially more room to grow in e-commerce, where it has less than 15% penetration of the total addressable market.”
Our Methodology
To identify the 12 fastest declining cities in Florida, we examined the most recent available census data from 2022. We focused on population changes from the year 2020 and only picked cities with a population greater than 40,000. The cities have been ranked in ascending order of the percentage decline in population between 2020 – 2022. The data has been sourced from the US Census Bureau.
You can also check out the 11 Fastest Declining Cities in Texas here.
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12 Fastest Declining Cities in Florida
12. Sunrise City
Population Change: -0.8%
In Sunrise City, the average household income stands at $83,908, and the poverty rate is reported at 11.13%. The population breakdown by race reveals a diverse composition, with White individuals comprising 38.65%, Black or African American at 33.89%, Two or more races at 17.5%, Other races at 5.18%, Asian at 4.7%, Native American at 0.07%, and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander at 0.03%.
11. Miami Gardens City
Population Change: -0.9%
Miami Gardens City, located in Miami-Dade County, has a poverty rate of 15.43%. The median property value in the city stood at $259,100, with a corresponding homeownership rate of 68.5% in 2021. The city’s population breakdown by race indicates Black or African American as the majority residents at 65.06%, followed by White at 15.27%, Two or more races at 14.68%, Asian at 0.43%, Native American at 0.16%, and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander at 0.04%. Miami Gardens City has secured the 11th position on our list of the fastest declining cities in Florida.
10. Lauderhill City
Population Change: -0.9%
In Lauderhill City, the average household income is reported at $65,990, and the city faces a higher poverty rate of 18.6%. The racial makeup of the city is predominantly Black or African American, accounting for 79.3%, followed by White at 10.49%, Two or more races at 6.29%, Other races at 2.1%, Asian at 1.6%, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander at 0.12%, and Native American at 0.11%.
9. Hialeah City
Population Change: -0.9%
In Hialeah City, the average household income is around $67,710, while the poverty rate is very high, reaching 17.81%. Between 2020 – 2022, the total population in Hialeah City has declined by 0.9%. Spanish is the predominant non-English language spoken in the city, with 83,778 households using it. Additionally, Portuguese is spoken in 101 households, and Italian is the primary language in 40 households. Hialeah is at the ninth position on our list of the fastest declining cities in Florida.
8. North Miami Beach City
Population Change: -1.0%
In North Miami Beach, the average household income is $77,527, and the poverty rate stands at 13.52%. The racial distribution in the city shows a diverse composition, with Black or African American at 38.9%, White at 36.34%, Two or more races at 18.21%, Other races at 3.77%, Asian at 2.44%, Native American at 0.27%, and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander at 0.06%. Among these, Asians are more likely to experience poverty, with 19.81% below the poverty level, while Natives have the lowest poverty rate at 0.85%.
7. Oviedo City
Population Change: -1.1%
The average household income in Oviedo City is $140,211, while the poverty rate stands at 5.32%. White individuals constitute 70.16% of the total population in the city. Two or more races account for 11.86%, followed by Asians at 7.59%, Black or African Americans at 5.81%, and those identifying with Other races at 4.34%. Native Americans make up a smaller percentage at 0.25%. Among the racial groups in Oviedo, individuals who are categorized as Other are most likely to experience poverty, with 13.57% below the poverty level, while Asians have the lowest poverty rate at 0.63%. During the year 2021, the median property value in Oviedo stood at $332,300, with an impressive homeownership rate of 78.6%. In 2021, a significant majority of Oviedo residents, specifically 95.3%, held US citizenship, surpassing the national average of 93.4%. This indicates a positive trend as, in 2020, the percentage of US citizens in the city was slightly lower at 94.8%.
6. Pensacola City
Population Change: -1.1%
In Pensacola, the average household income is $95,450, and the poverty rate is a bit high at 14.12%. The demographic composition of the city reveals a diversity of ethnic backgrounds, with the majority being White at 66.17%. Following closely, Black or African American residents account for 23.22%, while those identifying with Two or more races constitute 6.4%. Asian representation stands at 2.32%. Additionally, there are smaller percentages for Native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders at 0.11% and Native Americans at 0.06%. In the year 2021, a typical home in the city held a median value of $220,000, with a homeownership rate standing at 61.4%.
In Pensacola, a significant majority of residents opt for a solitary commute to work, with the average duration of this commute being approximately 20.3 minutes. Pensacola is also home to prominent educational institutions such as Pensacola State College and the University of West Florida. Furthermore, companies like Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT), The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) also offer services to residents of the city.
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Disclosure: None. 12 Fastest Declining Cities in Florida is published on Insider Monkey.
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