In this article, we are going to discuss the best crude oil stocks to buy as tensions rise.
The ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran have caused significant volatility in global crude oil prices over the last few weeks. There are concerns that a potential American attack could prompt Iran to retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran all ship their oil through Hormuz, with oil tankers hauling about 16.7 million barrels a day of crude and condensate through the strait in 2025, according to Bloomberg. A potential closure of the all-important waterway could lead to major supply disruptions, pushing oil prices to skyrocket.
Kpler analyst Muyu Xu estimated in June 2025 that if Iran choked the Strait of Hormuz even for one day, it would drive oil prices to jump as high as $120 to $150 a barrel. For reference, Brent crude oil is trading at just over $70 per barrel as of the writing of this piece.
Moreover, on February 18, it was reported that the two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia also ended without a breakthrough, with Kyiv accusing Moscow of stalling efforts to end the invasion.
With that said, here are the Best Crude Oil Stocks to Invest in.
Our Methodology
To collect data for this article, we observed various companies operating in the crude oil sector and shortlisted those with upside potential of over 10% according to Wall Street analysts as of February 13, 2026. Lastly, we ranked these stocks by the number of hedge funds invested in them at the end of Q3 2025, as per the Insider Monkey database. The following are the Best Oil Stocks to Buy Now.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 427.7% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 264 percentage points (see more details here).
12. YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18
Upside Potential as of February 13: 25.30%
YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) is an energy company that engages in upstream and downstream oil and gas activities in Argentina.
On February 12, JPMorgan analyst Rodolfo Angele raised the firm’s price target on YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) from $51 to $54, while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating on the shares. The revised target indicates an upside of over 44% from the current levels.
On the same day, YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) signed a joint development agreement with Italian Eni and UAE-based XRG to advance Argentina LNG, a large-scale integrated gas and liquefaction project that will help position the South American country as a long-term global LNG supplier. The project, expected to deliver 12 million tons per annum (tpa) of LNG capacity via two floating facilities, is designed to include production, processing, transportation, and LNG export infrastructure. Under the agreement, the three partners will start front-end engineering and design and perform other key technical, commercial, and financing workstreams.
Horacio Marín, President and CEO of YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF), commented:
“This new step marks the formal inclusion of XRG into the project we have been developing together with Eni. These two world-class players allow us to position Argentina LNG as one of the leading LNG projects globally. We will now continue working very intensively to reach FID during 2H26.”
11. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 21
Upside Potential as of February 13: 36.75%
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST) is a leading independent operator, with its main assets in Vaca Muerta, the largest shale oil and shale gas play under development outside North America.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST) received a boost on February 4 when BofA resumed coverage of the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a price target of $88, indicating an upside of over 63% from the current share price. The move comes after Vista announced the acquisition of Equinor’s onshore business in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin on February 2. The $1.1 billion deal includes the Norwegian energy giant’s 30% stake in the Bandurria Sur production asset and its 50% holding in Bajo del Toro.
The Bandurria Sur assets produced an average of 24,400 boed in the third quarter of 2025, while Bajo del Toro, which is still in an early development phase, reported an output of 2,100 net boed. Miguel Galuccio, CEO of Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST), commented:
“The blocks fit perfectly into Vista’s portfolio, adding both flowing barrels and a deep inventory of highly productive, ready-to-drill wells that will underpin our growth trajectory.”
BofA views the transaction as positive when concluded. The firm estimates a potential IRR of 24% for the proposed acquisition under its Brent crude price assumptions.
10. Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE:TALO)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 29
Upside Potential as of February 13: 10.15%
Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE:TALO) is a leading energy company focused on offshore oil and gas exploration and production in the United States Gulf Coast, the Gulf of America, and offshore Mexico.
On January 23, Citi raised its price target on Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE:TALO) from $12 to $14, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares. The revised target indicates an upside of over 10% from the current levels.
Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE:TALO) is set to announce its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 24. The company revised its operational and financial guidance for the year in November and is now forecasting a total production in the range of 34.3-35.5 MMBoe, up from 33.3-34.7 MMBoe previously. Notably, Talos expects to achieve this higher production by spending less, as the company decreased its CapEx guidance for FY 2025 to a midpoint of $500 million, down from $510 million previously.
As of the writing of this piece, the share price of Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE:TALO) has surged by more than 13% since the beginning of 2026.
9. Magnolia Oil and Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 29
Upside Potential as of February 13: 11.62%
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) is an independent oil and natural gas company that engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) reported strong results for Q4 2025 on February 5, with the company’s adjusted earnings of $0.38 per share beating estimates by $0.01. The firm’s revenue of just over $317.6 million also managed to top consensus by almost $3.9 million. Magnolia achieved a new company record for production in Q4, averaging nearly 104,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and up 11% from the same period in 2024. For the full-year 2025, MGY’s total output surged by 11% YoY to around 100,000 boepd, with oil production growing by 4% YoY and averaging nearly 40,000 bpd.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) generated free cash flow of over $425 million in FY 2025 and returned approximately 75% of it to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.165 per share on February 6, and its current annual dividend yield is 2.54%.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) is targeting a 5% production growth in 2026, with spending expected to be approximately flat when compared to 2025.
8. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 31
Upside Potential as of February 13: 24.25%
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) is the largest publicly traded, non-operated upstream energy asset owner in the United States, engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties.
On January 23, Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) from $26 to $24, but maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the shares. The firm updated its 2026-27 oil price forecasts as of January 7, in conjunction with its Q4 preview for E&Ps, oil majors, and Canadian producers. The analyst expects the Q4 operational updates to be ‘fairly clean’, while it projects lighter cash flow from price realizations.
Earlier on January 21, Mizuho also slightly reduced its price target on Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) from $30 to $29, while keeping an ‘Outperform’ rating on the shares. The revised target, which still indicates an upside of over 13% from current levels, is part of the firm’s Q4 preview. The analyst cited wider natural gas differentials as the reason for the lowered target, but noted that NOG should see some stabilization in activity this year.
7. Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 32
Upside Potential as of February 13: 19.49%
Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR) is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources in the United States, with an emphasis on shale and other unconventional plays.
Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR) had a setback on January 27 when Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight’, while also trimming its price target from $71 to $47. The analyst believes that MTDR’s valuation ‘increasingly incorporates a range of structural considerations’, including higher capital intensity, variability in recent productivity trends, and a growth‑oriented strategy in a market that favors discipline.
Wells Fargo noted that while the energy company’s progress on capital efficiency or midstream monetization could help improve investor sentiment, the stock offers a more balanced risk/reward at current levels compared to industry peers.
Similarly, earlier on January 23, Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott also reduced the firm’s price target on Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR) from $56 to $52, but maintained its ‘Equal Weight’ rating on the shares. The lowered target still indicates an upside of over 10% from the current levels.
6. Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 42
Upside Potential as of February 13: 18.38%
Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM) is a publicly traded Delaware corporation focused on owning and acquiring mineral and royalty interests, primarily in the Permian Basin.
On January 23, Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott slightly lowered the firm’s price target on Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM) from $45 to $44, while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating on the shares. The revision comes as the analyst firm marked its 2026-27 oil price forecast in conjunction with its Q4 preview for E&Ps, oil majors, and Canadian producers. While the firm expects ‘fairly clean’ operational updates in Q4, it is forecasting lower cash flow from price realizations.
Similarly, earlier on January 21, Barclays analyst Betty Jiang also reduced the firm’s price target on Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM) from $60 to $54, but kept its ‘Overweight’ rating on the shares. The adjustment comes as Barclays updated its ratings and targets in the E&P sector as part of a Q4 preview. The analyst firm believes that the upstream sector’s cash return model ‘remains resilient’ amid the overall volatility and sees attractive investment opportunities in the US onshore.
Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM) is set to announce its Q4 2025 results on February 23.
5. SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 44
Upside Potential as of February 13: 39.62%
SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM) is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, exploitation, development, acquisition, and production of natural gas and crude oil in the United States.
SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM) announced on January 30 that it had closed its all-stock merger with Civitas Resources, creating a larger independent producer that will continue to trade under the SM Energy name. First announced in November 2025, the deal is valued at around $12.8 billion, including debt.
Following the merger, SM shareholders now hold 48% of the combined company, with the remaining 52% going to Civitas shareholders. The merged firm will hold about 823,000 net acres across the top U.S. shale basins, including Permian and Denver-Julesburg. The transaction is expected to save SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM) between $200 million and $300 million annually by reducing overhead and operating costs.
According to S&P Global, the merger is expected to help SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM) grow its total output by 133% YoY to 484,000 boepd in FY 2026, with production in the Permian Basin alone projected to jump by 186% YoY. The firm expects SM’s total revenue to more than double in 2026, rising 103% YoY to around $6.5 billion.
Beth McDonald, President and CEO of SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM), commented:
“Today’s close marks the start of our work together as one SM, a top 10 U.S. independent oil-focused producer, with a larger, complementary footprint across the highest‑return U.S. shale basins—including a premier Permian position. We are focused on effectively integrating the two companies to unlock additional free cash flow by achieving our previously announced annual synergy target of $200 to $300 million and executing our previously announced divestiture target of at least $1.0 billion over the next year. We expect these steps to further strengthen our balance sheet, accelerate our return of capital to stockholders, and drive considerable upside in our equity. We look forward to sharing our 2026 operating plan and our updated return of capital framework on our upcoming conference call in late February.”
4. Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE:PR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 47
Upside Potential as of February 13: 14.87%
Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE:PR) is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States.
On January 27, Wells Fargo analyst Hanwen Chang slightly raised the firm’s price target on Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE:PR) from $16 to $17, while keeping an ‘Overweight’ rating on the shares. The analyst highlighted that the macro oil environment remains pressured by surging output from OPEC and non-OPEC producers, pointing to a near-term supply glut that is weighing on prices. Amid the difficult outlook, Wells Fargo prefers frameworks with low reinvestment and strong capital discipline.
On the other hand, earlier on January 26, Susquehanna reduced its price target on Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE:PR) from $20 to $18, but kept its ‘Positive’ rating on the stock. The revision, which still indicates an upside of over 6% from the current share price, comes as the analyst firm updated its targets in the E&P group as part of a Q4 preview. Susquehanna also pointed out that the oil market remains oversupplied and dropped its 2026 WTI price assumption from $65 to $60 per barrel.
3. Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 49
Upside Potential as of February 13: 26.64%
With its premier acreage position in the Williston Basin, Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) engages in the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas.
On February 11, Piper Sandler reduced its price target on Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) from $160 to $151, but maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating. The revised target, which still indicates an upside of over 52% from the current levels, was driven by a revision to type curves, partially offset by increased three-mile allocation.
During its last earnings call in November 2025, Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) announced it expects oil production of 157,000 to 161,000 bpd in 2026, with total CapEx of roughly $1.4 billion. This preliminary outlook indicated approximately 4% higher oil volumes at around $100 million less in capital than in 2024. The company is set to announce its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial and operating results on February 26.
With a robust annual dividend yield of 5.26%, Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) is included among the 11 Best Energy Stocks to Buy for Dividends in 2026.
2. Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:OVV)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 52
Upside Potential as of February 13: 21.82%
Next on our list of the Best Crude Oil Stocks is Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:OVV), a leading North American exploration and production company focused on developing its high-quality, multi-basin portfolio.
On February 3, Stephens initiated coverage of Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:OVV) with an ‘Equal Weight’ rating and a price target of $44. The analyst believes that despite its ‘operational prowess’, the stock is attractively valued, with an estimated 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.6x, 30% below the large-cap oil peer group average of 5.1x.
Stephens highlighted that Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:OVV)’s divestment of Anadarko Basin assets could make the company around $3.5 billion. This will allow the E&P firm to bolster its balance sheet, reduce net debt by over 65% this year, and increase shareholder returns.
Also on February 3, Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:OVV) announced it had closed its previously announced acquisition of NuVista Energy, valued at $2.7 billion. The strategic move is expected to add around 930 net 10,000-foot equivalent well locations and approximately 140,000 net acres in the core of the oil-rich Alberta Montney. The company expects the acquired assets to produce an average of approximately 100 mboe/d in FY 2026.
Brendan McCracken, President and CEO of Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE:OVV), commented:
“These top decile rate of return assets in the heart of the Montney oil window are an exceptional fit with our existing acreage and infrastructure. The team at NuVista did a great job building these assets and we are excited to apply our industry-leading expertise to the combined position. We expect to generate cost synergies of approximately $100 million annually, including per well cost savings of approximately $1 million, consistent with our current Montney well costs.” McCracken continued, “The combination of this transaction with the planned divestiture of our Anadarko assets, will streamline and high-grade our portfolio, help us to meet or exceed our debt target, and uniquely position us with significant inventory duration in the two most valuable oil plays in North America, the Permian and the Montney.”
1. EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 61
Upside Potential as of February 13: 15.31%
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) is one of the largest crude oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the United States, with proved reserves in the US and Trinidad.
On February 13, Siebert Williams Shank & Co reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) and assigned the stock a price target of $150, indicating an upside of over 22% from the current share price.
Similarly, EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) received positive analyst attention earlier on January 27, when Wells Fargo raised its price target on the stock from $126 to $127 while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating. The analyst noted that the oil macro environment remains under pressure, as rising output from OPEC and non-OPEC producers is leading to a near-term supply glut and weighing on prices. Amid the tough outlook, Wells Fargo favors frameworks with low reinvestment and a strong capital discipline.
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) is set to release its Q4 2025 results on February 24, 2026. The company is targeting $4.5 billion in free cash flow for the full year 2025.
With an impressive annual dividend yield of 3.34% as of the writing of this piece, EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) is included among the 12 Best Crude Oil Stocks to Buy for Dividends.
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