Global commodity dynamics in mid‑2025 point to a market undergoing fragmentation, not collapse. While the World Bank projects an overall 12% decline in the broad commodity price index this year (after a smaller drop in 2024), the movement is anything but uniform. Energy markets are driving most of the pullback, forecast to fall 17% in 2025 and another 6% in 2026, while several key sub-markets have veered off-script entirely, defying gravity or plunging on policy shocks.
In July alone, the energy index slipped 0.6%, largely on the back of a 6% drop in European natural gas. Agricultural and raw material prices remained flat, food edged up 0.9%, while fertilizers climbed 8.1%. In contrast, beverage prices collapsed nearly 11%, driven by cocoa and coffee corrections following their parabolic rise earlier this year. Metals rose 1.5%, continuing a trend of quiet resilience beneath global trade volatility.
Oil remains a global fulcrum. OPEC+ restored over 2.5 million barrels per day in recent months, including a 547,000 bpd increase in September, without triggering a full price breakdown. Inventories remain tight, but a slowdown in global demand has kept Brent crude hovering around $68–70/bbl, with some bearish projections targeting sub‑$60 levels by year-end if oversupply materializes. Pricing behavior is now tethered less to physical scarcity than to trust in OPEC’s cohesion, and the perceived durability of China’s recovery.
Copper, the most industrially sensitive metal, saw a blistering 40% YTD surge, only to crash 22% in a single session following the U.S. tariff announcements, one of the steepest one-day drops in futures history. The violence of the move revealed how deeply speculative the rally had become, and how exposed commodities are to geopolitical signaling rather than industrial fundamentals. China’s own copper ore imports rose 6.4% in H1, while finished copper imports fell 4.6%, suggesting adaptive substitution amid price volatility.
Meanwhile, gold has gained around 15% YTD, buoyed by demand for perceived safe-haven assets and a weakening dollar narrative, while silver has quietly outperformed with a ~30% rally, supported by industrial demand linked to EVs and renewables. These movements show that monetary hedge and green transition themes are not fading despite the broader market’s slowdown.
And then there’s cocoa, a case study in supply fragility. After devastating crop losses in West Africa, prices spiked from ~$3,500/t to over $11,000/t, triggering historic volatility and a collapse in demand from major processors. Though prices have since come off those highs, the sector remains highly unstable, with speculative interest still dense.
Trading metrics reinforce the story: average daily volume in commodity futures rose to nearly 6 million contracts in Q2, a record figure, even as the composite price index declined. That divergence reflects not a collapse in interest but a rotation of capital, with volatility replacing momentum as the dominant driver.
In short: the 2025 commodity landscape is a patchwork. Some segments are oversupplied and drifting; others are cracking under structural strain. What emerges is not a synchronized cycle, but a jagged terrain defined by localized shocks, policy reactions, and speculative surges, more chessboard than tide.
Methodology
For our list, we scoured through commodity ETFs, and picked stocks that had the highest number of hedge fund holders as of Q1, 2025 across different branches of the commodities sector.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
11. Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 32
Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On July 17, 2025, Wells Fargo reiterated its Equal Weight rating on the company while nudging its price target from $59 to $62. Though the rating remained unchanged, the upward revision suggests a slight improvement in Wells Fargo’s view of Nutrien’s near-term prospects. The modest target hike likely reflects stable pricing conditions in fertilizer markets or incremental signs of margin recovery after a challenging period for the ag sector. Still, the decision to hold the line on a neutral rating points to lingering caution, perhaps tied to global demand uncertainty or tight cash flows.
Wells Fargo’s position aligns with a broader analyst consensus that sees Nutrien as fundamentally solid, but not yet primed for a breakout. The price target increase may signal confidence in operational execution or pricing discipline, but likely stops short of a bullish call due to structural headwinds or capital allocation concerns.
Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) is the world’s largest provider of crop inputs and services, with a strong presence in potash, nitrogen, and phosphate production. Headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada, the company serves growers across North and South America, Australia, and beyond.
10. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 42
CF Industries (NYSE:CF) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On July 14, 2025, the company marked a major step in its low-carbon transition by launching a new CO₂ dehydration and compression unit at its Donaldsonville Complex. The facility, developed in collaboration with ExxonMobil, is designed to capture and permanently store up to 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. With this infrastructure in place, CF expects to produce roughly 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year, opening the door to new markets and potentially more favorable regulatory treatment under clean energy mandates.
This carbon capture project also makes the company eligible for Section 45Q tax credits in the United States, which incentivize long-term sequestration efforts. The move signals that CF is not just talking sustainability but actively integrating it into its production model. As the global ammonia market begins to tilt toward lower-emission inputs, CF’s head start could pay off in both pricing power and institutional investor favor.
CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, supplying fertilizer and industrial solutions across North America and international markets. The company is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, and operates a network of production and distribution facilities across the U.S., Canada, and the UK.
9. Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 50
Shell (NYSE:SHEL) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy, but even the strongest players face headwinds in shifting markets. On August 1, 2025, HSBC downgraded the energy giant from Buy to Hold, citing growing concerns over its financial trajectory. The bank’s analyst Kim Fustier warned that Shell’s net debt could climb from around $43 billion in Q2 to over $60 billion by 2027, driven by operating cash flows failing to cover dividends, capex, and lease obligations.
Adding to the bearish tone, HSBC believes Shell’s trading division, once a standout profit engine, is set to normalize, dragging down returns. This expected decline, paired with deeper losses in its chemicals segment, led the firm to trim Shell’s 2025–2027 earnings and cash flow forecasts by 4 to 5 percent. While Shell currently trades at a premium to peers like TotalEnergies on EV/DACF and price-to-cash flow metrics, its lower yield and similar debt profile undermine that valuation gap. HSBC did nudge its price target slightly higher to $3,747, but the tone of the report made clear that the upside is limited and conditional.
Shell (NYSE:SHEL) is one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies, operating across oil, gas, chemicals, and renewables. It is headquartered in London and employs over 90,000 people in more than 70 countries.
8. Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE:TRGP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 55
Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE:TRGP) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy, and here’s why recent moves show they’re not complacent. On August 1, 2025, the company quietly ushered in a leadership transition in its logistics arm, announcing that D. Scott Pryor will retire next March and internal veteran Benjamin J. Branstetter will step into the role.
That internal elevation speaks volumes about continuity and confidence in the leadership bench. Before that, on July 28, the firm took care of business by extending its $600 million receivables securitization facility through August 2026, keeping a reliable, cost-effective liquidity line alive without rocking the economics. That kind of responsible financial housekeeping ensures operational flexibility and reflects sound planning amid energy market complexities.
Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE:TRGP) is a major midstream energy player in North America, owning and operating gathering, processing, transportation, and storage infrastructure for natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company enables energy delivery across key U.S. shale basins through its integrated midstream value chain.
7. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 59
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On July 17, 2025, Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd maintained a “Neutral” rating on Occidental Petroleum while raising the price target from $48 to $50, signaling a modest upside of roughly 14.6% based on recent trading levels. The commentary emphasized Occidental’s ongoing strategic efforts, like hefty cost cuts and diversity in operations across key regions including the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico, as reasons for the optimistic tilt despite a cautious rating.
This isn’t just a jog through numbers. Piper Sandler’s move tells us that Occidental is actively tightening its belt, optimizing output, and engineering a path for modest upside, all while managing headwinds with precision.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY), based in Houston, Texas, is a diversified energy company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and production across the U.S., the Middle East, and North Africa, and also operates a substantial chemicals unit under OxyChem. It’s a heavyweight in U.S. oil, known for strategic flexibility and integrated operations.
6. Teck Resources Limited (NYSE:TECK)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 62
Teck Resources Limited (NYSE: TECK) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy now. On August 8, 2025, Wells Fargo analyst Tiago Fauth reiterated an Overweight rating on the Canadian miner and set a $101 price target, describing it as “one of the most attractive risk/rewards” in his coverage. Fauth pointed to Teck’s strong liquidity, with a current ratio of about 3.47, and argued that market skepticism does not match the company’s solid fundamentals and valuable exposure to long-term copper demand.
The upbeat view from Wells Fargo comes as other firms take a more measured stance. Benchmark maintained a Buy rating on July 28 but lowered its target from $55 to $48. B. Riley and JPMorgan have moved to Neutral, citing operational challenges at the Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 project and softer near-term expectations. Jefferies and Raymond James remain constructive but have also trimmed price targets.
Teck Resources is a diversified miner, headquartered in Vancouver, with major operations in copper, zinc, steelmaking coal and energy. Its assets span Canada, Chile and the United States, and it is positioning copper at the center of its growth strategy to capitalize on the global energy transition.
5. EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 64
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On July 23, 2025, Susquehanna analyst Biju Perincheril raised their price target for EOG Resources from $156 to $170, while keeping a “positive” rating on the stock. In their outlook, they emphasized EOG’s solid fundamentals, multi‑basin portfolio, and strong free cash flow generation as key reasons behind their upgraded stance. Susquehanna’s confidence suggests they see EOG riding macroeconomic turbulence with agility, thanks to diversified assets and operational strength.
This isn’t just a numbers game. Susquehanna’s move signals that EOG is more than a fossil fuel throwback; it’s a resilient, cash-generating powerhouse built for energy volatility.
EOG Resources, headquartered in Houston, Texas, is a major U.S. oil and gas producer operating across top-tier basins like the Permian, Eagle Ford, Utica, and the Rockies, along with overseas ventures. It’s prized for its disciplined capital deployment, robust free cash flow, and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, still rocking long-term appeal even amid energy sector shake‑ups.
4. Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 65
Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On July 28, 2025, Raymond James reiterated its “Outperform” rating on Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) and raised its price target to $69 from $67, signaling confidence in the company’s near-term prospects. On the same day, CIBC analyst Anita Soni maintained a Neutral (Hold) rating while lifting the target from $60 to $74, reflecting expectations for potential upside. Both moves highlight analysts’ recognition of Newmont’s operational momentum and its strong leverage to gold prices.
These ratings came amidst Newmont’s stellar second quarter, where the company crushed expectations by earning $1.43 per share, beating the forecast of roughly $1.18; revenue surged, buoyed by stronger gold prices averaging over $3,320 an ounce.
Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, Newmont is the world’s leading gold miner, with diversified assets spanning North and South America, Africa, and Australia. It also mines copper, silver, lead, and zinc, and recently completed a $17 billion acquisition of Newcrest while divesting non‑core assets to bolster its balance sheet.
3. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 81
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. On August 6, 2025, Goldman Sachs held firm on its “Buy” rating, and even nudged its price target up from $175 to $177, after private meetings with Chevron’s top brass. The firm said it’s now “incrementally more constructive” on Chevron’s free cash flow outlook following discussions around the Hess integration, Guyana operations, cost-cutting efforts, and Permian and Gulf-of-America growth, signaling that the cash engine has room to rev up in 2026 and 2027.
Meanwhile, UBS’s very own Josh Silverstein just reiterated his “Buy” call and lifted the price target again, this time from $177 to $186, echoing confidence in Chevron’s tone and trajectory.
With both mega‑banks aligning behind Chevron’s free cash flow prospects, especially post‑Hess, the message is crystal clear: Chevron isn’t just enduring market turbulence; it’s gearing up for a strong rebound.
Chevron Corporation, headquartered in San Ramon, California, is a global integrated energy powerhouse with operations spanning upstream exploration, downstream refining, and chemical production. It’s best known as the second‑largest oil company in the U.S., generating massive free cash flow, funding dividends, and strategic buybacks.
2. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 84
Freeport‑McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy, even as BMO Capital trims short‑term expectations. On July 23, 2025, BMO reduced its price target to $54 from $55 while maintaining its Outperform rating on the stock, noting that the company delivered a “well‑executed quarter” despite a cut to its 2025 gold production forecast.
BMO analyst Katja Jancic emphasized that U.S. operations remain poised to benefit from cash flow tailwinds, even if tariffs weigh on the horizon, and that the stock appears attractively valued at roughly 6 times estimated 2026 EBITDA, or closer to 5 times if a 25 percent tariff is introduced.
Freeport‑McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. it’s a globe‑spanning mining giant renowned for its vast, low‑cost copper assets alongside meaningful gold output, serving as a backbone of global copper and gold supply.
1. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 94
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is one of the best commodity stocks to buy. The stock delivered a major operational achievement this month. On August 8, 2025, the company began production from its fourth floating oil production vessel, “One Guyana,” located in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana. Part of the Yellowtail development, the vessel boosts Exxon’s total installed production capacity in the region to more than 900,000 barrels per day and achieved startup four months ahead of schedule.
The company described the project as a demonstration of its execution capability, efficiency, and commitment to developing Guyana’s vast offshore resources. The crude produced will be marketed under the Golden Arrowhead name, and the milestone pushes Exxon closer to its goal of reaching 1.7 million barrels per day from Guyana by 2030.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is a global energy leader engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and chemical manufacturing, with a growing portfolio in low-carbon technologies. The company operates in more than 60 countries and manages an integrated value chain that spans from upstream production to downstream fuels and specialty products. Its Guyana projects have become a cornerstone of its growth strategy, offering high-margin barrels and long-term production stability.
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