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Why SSE Plc (SSE) Beats National Grid Plc (ADR) (NGG) and Centrica PLC (CNA)

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LONDON — In my last pick-of-the-sector report, I went for Barclays in the banking sector, and today I’m turning my attention to the utilities providers — the suppliers of gas, electricity and water.

National Grid plc (ADR)There are five utilities suppliers listed on the FTSE 100 — Centrica PLC (LON:CNA), National Grid plc (ADR) (NYSE:NGG), Severn Trent Plc (LON:SVT), SSE PLC (LON:SSE), and United Utilities Group PLC (LON:UU) —  and though there probably isn’t much to choose among them, I’m going to put them to the test.

Here’s a quick comparison:

Company Centrica National Grid Severn Trent SSE United Utilities
Supplier of Electricity, gas Electricity, gas Water Electricity, gas Water
Market cap £19.0bn £27.1bn £4.6bn £14.6bn £5.0bn
Recent price 368p 749p 1,765p 1,502p 728p
Share price growth 15% 14% (1)% 11% 8%
Historic EPS growth 6% 12% 11% 5% 11%
Forward EPS growth 3% (3)% (10)% (1)% 9%
Historic P/E 12.3 13.6 17.3 12.6 18.1
Forward P/E 13.1 13.6 21.8 12.9 17.0
Historic Dividend 4.9% 5.3% 4.4% 5.7% 4.8%
Forward Dividend 4.8% 5.7% 3.9% 5.8% 4.8%
Forward Cover 1.6x 1.3x 1.1x 1.3x 1.2x

Share price growth is over the past 12 months, historic figures are for the last reported full year, forward figures are for the next forecasts.

One immediate difference is the higher P/E valuations of the two water companies, but that’s not really surprising as they do have bigger moats around them — it’s a lot easier to plug a generator into the grid than to build a new reservoir. Other than that, we see pretty similar valuations across the board.

Are they cheap?
If the sector is undervalued, then what might a more reasonable longer-term valuation look like? I think we can get a feel from that from the recently aborted takeover attempt of Severn Trent Plc (LON:SVT). In its third and final failed try, LongRiver Partners made a bid of £22 per share, which was worth £21.54 once the already-declared final dividend of 45.51 pence per share was taken into account.

That’s a premium of 21% over the current share price, and was almost contemptuously rejected by the Severn Trent Plc (LON:SVT) board. Whether that was a fair valuation is hard to say, but it does tell us the price levels that people are haggling over.

Regulation
Moving in to the gas and electricity suppliers, one looming risk comes from Ofgem’s plans to further open up the energy market by forcing firms to post advance prices and make it easier for smaller operators to buy and sell power. But whether that will make a significant difference to the profitability of the companies we’re looking at here is not at all certain.

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