Puny pipelines
The future isn’t just affected by drugs currently on the market, of course. What about drugs recently gaining approval or in the late-stage pipeline?
AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb hope to attain success with diabetes drug Forxiga, which was recently approved in Europe but has to try again for FDA approval. AstraZeneca also expects to file for regulatory approval of another diabetes drug, SaxaDapa (gotta love that name), by 2015. Other than those, though, the company’s late-stage prospects that can possibly make a difference in the next two or three years aren’t overly impressive.
Bristol and Pfizer should both benefit from Eliquis, the blood thinner that recently obtained FDA approval. Some analysts say that Bristol has the best early stage pipeline in the business, but its late-stage pipeline isn’t as strong.
Lilly doesn’t boast the most promising late-stage lineup, either. The company had some disappointing news with a phase 3 trial of its Alzheimer’s disease drug, solanezumab, in August. However, Lilly is moving forward with more trials. The company also stopped one out of three phase 3 studies under way for potential rheumatoid arthritis drug tabalumab.
Pfizer looks to be in better shape. In addition to Eliquis, the company also obtained FDA approvals for chronic myeloid leukemia drug bosutinib and rheumatoid arthritis drug Xeljanz over the last several months. Pfizer counts several other promising drugs in phase 3 trials as well.
Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY) also seems to have decent prospects. European regulators approved cancer drug Zaltrap and diabetes drug Lyxumia over the past few months. The company also boasts several other drugs awaiting approval or in late-stage studies.
Frailest of all
With all factors considered, I’d have to say that Lilly stands (shakily) as the frailest big pharma. While the company has withstood the patent cliff better than several of the others, the impending loss of exclusivity Cymbalta, Humalog, and Evista will be very tough.
Lilly doesn’t appear to have anything on the radar that will replace the revenue drop that is sure to come. I have to agree with my Foolish colleague Sean Williams that the company has “the most perilous pipeline” in the industry. The stock gained nearly 39% over the past year, but I don’t expect that run to continue for long. Rear-view mirrors don’t help much with seeing what lies ahead.
The article Who’s the Frailest Big Pharma of All? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Keith Speights.
Fool contributor Keith Speights has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
Copyright © 1995 – 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
