The only thing we know for certain about Tibco Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TIBX)’s upcoming results is that they are likely to cause a lot of volatility in its stock price. It is an intriguing proposition. On the one hand the industry has been reporting better results in this earnings season. On the other, Tibco reported a nasty quarter last time around, articulating that many of its problems were self generated. So will Tibco release sterling numbers aided by better industry spending, or is it set to inform the market that its internal problems are continuing?
Tibco’s Bad Quarter
In order to accelerate understanding of the major issues, I would recommend looking at the article linked here. In summary, Tibco Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TIBX) eported a poor quarter last time around, with particular weakness in its US operations. Tibco’s management was forthright in claiming that this wasn’t about end market conditions and more about its US sales leadership failing to adequately execute. The panacea of changing the key personnel and a renewed focus on ‘blocking and tackling’ type measures topped off with a dollop of micro-management was swiftly proscribed.
Obviously if you are inclined to take the company’s guidance as gospel- to be fair, Tibco Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TIBX) does have an enviable track record of beating internal guidance-then this would be a decent buying opportunity. In order to put the last quarter’s results and the guidance for Q1 ($243 million in revenues, $86 million in licenses at the mid-point and $0.17-$0.18 in EPS) in perspective, I have created this graph.
Furthermore, the big data industry has been reporting better news recently.
What the Industry is Saying
Tibco’s key competitors are IBM, Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) and SAP. In addition, companies like Informatica, Teradata (NYSE:TDC), and Qlik Technologies (NASDAQ:QLIK) are also in the big data game, and are worth looking at in order to better gauge the industry.