Several weeks after the end of each quarter, hedge funds such as Renaissance Technologies- whose success since inception has made founder Jim Simons a multi-billionaire- file 13Fs with the SEC. We track these filings and process them in our database, using the results to help us develop investment strategies; for example, we have found that the most popular small cap stocks among hedge funds generate an average excess return of18 percentage points per year (learn more about our small cap strategy). We also like to screen managers’ top picks for stocks satisfying the traditional value criteria of low earnings multiples. Read on for our quick take on Renaissance’s five largest holdings as of the end of March in stocks with both trailing and forward P/Es of 14 or lower or see the fund’s stock picks over time.
The fund was a heavy buyer of International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) during the first quarter of 2013 and reported a position of 2.3 million shares in the filing. Even as the company achieves some success in its shift away from hardware and towards software and services, both sales and net income saw slight declines last quarter compared to Q1 2012. While the trailing P/E of 14 is low, even at that level we’d generally like to see an upward trend in earnings. Fisher Asset Management, managed by billionaire Ken Fisher, had 3.1 million shares of International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) in its portfolio according to the asset manager’s own 13F (find Fisher’s favorite stocks).
Renaissance reported a position of 4.5 million shares in Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK). After a 63% rise in the last year- airlines in general have done well over this time frame- the stock trades at 13 times trailing earnings. The sell-side is bullish on the industry as a whole, and Alaska Air Group is no exception as its forward P/E is only 9 with a five-year PEG ratio of 0.8. We’d be interested in comparing it to national carriers. PAR Capital Management owned 4.1 million shares of the stock at the end of March, unchanged from what the fund had owned three months earlier.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) was another of Renaissance’s cheap picks with the filing disclosing ownership of 1.1 million shares- the largest position out of the filers we track. Analyst expectations for 2014 imply a forward P/E of 8 for the $12 billion market cap nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer manufacturer; fertilizer companies, and those tied to agriculture in general, are typically carrying low earnings multiples in the current market environment. We’d note that analyst forecasts call for a decline in earnings here. Cliff Asness’s AQR Capital Management trimmed its stake by 7% to about 530,0000 shares (check out more stocks AQR owns).
$16 billion market cap cigarette company Lorillard Inc. (NYSE:LO) carries trailing and forward P/Es of 14 and 13, respectively. The fund more than tripled the size of its position in Lorillard between January and March to a total of 4.5 million shares. As with many cigarette companies, Lorillard is quite generous on the dividend front with a current yield of just over 5%, in addition to its low earnings multiples (which actually reflect a discount to many of the company’s peers). Revenue rose 6% in the first quarter of 2013 versus a year earlier, contributing to a larger increase in earnings.
Disclosure: I own no shares of any stocks mentioned in this article.
