Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Too Unloved, Airlines Too Loved

Page 1 of 2

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)On Friday, Mr. Market was down on the world’s largest software company, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT).

Shares of “Mr. Softy” fell nearly 12% after it reported its fourth-quarter earnings. The company missed analysts’ expectations on both earnings and revenue. Sales of its Windows software disappointed. And Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) took a $900 million accounting charge related to its Surface tablet.

In contrast to Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), airline companies are flying high. Shares of companies like Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) and United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) have basically doubled in price over this past year.

Mr. Market and Mr. Softy

Mr. Market is the manic-depressive business partner that legendary value investor Ben Graham created in his book The Intelligent Investor. Graham said investors should think of the market like an erratic business partner who every day offers to either buy your stake in the business or sell you his share.

When Mr. Market is happy, he’s willing to overpay for your shares. But when he’s sad, he’ll sell at almost any price. It’s a simple way to remember that markets aren’t rational, they’re driven by emotion. And you can profit by taking advantage of the extreme optimism and pessimism. Right now, the market is extremely pessimistic on software and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), and extremely optimistic on shares of airline companies. We can take advantage of both situations.

A case of extreme pessimism

Mr. Softy is virtually a monopoly in the operating systems market. It holds roughly 92% of the operating system market. Most people believe Microsoft is all about Windows. But Windows hasn’t been the No. 1 source of sales or profits for three years. If you took Windows away from Microsoft, the stock would still be a bargain today. It would still generate more than $20 billion in operating income.

I’ll go even further. If you took away everything but the two biggest parts of the business (by revenue), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Business Division and Server & Tools, you’d have a stock trading at an enterprise value of less than 8.5 times operating income. Those two divisions now make up nearly 60% of sales and 70% of operating income.

The beauty of this lies in the simplicity. Software is a high profit margin business. Less need for capital expenditures means more profit in the pockets of shareholders. Microsoft’s operating margin and profit margin are 35% and 28%, respectively.

In 2003, investors were willing to pay $26 in share price for every dollar of profit that Microsoft generated. The terms of investing in Microsoft are much different today. As of Monday’s close, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) traded at $32 per share while generating $2.60 in annual profits, $0.92 of which get returned to the owner each year for every share you hold. That’s only 12x earnings and 10.5x next year’s earnings.

Page 1 of 2
Comments
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy
Insider Monkey Small Cap Strategy

Insider Monkey beat the market by 52 percentage points in 24 months. Our beta is only 1.2 (don't click this link if beating the market isn't important to you).

Lists

The 10 Largest Pharmaceutical Companies In the World

The 10 Most Expensive Android Apps

The 9 Most Expensive Designer Bags in the World

The 7 Most Expensive Real Estate in the World

The 10 Most Expensive eBay Items Ever Sold

The 10 Most Expensive iPhone Apps

The 9 Most Expensive Designer Shoes in the World

The 10 Most Expensive Cigarette Brands

The 10 Most Expensive Law Schools in the US

The 10 Best Wall Street Movies

The 10 Most Expensive Golf Clubs Ever Sold

The 10 Most Expensive Golf Memberships

The 10 Best Disney Characters Ever Created

The 8 Best Foods for Gaining Weight

The 10 Most Expensive Colleges in the World

The 7 Most Memorable Ad Campaigns of All Time

The 7 Most Expensive High Schools in the World

The 10 Electric Vehicles with the Longest Range

The 10 Cities with the Worst Drivers in the World

The 10 Most Expensive Dresses Ever Created

10 Islands to Visit Before You Die

10 Famous Celebrities Who Needed Rehab

The 15 Countries with the Largest Oil Reserves

The 10 Most Overused Excuses in the World

The 5 Best iOS Apps You Can’t Get on Android

5 Companies Damaged By Social Media Blunders

The 10 Most Legendary Blues Songs

The 10 Most Lawless Places in the World

4 Reasons China is a Threat to the US

The 17 Most Sugary Drinks in the World

The 10 Most Ruthless Rulers in History

The 10 Greatest Generals in History

Top 8 Travel Destinations for 2015

The 10 Safest Dog Breeds for Children

The 10 Most Stolen Vehicles in the US

The 7 Most Expensive Celebrity Weddings

The 10 Best LoL Teams in the World

Top 10 Worst Marketing Campaigns Ever Produced

Top 5 Diets that Help You Lose Weight

The 10 Best Ways to Stay Awake

7 Artists That Switched Musical Genres

The 10 Most Expensive Cities to Live in New Jersey

The 10 Best High Schools in New York

The 10 Countries With the Least Gender Inequality

The 6 Biggest Musician-Manager Feuds

The 10 Countries with the Cheapest Gas Prices

The 7 Most Theatrical Bands of All Time

The 8 Worst Band Breakups of All Time

The 10 Most Important South American Leaders

The 7 Most Successful Casting Show Winners

Subscribe

Enter your email:

Delivered by FeedBurner

X

Thanks! An email with instructions is sent to !

Your email already exists in our database. Click here to go to your subscriptions

Insider Monkey returned 47.6% in its first year! Wondering How?

Download a complete edition of our newsletter for free!