For the last several years, certain stocks have remained cheap as the overwhelming presence of short sellers have made it more difficult for shares to break out. On July 4, Bespoke Investment Group’s
list of the most heavily shorted S&P 500 stocks was released, showing data as of June 15. A comparison of data from late February
shows that short sellers might finally be leaving some of the most heavily shorted stocks.
||Short Interest vs. Float % February 28, 2013
||Short Interest vs. Float % June 15, 2013
|J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP)
|Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:QCOR)
|Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPPI)
|Deckers Outdoor Corp (NASDAQ:DECK)
|Outerwall Inc (NASDAQ:OUTR)
Back in late February, these five stocks were the most shorted stocks in the S&P 500, and although they are still heavily shorted, you can see the level it has dropped for each stock. The big question is whether or not this could indicate gains for these stocks, or if it has any meaning at all.
Troubled Retailer Catches Short Break
J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) has seen the largest drop in short presence during this time period, but has also seen its stock fall 23%. If the idea of being short is to predict the fall of a stock, then a 23% decline in the stock might also explain why the short presence has fallen, as short targets are reached.
What’s encouraging is that shorts have left with the fall of the stock. This is a very troubled company, one with limited cash and significant revenue declines. However, recently improved traffic levels is a cause for some celebration. But in my opinion, I still don’t see enough signs of improvement to buy in a competitive retail space.
Dust Settles and the Stock Rises
Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:QCOR)’s short presence exploded as its marketing tactics came into question with regulators and tightening insurance coverage surrounding its drug Acthar led to questions of sustainability. Personally, I really like this stock.
It is a company that’s growing at 40% year-over-year and trades at just 10 times next year’s earnings. Moreover, the company has a forward dividend yield of 2.2% and continues to buy back shares. This fact might be the reason that shorts are leaving the stock, and rightfully so.
Shorts Still Hanging On
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPPI)’ sudden slash in guidance due to generic Fusilev pressure has led shares to post a 30% loss in 2013. Back in February, the stock was trading near $12; today it trades at $8. Thus, the short case has always been that growing sales would suddenly fall – they were right – and now after the stock’s fall these shorts have taken profits.
Considering the decline of the stock, I still find that 36.5% of its float being short is very high. This is a company that has lost 51% of its value during the last year, and there are many investors who question the marketing ability and the honesty of this company. Hence, I still think there are too many questions to get excited about any decline in short pressure.
Shifting Sentiment, Reversing Trend
Deckers Outdoor Corp (NASDAQ:DECK) has lost 50% of its value since the end of 2011, and there are many investors who have anticipated additional loss with falling shoe sales. However, Deckers has remained stable, and recent reports from NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE)
and Finish Line Inc (NASDAQ:FINL)
paint a bullish picture for shoe stocks, as sales look to be on the rise.
Deckers Outdoor Corp (NASDAQ:DECK) is a company that is still producing top-line growth, but is trading at just 12 times next year’s earnings at 1.2 times sales. This is a very cheap stock, and the decline in its short presence minus the presence of any real catalysts should be celebrated. Overall, it looks as though sentiment is changing for this stock, and oftentimes that can lead to large gains.
Beating Low Expectations
Outerwall Inc (NASDAQ:OUTR), formerly Coinstar, had seen its stock fall from over $70 to $40 back in late 2012 as its RedBox movie rental growth stalled and fell behind in the streaming market. Yet, in 2013, shares had slowly but surely ticked higher, with gains of 18%.
Much of these gains came during the company’s last earnings report, where revenue continued to slow and net profit fell 58% year-over-year. While these numbers may look discouraging, this is a company that has very low expectations, and is beating those expectations. With it trading at just 12 times next year’s earnings, I think “Outerwall Inc (NASDAQ:OUTR)’ is attractive.